Jeffords' "One-Term" Bush prediction

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

"I told him that I firmly believe he would be a one-term president."

- Senator Jeffords

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2001-05-25-jeffords-educ.htm

[ATFFL]

"I told him that I firmly believe he would be a one-term president."

- Senator Jeffords

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2001-05-25-jeffords-educ.htm

No one will ever accuse him of being a political genius.

[Reds4]

Well there goes his predictions, saying Bush won't win and the Republicans will lose seats... 0/2!

[Nym90]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

He couldn't be expected to correctly predict that 9/11 would occur.

[Mr. Fresh]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

He couldn't be expected to correctly predict that 9/11 would occur.

I don't think you can call that right off, if we're going into if's you can never tell what would happen if something else hadn't.  Had 9/11 not happened, we would never have had divisive legislation passed in the Congress, and Bush would have 4 years of making up for 2000 with Dems.

[Gabu]

Either way, I don't really think that it's fair to call someone on a wrong prediction he made over three years ago.

[opebo]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

He couldn't be expected to correctly predict that 9/11 would occur.

In all fairness, I think the gay hating strategy would've put him over the top even if he hadn't the good fortune of 9/11.

[Mr. Fresh]

Either way, I don't really think that it's fair to call someone on a wrong prediction he made over three years ago.

He shouldn't have made the prediction then, he predicted unfairly at the time that Bush would be a one-term President.  It's his fault he made the prediction early.

[Gabu]

Either way, I don't really think that it's fair to call someone on a wrong prediction he made over three years ago.

He shouldn't have made the prediction then, he predicted unfairly at the time that Bush would be a one-term President.  It's his fault he made the prediction early.

True.

Okay, he made an incorrect prediction.

...now what?

[Mr. Fresh]

Either way, I don't really think that it's fair to call someone on a wrong prediction he made over three years ago.

He shouldn't have made the prediction then, he predicted unfairly at the time that Bush would be a one-term President.  It's his fault he made the prediction early.

True.

Okay, he made an incorrect prediction.

...now what?

We point it out, and move on. 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

Ya'll still don't get it, do you?  America rejected the values of liberalism in the election of 2004.  And in very pro-Kerry slanted exit polls, "moral values" was still the number one issue (23%).  That 23% would have probably been closer to 30% if the exit polls had truly reflected the vote.

[opebo]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

Ya'll still don't get it, do you?  America rejected the values of liberalism in the election of 2004.  And in very pro-Kerry slanted exit polls, "moral values" was still the number one issue (23%).  That 23% would have probably been closer to 30% if the exit polls had truly reflected the vote.

I for one get it - the lesson learned is that 9/11 was unecessary, overkill.  They were able to win on hatred alone - fear was just icing on the cake!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Jeffords must either officially become a Democrat NOW if he is to seek that party's nomination in 2006, or pray that the Democrats do NOT have a nominee in 2006, or simply retire.

If Jeffords runs for reelection as an independent, and the Democrats have a nominee, then there is an excellent chance the Republicans can recapture that seat.

[Nym90]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

Ya'll still don't get it, do you?  America rejected the values of liberalism in the election of 2004.  And in very pro-Kerry slanted exit polls, "moral values" was still the number one issue (23%).  That 23% would have probably been closer to 30% if the exit polls had truly reflected the vote.

The exit polls that are on CNN's website have been adjusted to reflect the true results, so they are no longer biased.

Yes, the religious right played a big role, and I agree that Bush would not have won without this moral values vote, but I also argue that Bush would not have won without fear of terrorism, either. Both contributed to his victory, and were essential to it. Terrorism was also an issue that was almost as important in the exit polls as moral values, and those who had it as their top concern voted even more overwhelmingly for Bush than the moral values folks did.

Even with these two factors in his favor, Bush only won 51% of the vote and 286 EVs, so while he did win, it wasn't a sweeping repudiation of the Democrats. As I've said before, 252 EVs and 48% of the vote isn't too bad for a Massachusetts liberal who was viewed as weak on terror and as a flip-flopper, and was boring and uncharismatic and utterly failed to connect with the American people on a personal level.

If we had nominated a halfway decent candidate, we would have won.

[GOP Tarheel Blitz]

I am so glad that someone remembered Mr. Jefford prediction. His switch to Independent was for a Senate committee chair in a deal agreed to by Daschle. His switch cost Vermont Dairy farmers the passage of the Northeast Dairy Compact, which needed Republican support for final passage. Lehey (D-VT) represents VT much better, even though I don't agree with his political positions, he looks out for his state. Jeffords is self seeking. He is known as "Jumpin' Jeffords" by my Vermont friends. In '06, I hope he enjoys seeing his Republican voter base split when he runs for re-election.

Jeffords' book MY DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE is a common floor magnet in many Dollar Trees and thrift shops.

[Nym90]

Jeffords must either officially become a Democrat NOW if he is to seek that party's nomination in 2006, or pray that the Democrats do NOT have a nominee in 2006, or simply retire.

If Jeffords runs for reelection as an independent, and the Democrats have a nominee, then there is an excellent chance the Republicans can recapture that seat.

Since he caucuses with the Dems, I highly doubt that any Democrat will oppose him; if a Democrat who is a half way serious candidate jumps into the race against him, I'm sure Jeffords will run for the Dem nomination, and win it.

Even if there was a Dem candidate, Vermont is becoming increasingly liberal; it was the single state where Kerry gained the most over Gore's performance. The collapse of Nader as a factor helped this, but Bush still went down by 2% from 2000 even looking at his percentage alone.

I would imagine that Jeffords is still quite popular in Vermont; is there any polling evidence that his approval rating is low?

[Nym90]

I am so glad that someone remembered Mr. Jefford prediction. His switch to Independent was for a Senate committee chair in a deal agreed to by Daschle. His switch cost Vermont Dairy farmers the passage of the Northeast Dairy Compact, which needed Republican support for final passage. Lehey (D-VT) represents VT much better, even though I don't agree with his political positions, he looks out for his state. Jeffords is self seeking. He is known as "Junmpin' Jeffords" by my Vermont friends. In '06, I hope he enjoys seeing half of his Republican voter base split when he runs for re-election.

Jeffords book MY DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE is a common floor magnet in many Dollar Trees and thrift shops.

Of course, you could look at it both ways. Republicans deliberately wanted to punish him for switching, and thus didn't pass the Compact, right? So why should Jeffords be blamed for following his principles, when the GOP was playing politics with the issue as well? I would think a lot of Vermont voters would be pissed at Republicans for not giving their support to it, and for being petty, and not put the blame on Jeffords.

[GOP Tarheel Blitz]

I am so glad that someone remembered Mr. Jefford prediction. His switch to Independent was for a Senate committee chair in a deal agreed to by Daschle. His switch cost Vermont Dairy farmers the passage of the Northeast Dairy Compact, which needed Republican support for final passage. Lehey (D-VT) represents VT much better, even though I don't agree with his political positions, he looks out for his state. Jeffords is self seeking. He is known as "Jumpin' Jeffords" by my Vermont friends. In '06, I hope he enjoys seeing half of his Republican voter base split when he runs for re-election.

Jeffords book MY DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE is a common floor magnet in many Dollar Trees and thrift shops.

Of course, you could look at it both ways. Republicans deliberately wanted to punish him for switching, and thus didn't pass the Compact, right? So why should Jeffords be blamed for following his principles, when the GOP was playing politics with the issue as well? I would think a lot of Vermont voters would be pissed at Republicans for not giving their support to it, and for being petty, and not put the blame on Jeffords.

Good point, but Jeffords was re-elected in 2000 as a Republican. That is what Vermont voters chose, a Republican senator. I am not from Vermont but I have a few friends up there that voted for Jeffords in 2000. They place the blame on Jeffords like a bullseye. The Northeast Dairy Compact failed in the senate around 9/11. It really hurt the dairy farmers along with the post 9/11 economy which made things worse. I felt bad for them. Jeffords was a sellout for political gain.

[WalterMitty]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

He couldn't be expected to correctly predict that 9/11 would occur.

i disagree.

without 9/11 there would have been no iraq war.  i think it is fair to say that the iraq war did hurt his political standing somewhat.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Jeffords must either officially become a Democrat NOW if he is to seek that party's nomination in 2006, or pray that the Democrats do NOT have a nominee in 2006, or simply retire.

If Jeffords runs for reelection as an independent, and the Democrats have a nominee, then there is an excellent chance the Republicans can recapture that seat.

Since he caucuses with the Dems, I highly doubt that any Democrat will oppose him; if a Democrat who is a half way serious candidate jumps into the race against him, I'm sure Jeffords will run for the Dem nomination, and win it.

Even if there was a Dem candidate, Vermont is becoming increasingly liberal; it was the single state where Kerry gained the most over Gore's performance. The collapse of Nader as a factor helped this, but Bush still went down by 2% from 2000 even looking at his percentage alone.

I would imagine that Jeffords is still quite popular in Vermont; is there any polling evidence that his approval rating is low?

First, little quality polling is done in the small states (at least public polls).

Second, I don't see the evidence that Jeffords is liked in Vermont.

Third, Vermont reelected a Republican Govenor.

[danwxman]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

Ya'll still don't get it, do you?  America rejected the values of liberalism in the election of 2004.  And in very pro-Kerry slanted exit polls, "moral values" was still the number one issue (23%).  That 23% would have probably been closer to 30% if the exit polls had truly reflected the vote.

The "Liberal Massachusetts Senator" won 48% of the vote. Yea, America really rejected those values.

[A18]

Liberals barely improved in Vermont. The apparent big swing is because Nader's 7% collapsed.

[© Tweed the Younger]

In all fairness, this was before 9/11, and if 9/11 had never happened, Bush indeed would likely have lost, and the GOP would probably have lost seats in 2002 as well.

He couldn't be expected to correctly predict that 9/11 would occur.

i disagree.

without 9/11 there would have been no iraq war.  i think it is fair to say that the iraq war did hurt his political standing somewhat.

Iraq still would have happened.

The planning for the Iraq war happened in September 1999, not September 2001.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Jeffords must either officially become a Democrat NOW if he is to seek that party's nomination in 2006, or pray that the Democrats do NOT have a nominee in 2006, or simply retire.

If Jeffords runs for reelection as an independent, and the Democrats have a nominee, then there is an excellent chance the Republicans can recapture that seat.

The Democrats won't let this happen...they used to run candidates against Bernie Sanders until he had a real close call in 1994, and then they just acknowledged that he's as good as a Democrat and stopped nominating anyone.  Sanders has won landslides ever since.  I'm almost certain they will afford the same courtesy to Jeffords...I wouldn't be surprised if they agreed to this as a condition of his switch.

[rbt48]

I think that Jeffords could win reelection as an Independent in Vermont.  Heck, Bernie Sanders does so for their single House seat every two years.  The Democrats don't even bother to field a candidate against him; logical since he votes with the party almost all the time.