Dividing the US into regions

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cute, I was writing a post and my computer tilted !

Anywyas, I was saying that I'll start my state-by-state comparison for Pennsylvania (comparing with the States that compose or coulpd compose the region in which Pennsylvania may be included : ie NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, OH, IN, MI, WV, KY and TN). So I was saying that to do so I will compare the percentages got by each candidate, each time I'll take the lower of the two, and I will sum all this. The more the result is close to 100, the more the states are similar. the more it's close to 0, the more they're different. I'm gonna call this index "similarity rate". For example, I'll calculate similarity rate for PA and NY in the 1884 election :

Candidate	PA	NY
Cleveland	43.46%	48.25%
Blaine	52.97%	48.15%
St. John	1.69%	2.14%
Butler	1.88%	1.46%
Others	0%	0%

So, the similarity rate is 43.46+48.15+1.69+1.46 = 94.76

This is the method I will use for next comparisons, so wait and see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now let's start seriously.

Pennsylvania

1884

- Ohio : 96,52%
- New York : 94.76%
- Indiana : 94%
- New Jersey : 93.8%
- Michigan : 93.36%
- West Virginia : 92.52%
- Tennessee : 92.01%
- Maryland : 91.39%
- Kentucky : 88.14%
- Delaware : 86.9%


1896

- New Jersey : 98.45%
- New York : 96.6%
- Maryland : 93.75%
- Michigan : 92.79%
- Delaware : 92.2%
- West Virginia : 89.44%
- Ohio : 89.2%
- Indiana : 88.31%
- Kentucky : 87.41%
- Tennessee : 84.17%


So, what can we conclude from thos first two elections ? For 1884, not so much : Rust Belt States and Northeast States have more or less the same level of similarity (though Maryland and Delaware  are really low), so I rate this 1st election Inconclusive. As for 1896, the similarity is clearly superior for Northeast, so I rate it Pro-Northeast.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, here's some update of polls (which BTW are still going on, so new voters would be welcome ).

Pennsylvania :
- Northeast : 16 (57%)
- Rust Belt : 12 (43%)

Michigan :
- Rust Belt : 24 (86%)
- Midwest : 4 (14%)

Tennessee :
- Outer South : 16 (73%)
- Deep South : 6 (27%)

Arkansas :
- Deep South : 12 (52%)
- Outer South : 11 (48%)

Missouri :
- Midwest : 15 (58%)
- Outer South : 11 (42%)

Oklahoma :
- Plains : 19 (68%)
- Outer South : 5 (18%)
- Deep South : 4 (14%)

Texas :
- Southwest : 13 (52%)
- Deep South : 12 (48%)

Utah :
- Big Sky : 17 (71%)
- Southwest : 7 (29%)

Threee vote changes taken into account : Vazdul for Missouri and Texas, Opebo for Tennessee.

Majorities increased in Michigan, Tennessee, Missouri and Utah. They narrowed in Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Texas. In Arkansas, the tie has become a narrow Deep South lead.

[Thunder98]

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For Tennessee, East Tennessee is much more Appalachian, while West Tennessee is very much part of the Deep South.  Middle Tennessee, where I live, has characteristics of both, but I feel has slightly more in common with Georgia/Alabama than West Virginia.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh boy, talk about a blast from the past. This was back in the days when my command of English was still a little shaky. Fun times.

Anyway, I've long renounced trying to break up the US into regions based on States. The only way to do it right would be to go down to the county level. I think Muon had a solid attempt in this regard (though I'm not sure I agree with all his choices).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Oh boy, talk about a blast from the past. This was back in the days when my command of English was still a little shaky. Fun times.

Anyway, I've long renounced trying to break up the US into regions based on States. The only way to do it right would be to go down to the county level. I think Muon had a solid attempt in this regard (though I'm not sure I agree with all his choices).

Link to muons thread?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh boy, talk about a blast from the past. This was back in the days when my command of English was still a little shaky. Fun times.

Anyway, I've long renounced trying to break up the US into regions based on States. The only way to do it right would be to go down to the county level. I think Muon had a solid attempt in this regard (though I'm not sure I agree with all his choices).

Link to muons thread?

I don't remember what it's called, but you can PM him. Actually, if he still has it, I'd be grateful if he could bump it so I can keep a record of it.

[muon2]

With a broken search feature it may take me a while to locate. What I can say is that it was based on the 1981 analysis by J. Garreau titled the Nine Nations of North America. Some of the boundaries had shifted by the time of my first map in 2003 and its revision in 2013. I'm already tracking shifts I'll make after the next Census is released.

...

Not as hard as I thought. Fortunately threads about regions come up every few months and I link back to my county-based regions in some of them. By scanning through the board I checked those threads about regions I had replied to and found it in a post about a year ago.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170145.msg3787287#msg3787287

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks!!