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| | |-+  Australian Federal Election - Results Thread
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Author Topic: Australian Federal Election - Results Thread  (Read 18357 times)
Comrade Sibboleth
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« on: August 21, 2010, 02:13:39 am »

And here it is.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2010, 02:24:42 am »

Two exit polls give the ALP narrow leads
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2010, 02:30:55 am »

An exit poll of Herbert (that is, Townsville), Qld, apparently shows a three point swing to the ALP. Wouldn't have thought exit polls of individual constituencies are worth much, but news is news.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2010, 02:31:54 am »
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An exit poll of Herbert (that is, Townsville), Qld, apparently shows a three point swing to the ALP. Wouldn't have thought exit polls of individual constituencies are worth much, but news is news.

That's odd, isn't Townsville a Liberal leaning area?
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The Kingfish
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2010, 02:33:20 am »
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The Coalition is sinking on InTrade.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2010, 02:36:19 am »

An exit poll of Herbert (that is, Townsville), Qld, apparently shows a three point swing to the ALP. Wouldn't have thought exit polls of individual constituencies are worth much, but news is news.

That's odd, isn't Townsville a Liberal leaning area?

It's regional Queensland, so it's difficult to categorise. The Liberal incumbent (who's retiring) narrowly hung on last time, but it was Labor throughout the Hawke-Keating years. Boundary changes give it a notional ALP lead of about three votes or something.

But, as I said, I'm not sure if such surveys of individual constituencies are worth a lot.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2010, 03:12:56 am »

...and the Atlas is back. Other constituency exit polls include (apparently) a big Liberal win in Lindsay and a solid Labor win in La Trobe.

But real numbers very soon now.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2010, 03:16:28 am »
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Tonight could also be another history maker if Liberal Ken Wyatt wins in Hasluck. If he does, he will be the first Aboriginal man elected to the House of Representatives.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2010, 03:16:45 am »
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Watching the TV coverage, they've mentioned three different exit polls of specific constituencies, two that showed unrealistically large swings to Labor, and one that showed an unrealistically large swing to the Coalition.  None of the pundits believe the constituency exit polls.

Meanwhile, on Channel Ten, they mentioned that the national exit poll they did showed Labor winning 52%-48%, but that, oddly, the Coalition was slightly ahead in the actual swing races.
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2010, 03:23:23 am »
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Does Australia have that period were nothing happens for about an hour and a half after the polls close that we, in the UK, have? What time are results expected to start roll in?
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2010, 03:29:36 am »
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Does Australia have that period were nothing happens for about an hour and a half after the polls close that we, in the UK, have? What time are results expected to start roll in?

I noticed that, here is some early results.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/sop.htm
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2010, 03:30:12 am »

Some figures are trickling in at the moment, but they don't mean much. But we'll get meaningful figures quite soon.

Or should.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2010, 03:37:39 am »
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So, there's been no "calls" in any seats yet, there's just leads in raw vote?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2010, 03:41:55 am »
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What's the best website for results?
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2010, 03:43:38 am »
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What's the best website for results?


http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/ i'm using that.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2010, 03:46:07 am »
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Yeah, but where are they showing seat-by-seat results in some kind of logical order?  I go here:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/sop.htm

and I get overall state results.  I go here:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/latest.htm

and I get seat-by-seat results in some kind of random order.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2010, 03:54:35 am »

Those Queensland swings do not look good.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2010, 04:03:50 am »
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In regards to projections, ABC has:
Labor 3
Coalition 0
Independants 1
Greens 0

Labor hold Denison, Braddon and Lyons. On UNS, not that it's worth much, but Braddon was the seat the Coalition would need for a 1 seat majority.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2010, 04:10:02 am »

Tasmania does different, though.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2010, 04:16:25 am »
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Tasmania does different, though.

It's like a sunny Scotland. Tongue
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2010, 04:17:31 am »
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Antony Green thinks that Labor will hold Eden-Monaro against the NSW swing to the Libs. Good news for them.

Also, i'm gonna say I prefer our ways of counting. Tongue
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2010, 04:24:30 am »

Tasmania does different, though.

It's like a sunny Scotland. Tongue

It's not that sunny...

Something like a fifth of my relatives live in Tasmania, btw.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2010, 04:37:03 am »

Interesting pattern now well-established in NSW; Sydney is looking grim for Labor, the rest of the state not so much. Two rural electorates (Eden-Monaro and Page) look to have been held, yet 'safe' Banks is on a knife edge...
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2010, 04:53:14 am »
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26.9% counted so far; looks like the Coalition will win most votes, Labor most seats, but it's not guaranteed. STV can be funny like that...

Labor 63, Coalition 50.
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2010, 04:54:38 am »
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Well duh, the Green transfers.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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