Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

[Smid]

From the ABC numbers, the Lib lead in Hasluck has grown, and is now almost as big as the Labor lead in Corangamite.

Hasluck: Lib lead of 586
Corangamite: Labor lead of 637

Still 11,000 postal votes to count in Corangamite, I'm told. So far they've been going to the Liberals very strongly (hence why Labor's lead yesterday dropped from 1,200 to 637).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

While I disagree with him on a lot of things (OK, most things), Abbott is an incredibly cunning and highly-intelligent person (Rhodes Scholar).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Brisbane has tightened up to 487 votes, as the absentee votes are going heavily in favour of the ALP (the Greens have nearly 30% of the absentee votes, the ALP just over 30% and the LNP has 35%)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hasluck: the Lib lead is just short of 800, I think this is gone.

[Platypus]

They've finished Postal votes in Hasluck, and almost finished Pre-poll, but they've only counted 1/10 of the labor-favouring absentee votes and none of the presumably heaving pro-labor provisional votes...so I wouldn't call it yet.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I do find it funny if Brisbane falls back to the ALP, Corangamite holds (although that gap is down to 500 now) and Husluck slides back - the Gillard is in a far more poweful position at 74-71-4-1

[Platypus]

FWIW, the Hasluck declaration votes:

Absentee
Envelopes issued: 7,775
Envelopes received: 7,372
Votes counted: 744
Votes discounted: 4
Current margin 53.41% to Jackson TPP

Pre-poll
Envelopes issued: 4,791
Envelopes received: 3,718
Votes counted: 3,373
Votes discounted: 6
Current margin 52.22% to Wyatt TPP

Postal
Envelopes issued: 3,739
Envelopes received: 55
Votes counted: 4,053*
Votes discounted: 1
Current margin 54.08% to Wyatt TPP

Provisional
Envelopes issued: 1,566
Envelopes received: 1,566
Votes counted: 0
Votes discounted: 0
No current margin

*Not sure what is happening here


(note: I would extrapolate and guess that Jackson will close the gap by around 600-1000 votes, probably around 800...and she's currently behind by 762.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I’ve done my own seat by seat counts.

Two seats are officially in doubt. http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-156.htm and http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-207.htm

There are two other seats, both leaning Labor, both in NSW, that could still flip.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-128.htm

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-122.htm

There is a final seat, http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-149.htm where the primary count is where things could be different. The smaller parties are more to the left, and, if they preference the Greens higher than the Liberals, the Greens could overtake the Liberals and make it to the TCP. If this were to happen, they may overtake Labor.

Lastly, in O’Connor, the elected member is a WA National. The problem? WA Nationals do not support the coalition that their other National brothers across the country do. There is no guarantee the elected member will sit with the coalition. He is, effectively, an independent until he says otherwise.

This puts Labor at 68 decided seats.

The Coalition at 71.

Others at 6.

And 3 in doubt, all of which, are leaning Labor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Primary vote by party - as things stand now, anyway (not that much ought to change)





As always, bigger versions be on the gallery. More detailed maps are possible at some point in the future, but there's no point for now. Senate vote maps (when done) will use a different key, I think.

[Mr. Morden]

The three seats that haven't been called by ABC:

Corangamite: Labor leads by 724 votes
Hasluck: Coalition leads by 714 votes
Brisbane: Coalition leads by 684 votes

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Husluck is gone... and Brisbane too.

[Mr. Morden]

The ABC has called Hasluck for the Coalition...leaving only Brisbane and Corangamite left.

[Democratic Hawk]

No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

While I disagree with him on a lot of things (OK, most things), Abbott is an incredibly cunning and highly-intelligent person (Rhodes Scholar).

As I've said, my first impressions are not positive. Makes no difference whether he is a Rhodes Scholar or not

[You kip if you want to...]

No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

While I disagree with him on a lot of things (OK, most things), Abbott is an incredibly cunning and highly-intelligent person (Rhodes Scholar).

As I've said, my first impressions are not positive. Makes no difference whether he is a Rhodes Scholar or not

^this.

[Hash]

No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

While I disagree with him on a lot of things (OK, most things), Abbott is an incredibly cunning and highly-intelligent person (Rhodes Scholar).

As I've said, my first impressions are not positive. Makes no difference whether he is a Rhodes Scholar or not

^this.

He may be a nutjob and a scumbag, but he most certainly isn't an idiot.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

While I disagree with him on a lot of things (OK, most things), Abbott is an incredibly cunning and highly-intelligent person (Rhodes Scholar).

As I've said, my first impressions are not positive. Makes no difference whether he is a Rhodes Scholar or not

^this.

He may be a nutjob and a scumbag, but he most certainly isn't an idiot.

Almost makes me feel like we are talking about Stephen Harper!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The gap in Brisbane is still hovering around 800... it should be tightening... I'm not sure it will.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

and ABC has called Brisbane for LNP...

73-72-4-1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trying to work out which parties to do maps of - and where of, actually - wrt the Senate elections.

ALP, Coalition, Greens - everywhere, obviously. If the WA Nats ran on their own (did they?) might be worth doing them on their own.
Family First - they did well enough in three states to justify doing most places, probably. Unless the patterns are really dull elsewhere.
Sex Party - they seemed to have polled around about 2% just about everywhere. Unless I spot some variation when I check a couple more divisions later, I don't think I'll bother.
Shooters & Fishers - a very marked geographical pattern of support (noted when checking the results in the three rural indy seats) means that it probably makes sense to do them for most areas. If only for amusement in urban areas.
Liberal Democrats - not checked for any patterns yet; I would assume that there probably are some though.
DLP - Victoria, obviously. I'm not sure if elsewhere makes sense, but I'm mildly amused at the idea of tracking the support pattern of re-grouped groupers.
Christian Democrats - presumably this would show up a particular nutter demographic quite well, so, yeah. Will do where things look interesting.
Democrats - not sure if I see the point.

Comments welcome.

[Hash]

Sex, Shooters, DLP, Family First (Sanity Last) and maybe the CDP are really worth it. WA Nats did run alone, but they polled 2% and I assume their map would be boring without any interesting patterns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WA Nats did run alone, but they polled 2% and I assume their map would be boring without any interesting patterns.

I've just checked, and the patterns are predictable but interesting; like 22% in O'Connor and 0.6% in Curtin. lol.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A bit outdated now but this is absolutely brilliant.

[You kip if you want to...]

A bit outdated now but this is absolutely brilliant.

Lol, there's one from when Gordon Brown was accused of bulling a staffer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

List of swings.

Be there patterns? Well 12 of the 22 seats with a swing of over 7% are in Sydney and most of the rest are in Queensland. The two exceptions are rural seats in NSW where the ALP did well in 2007 but didn't seriously contest this year. So, yeah. Exactly the pattern you'd expect to see. And of the ten highest swings, five came from inner Sydney divisons; which is interesting as it was previously assumed that Western Sydney would be the zone of electoral collapse.

The highest swing of all came in Fowler (13.2) which is a very working class and 'ethnic' area in Western Sydney and includes the bulk of Liverpool. Interestingly, the ALP did better in the Senate elections there than on House primaries (very unusual in an urban division), suggesting that something strange was going on. Which is interesting, because something strange was going on; the knock-on effect of the abolition of the old division of Reid (the name was given to the re-drawn division of Lowe) meant that Laurie Ferguson (an important figure on the centre-left of the ALP) was left electorally homeless. Fowler was an open seat, but not a suitable home for Ferguson; the local organisation there is controlled by the Right. So (in a bizarre deal in which Gillard apparently played a major role) Chris Hayes (on the Right and then the member for neighbouring division of Werriwa; previous MPs include Mark Latham and Gough Whitlam) became the ALP candidate in Fowler, while Ferguson became the ALP candidate for Werriwa. It's possible that other factors were at work, but that story has not been told here yet.
The second highest swing was in Wentworth (inner far-eastern Sydney, very posh) which is Malcolm Turnbull's seat. It's pretty clear that Labor's vote was greatly inflated there in recent elections; the Greenies nearly overtook them. This fits into a wider pattern of very rich urban divisions, actually.
On the other end of the scale, the ten highest swings to the ALP were in the expected places. Four in Tasmania, three working class Adelaide suburban seats, and three in Victoria; McEwen (a Labor gain), Lalor (Gillard's seat) and Corio (Geelong). Most seats that swung to Labor were in Victoria, and those that weren't were in Tasmania, South Australia or coastal NSW, with the exception of Canning, WA, were Labor had a very good candidate.