UK General Election 2005 - Blair vs. IDS vs. Kennedy

[Phony Moderate]

What if IDS had survived the VONC and remained as Tory leader for the 2005 General Election? Ironically enough, the Tories didn't poll that badly during his leadership, certainly better than Hague, and about as good as Howard.

The Labour majority would have been about 100, imo.

[You kip if you want to...]

They've polled about what they did in 1997, although Labour's share would be down on 1997. A 100-ish majority is about right.

[afleitch]

Replacing Howard with IDS does not alter the main reasons why Labour got a worse than expected result in 2005. The Tories were not a 'pivot' in that election.

[Phony Moderate]

Replacing Howard with IDS does not alter the main reasons why Labour got a worse than expected result in 2005. The Tories were not a 'pivot' in that election.

It wasn't that worse than expected. Looking at PB.com in the last few days of the campaign, Smithson was predicting a Labour majority of around 80-90-ish.