Bush and Iowa

[bushforever]

How was Bush able to edge out Kerry in Iowa?  Looking at the county map for Iowa, Kerry has tons and tons of counties...retaining almost all the ones that Gore had.  Was it just a lack of Dem voter turnout.  I thought turnout was usaully high in that state.  And this was also the state that basically gave Kerry the nomination, almost out of nowhere.  Maybe the concentration in visits to Sioux City helped.

Also, why did Bush do so bad in Wisconsin, after hundreds of trips there to democratic western Wisconsin and the visits to pump up his base in Green Bay, the Fox Cities, Wausau, and Waukesha.  Must be a poor ground game...maybe the slashed tires on Bush-Cheney vans, maybe voter fraud, maybe last minute registration...I don't know.

[J. J.]

Possibly the last minute registrations, but WI is close enough that absentee ballots could swing it.  It's about 11,500 votes and if there are about 23,000 ballots out there, it could shift.  2.9 million votes cast, that is not a lot, under 1%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Possibly the last minute registrations, but WI is close enough that absentee ballots could swing it.  It's about 11,500 votes and if there are about 23,000 ballots out there, it could shift.  2.9 million votes cast, that is not a lot, under 1%.

I think absentee ballot have already been counted in Wisconsin, haven't they?  Unless you're counting military absentees...which won't gain Bush more than a couple hundred votes.  Also provisional ballots, but those will lean toward Kerry if they lean either way at all.

[J. J.]

Possibly the last minute registrations, but WI is close enough that absentee ballots could swing it.  It's about 11,500 votes and if there are about 23,000 ballots out there, it could shift.  2.9 million votes cast, that is not a lot, under 1%.

I think absentee ballot have already been counted in Wisconsin, haven't they?  Unless you're counting military absentees...which won't gain Bush more than a couple hundred votes.  Also provisional ballots, but those will lean toward Kerry if they lean either way at all.

I don't know if they have been counted; in some states they have to have been postmarked by election day.  In others, they are counted at the county level, and are not included in the precincts reporting figure.  Kerry's lead is just a fractional percent and I would expect absentees to be at or above 1%.

[minionofmidas]

Unless Wisconsin's changed the rules since the last election, they're already included.

[CARLHAYDEN]

How was Bush able to edge out Kerry in Iowa?  Looking at the county map for Iowa, Kerry has tons and tons of counties...retaining almost all the ones that Gore had.  Was it just a lack of Dem voter turnout.  I thought turnout was usaully high in that state.  And this was also the state that basically gave Kerry the nomination, almost out of nowhere.  Maybe the concentration in visits to Sioux City helped.

Also, why did Bush do so bad in Wisconsin, after hundreds of trips there to democratic western Wisconsin and the visits to pump up his base in Green Bay, the Fox Cities, Wausau, and Waukesha.  Must be a poor ground game...maybe the slashed tires on Bush-Cheney vans, maybe voter fraud, maybe last minute registration...I don't know.

I had a post on this about six months ago.

For the past twenty years, Republicans in Iowa let the Democrats win the Presidential elections because the Democrats in that state were willing to do the nitty gritty work of soliticiting votes retail.

This year, with a lot of prompting from Rove, Iowa Republicans got out of their easy chairs and gave the Democrats competition. 

[NHPolitico]

I'd always thought Iowa was too dove-ish to support Bush this year. The moral issues had to have trumped them in a major way.

[dougrhess]

How was Bush able to edge out Kerry in Iowa?  Looking at the county map for Iowa, Kerry has tons and tons of counties...retaining almost all the ones that Gore had.  Was it just a lack of Dem voter turnout.  I thought turnout was usaully high in that state.  And this was also the state that basically gave Kerry the nomination, almost out of nowhere.  Maybe the concentration in visits to Sioux City helped.

Also, why did Bush do so bad in Wisconsin, after hundreds of trips there to democratic western Wisconsin and the visits to pump up his base in Green Bay, the Fox Cities, Wausau, and Waukesha.  Must be a poor ground game...maybe the slashed tires on Bush-Cheney vans, maybe voter fraud, maybe last minute registration...I don't know.

Being the center of the early presidential race process, Iowa's had lots of organizing done by the Christian Coalition types ever since Pat Robertson ran. The former Republican govenor, Branstad, also relied on them a lot, especially in beating back Fred (Gopher) Grandy who ran against Branstad in 1998?, I think.

[muon2]

Outside of the large cities the upper midwest has a lot of voters who are conservative, but slightly dovish. However, many of those voters will lean to support the President in times of war, despite their personal feelings for the war. There's just a natural inclination to support the incumbent.

I based my prediction on enough of this sentiment to move IA and WI, but not enough to overcome the Twin Cities in MN. That was good for 2 out of 3, since it looks like the Democratic cities of WI turned out enough to keep that state in their column.

[DFLofMN]

I think BC '04 was really pushing in W. WI, a more conservative socially yet lightly dem. area of the state.  It appears that it did not change that much over 2000