Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Smid]

While it would be in Labor's favour to do either, I also think it would be in democracy's favour. The likelihood of 75-75, which means 74-75-1 with the speaker and a government permanently at risk of no confidence without the speaker voting (no tie at 74-75) is real, but with a 151st seat the most equal it could be is 75-75 allowing the speaker to vote. Much better (also for the coalition should they find themselves in such a position one day).

For this reason I have been advocating adding an additional 11 Lower House seats and one Upper House region to the Victorian Parliament - there are presently 88 Districts in the Assembly and 8 Regions (for a total of 40 Members) in the Council. I think it would be better to be 99 Districts and 9 Regions (for a total of 45 Members). I was most concerned about a 44-44 hung Parliament after preparing a simulation based on the "normal" result for each seat and then giving a statewide swing to or against a party, and then an additional smaller swing in each electorate - I ended up with a good number of 44-44 splits (of course, it's theoretically possible the Greens could win a few seats and posibly support the Coalition, lol). Anyway, I think it needs to be done, but whether or not anyone listens to me... I might start lodging submissions to the Electoral Matters Committee for their investigations.

[minionofmidas]

While it would be in Labor's favour to do either, I also think it would be in democracy's favour. The likelihood of 75-75, which means 74-75-1 with the speaker and a government permanently at risk of no confidence without the speaker voting (no tie at 74-75) is real, but with a 151st seat the most equal it could be is 75-75 allowing the speaker to vote.

What about electing a speaker from the ranks of the opposition when attempting to govern with a razor-thin majority?

[Platypus]

While it would be in Labor's favour to do either, I also think it would be in democracy's favour. The likelihood of 75-75, which means 74-75-1 with the speaker and a government permanently at risk of no confidence without the speaker voting (no tie at 74-75) is real, but with a 151st seat the most equal it could be is 75-75 allowing the speaker to vote.

What about electing a speaker from the ranks of the opposition when attempting to govern with a razor-thin majority?

A candidate needs to accept the nomination. None of the coalition MPs would I'd suggest (except maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe the new member for O'Connor, Tony Crook) and I doubt any of the KOWs would, except maybe Katter, just because he's mad, but the government would rather go into opposition I'd suggest.

[You kip if you want to...]

I guess one prerequisite for the Coalition having a realistic chance at forming a government is that they would need at least 73 seats on their own.  Otherwise, even the three conservative Independents wouldn't be enough to get them to 76.  So I guess one question is "What is the probability that they end up dropping below 73 seats?"  This article:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/labor-leads-race-for-minority-government-20100822-13akb.html

suggests that postal votes in Hasluck are likely to be heavily Labor, which could put them over the top there, meaning that the Coalition would drop to 72.  Of course, there are a couple of other too close to call seats where Labor's leading that could well offset this.  How many seats do people think are truly in play at the moment?  Everyone seems to have a different count.

For too close to call, personally, I have Boothby, Hasluck and Brisbane. I'm not willing to give Denison to IND yet either. The preferences are all messed up there.

[Cubby]

Tbh Howard was more brown than blue.

What does this mean? I doubt you mean brown as in "brownshirt". As much as I disliked Howard, he wasn't a committed fascist. You must mean something else.

FWIW, in a ranking of recent anglosphere right-wing leaders, Abbott is near the middle.

David Cameron
John Key
John McCain
Tony Abbott
Stephen Harper
John Howard
George W. Bush

Honestly until this week I thought Abbott was closest to Stockwell Day and Santorum. That list is a huge improvement over my earlier impression of him.

[ag]

[
What does this mean? I doubt you mean brown as in "brownshirt". As much as I disliked Howard, he wasn't a committed fascist. You must mean something else.

I thought that anyone who's heard anything about Howard would have no doubt what brown means in this context. No, he wasn't a committed fascist. He was an instinctive fascist

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm just looking through the results and it's just astonishing that Labor are on course to be the smallest party. They broke party records in Tasmania and Victoria and they hold a majority of the seats in NSW, something which they've never done and then ended up in opposition.

Victoria/Western Australia is, electorally, like an alien nation.

But seriously, if the 3 right-wing INDs go to Abbott, they're really breaking their "we'll go to who we think can govern effectively" line considering the ALP/Green senate numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ABC lists the following as 'doubtful': Brisbane, Boothby and Hasluck. The margins in the first two seem a little high to be overturned (though stranger things have happened), but the last looks up in the air.

[minionofmidas]

So they've called Coramangite now?

[You kip if you want to...]

So they've called Coramangite now?

Yup, ALP hold at 50.8% 2PP, last time I checked.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So they've called Coramangite now?

The previous projection would have been based - in part - on how well the incumbent Liberal did with postal votes in 2007.

[Oakvale]

Am I wrong in thinking that this result would have been different had that nasty bit of political regicide not taken place?

EDIT: I mean, of course it would have been different, but would it have been worse for the ALP? Better? I'm largely ignorant of Australian politics, I have to admit.

[Mr. Morden]

Now it looks like Tony Crook and WA Nationals are saying that they won't support the Coalition unless they get more $ for rural WA??:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/profile-tony-crook-20100822-13azk.html

[redcommander]

So they've called Coramangite now?

Yup, ALP hold at 50.8% 2PP, last time I checked.

Damn I was hoping the Coalition would win it.

[redcommander]

So they've called Coramangite now?

Yup, ALP hold at 50.8% 2PP, last time I checked.

Damn I was hoping the Coalition would win it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Am I wrong in thinking that this result would have been different had that nasty bit of political regicide not taken place?

EDIT: I mean, of course it would have been different, but would it have been worse for the ALP? Better? I'm largely ignorant of Australian politics, I have to admit.

Rudd was pretty unpopular at the time of his fall. I suspect that Labor would have done a bit better in Queensland (polls at the close of his premiership seem to suggest otherwise, but let's be generous), but would have been at risk of a wipe out in Western Australia, would not have made net gains in Victoria and the slump in support in Sydney would have turned into heavy losses in terms of seats.
But that's just my opinion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is fun... 2PP results by metropolitan and non-metropolitan divisions. Call it a game of spot the odd one out...

National

Metropolitan: ALP 52.9
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 47.2

NSW

Metropolitan: ALP 49.0
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 50.5

Victoria

Metropolitan: ALP 59.6
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 46.7

Queensland

Metropolitan: ALP 48.8
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 42.6

Western Australia

Metropolitan: ALP 45.9
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 39.1

South Australia

Metropolitan: ALP 58.3
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 45.4

Tasmania

Metropolitan: ALP 63.5
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 59.2

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So anyone willing to tell me what exactly happened in Melbourne? Why go against the trend (other than Gillard home city advantage - what else?)?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So anyone willing to tell me what exactly happened in Melbourne? Why go against the trend (other than Gillard home city advantage - what else?)?

Well, the trend was largely set by the large swings in Queensland and in Sydney, which were in part a backlash against unpopular-to-hated state governments and in part due to the ever-noxious refugee issue (massive, massive over-simplification). Neither factor applied in Victoria.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

House:

Lyne: Ind 47.1, Nat 35.0, ALP 13.9 (Ind 62 2PP)
New England: Ind 62.3, Nat 25.2, ALP 8.0 (Ind 71.6 2PP)
Kennedy: Ind 47.2, LNP 26.0, ALP 21.5 (Ind 68.7 2PP)

Senate:

Lyne: LNP 45.9, ALP 30.5, Greens 8.1, Shooters & Fishers 3.8
New England: LNP 42.9, ALP 29.5, Greens 7.0, Shooters & Fishers 6.1
Kennedy: LNP 40.7, ALP 27.2, Greens, 6.2, Shooters & Fishers 4.2

Conclusion: none will lose their seats for backing either party.

[Mr. Morden]

Crook says he might switch over to Labor if they agree to get rid of the mining tax:

link

[Mr. Morden]

Bill Shorten to be the next Labor leader?:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/odds-shorten-on-next-labor-leader-20100823-13d2g.html

[You kip if you want to...]

Bill Shorten to be the next Labor leader?:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/odds-shorten-on-next-labor-leader-20100823-13d2g.html

I'd find it ironic if Shorten axed Kevin and Julia.

[You kip if you want to...]

ABC have given Denison back to Labor. Preference counting's still going on, but it looks more likely that the ALP will hold on.

[Barnes]

I don't mean to sound dumb, but can someone please explain the "Two-candidate preferred result" thing to me?