Australian Federal Election - Results Thread
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Author Topic: Australian Federal Election - Results Thread  (Read 50259 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #325 on: September 06, 2010, 10:38:55 PM »

Katter to support Coalition.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #326 on: September 06, 2010, 10:48:33 PM »

Katter is backing the Coalition, but the other two are going ahead with their 3pm press conference....which possibly means that Katter is splitting with the other two, so maybe they're going with Labor?
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #327 on: September 06, 2010, 11:06:23 PM »

So what happens if one of the remaining Independents go with Labor and the other goes with the Coalition?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #328 on: September 06, 2010, 11:11:31 PM »

So what happens if one of the remaining Independents go with Labor and the other goes with the Coalition?

There's a stalemate for a while, as each side tries to convince someone on the other side to defect.  If no one is willing to defect, then I think there would have to be a new election called.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #329 on: September 06, 2010, 11:25:45 PM »

Yep, that would be 75-75... and I HIGHLY doubt that more room could be found.

I would imagine a new election would have to be called before the end of the year.

I think he's done this, in some ways, to put pressure on the other two.  

But as the saying about the Independents "party of three with three factions"
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #330 on: September 07, 2010, 12:10:48 AM »

Windsor to support the ALP
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #331 on: September 07, 2010, 12:31:47 AM »

And Gillard will form Government.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #332 on: September 07, 2010, 01:54:32 AM »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #333 on: September 07, 2010, 04:05:58 AM »

Ah, it's over good. Good.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #334 on: September 07, 2010, 06:58:09 AM »

So you FINALLY picked a winner, eh?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #335 on: September 07, 2010, 08:06:05 AM »

For now. We'll see how long it holds.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #336 on: September 07, 2010, 10:27:59 AM »
« Edited: September 07, 2010, 10:36:53 AM by Sibboleth »

Will the National Party survive this? The whole point of the County Party project was to hold Conservative governments to ransom for goodies and protection for rural areas, something that they've become less and less effective at in recent decades (which is why rural independents and rural protest parties have been doing increasingly well). Now two rural independents have that sort of arrangement with a Labor government and appear (the stress must be on appear) to have done a better job of it than the Nationals have managed for quite a while. And there's no reason why similar arrangements could not be don with future Liberal-led governments. Therefore, what's the point of the National Party? If you want a capital-c Conservative MP, just vote Liberal, if you want Country Person for Country People MP, vote for an independent.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #337 on: September 07, 2010, 01:49:30 PM »

And by 'survive this' I mean 'survive this as an independent-ish force' and not like the National Liberal Party in post-war Britain.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #338 on: September 07, 2010, 05:48:47 PM »

This is why I think Windsor is correct in doing this, and why the Nationals are being so vicious.

The Nationals have been sliding, (not including the LNP) they received 3.8% of the primary vote against say 11.7% for the Greens...

Watch a LOT of country Independents run in 2013 (or ... whenever)
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redcommander
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« Reply #339 on: September 07, 2010, 05:54:34 PM »

Labor will be gone come next election. This government is in an even more precarious position than Cameron's. Expect an election to be called before 2013.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #340 on: September 07, 2010, 07:42:16 PM »

I think IF the Government can last close to full-term and Labor can point to actual achievements, they could be ok... plus I think a few of those QLD and NSW seats will go back to the ALP.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #341 on: September 07, 2010, 07:43:48 PM »

The defeat of the government in NSW will do wonders for Labor's ratings in Sydney. Presumably the same is true of Queensland, but there may be other reasons for concern there.
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Smid
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« Reply #342 on: September 07, 2010, 07:51:55 PM »

Labor will be gone come next election. This government is in an even more precarious position than Cameron's. Expect an election to be called before 2013.

I highly doubt an early election. Still looking into a few things in the Constitution, but I read on Antony Green's blog a few months back that there is a provision in the Constitution preventing an ordinary General Election being called in (I think) the first two years of the life of the Parliament (I think this is something to do with the Senate having to sit for a certain length of time, but haven't found the relevant section yet). The only type of election that can be called in that time is a Double Dissolution, which still takes a while - because legislation has to actually be passed in one House (which takes time) and then be blocked in the other House (while debate is still likely to occur, so even blocking it will take time), and then be passed again in the original House and be blocked again in the other House... so don't expect one of those any time soon. Additionally, the independents are not going to want to squander their opportunity to hold the Government to ransom on every piece of legislation, so they won't want to provide the Government with a DD trigger, nor are they likely to support a no-confidence motion (or blocking a confidence Bill). Perhaps if they were willing to support the Coalition and change governments mid-term, they might support a motion of no-confidence, but I can't see it happening.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #343 on: September 07, 2010, 08:00:29 PM »

I also wouldn't be surprised if Joanna Gash in Gilmore retires before the next election... I think there's a big personal vote there.

Just watch the Coalition go for the jugular, I think Tony Windsor will be fine (his is a deeply personal vote)... but Oakeshott is vulnerable. Personally, I'd not take a Ministry on the chance that this actually turns out to be a bad Government, and not only will the Nationals be baying for your blood, but you're actually 'part of the Government'.
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Smid
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« Reply #344 on: September 07, 2010, 08:11:06 PM »

I also wouldn't be surprised if Joanna Gash in Gilmore retires before the next election... I think there's a big personal vote there.

Just watch the Coalition go for the jugular, I think Tony Windsor will be fine (his is a deeply personal vote)... but Oakeshott is vulnerable. Personally, I'd not take a Ministry on the chance that this actually turns out to be a bad Government, and not only will the Nationals be baying for your blood, but you're actually 'part of the Government'.

I agree completely. My earlier post was only half of a longer post in which I started with... oh, I'll just post it, I'd copied and pasted into Word in case I changed my mind. Here it is:

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #345 on: September 07, 2010, 08:24:29 PM »
« Edited: September 07, 2010, 10:13:23 PM by Fmr Gov. Polnut »

I've always believed that if the Nats want to survive, they need to demonstrate some actual independence.

A lot of Libs consider Nats 'socialists' because of the support they want from the Government. The Libs support it as they don't necessarily have as strong a nation-wide base as the ALP to govern in their own right, and need the Nats, but their economic policy platforms in their foundations are pretty much opposites.

They share social (and degrees of economic) conservatism... that's pretty much it.

I really hope the moderate Libs break-off one day... Smiley
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Smid
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« Reply #346 on: September 07, 2010, 10:09:50 PM »

Found the bit about half Senate elections not being in the first two years of the election...

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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #347 on: September 08, 2010, 12:44:50 AM »

Smid, there could be House-only elections, no? I believe Senate and House elections were not aligned for much of the 1960s and '70s.

Anyhow, I think that at this point it's meaningless to speak of any single National Party as such. In the NT, ACT, and Tasmania, of course, there has never been a National Party. In Queensland alone, the Nats were the establishment, and thus now they have seen fit to rebrand themselves with the Liberal name, as the rural partner in the Coalition is increasingly forgotten. I predict that the LNP will drop the "N" at some point. In NSW and Victoria, the Nationals hold the same sort of position that they hold at Canberra: they are a junior partner to the Liberal Party, and not really all that different. Windsor and Oakeshott, it may be noted, both hold traditionally Country/National seats in NSW. In South Australia, the Coalition became one party long ago. There is a National Party there, but it is independent (having supported Labor until being defeated at the last election) and not very important. In Western Australia, the Nationals are not relly very clear about where they want to be in relation to the Liberals, resulting in the current confidence-and-supply agreement.

The National Party is not a unified national party. The independents in the House provide a more effective means of representation of rural interests, and the Nationals must either follow them or the Liberals. They cannot tread a middle ground.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #348 on: September 08, 2010, 01:22:07 AM »

The problem is that in QLD, the Liberals are the junior partners at the state level and the reverse at the Federal level.

I re-iterate that I think there will be a slew of country independents at the next election... the reason why the Nationals are being SO vicious is because they're worried about being made redundant. All this crowing about best representation since yadda-yadda, it doesn't make a difference, going from 2-3 is still a 50% increase in representation... but in the grand scheme of things... who gives a toss.

These independents are a threat because they're trying to say to regional and rural areas "you don't need the Nationals".
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #349 on: September 08, 2010, 01:26:02 AM »

Smid, there could be House-only elections, no? I believe Senate and House elections were not aligned for much of the 1960s and '70s.

I'd been discussing that last week, but I don't think that would happen... people really hate elections, and I don't think they'd buy into having them offset. Maybe they would, if there is too much instability... I think there was a poll saying people wanted to go back and have a second shot. Anyway, let's wait and see...

Anyhow, I think that at this point it's meaningless to speak of any single National Party as such. In the NT, ACT, and Tasmania, of course, there has never been a National Party. In Queensland alone, the Nats were the establishment, and thus now they have seen fit to rebrand themselves with the Liberal name, as the rural partner in the Coalition is increasingly forgotten. I predict that the LNP will drop the "N" at some point. In NSW and Victoria, the Nationals hold the same sort of position that they hold at Canberra: they are a junior partner to the Liberal Party, and not really all that different. Windsor and Oakeshott, it may be noted, both hold traditionally Country/National seats in NSW. In South Australia, the Coalition became one party long ago. There is a National Party there, but it is independent (having supported Labor until being defeated at the last election) and not very important. In Western Australia, the Nationals are not relly very clear about where they want to be in relation to the Liberals, resulting in the current confidence-and-supply agreement.

The National Party is not a unified national party. The independents in the House provide a more effective means of representation of rural interests, and the Nationals must either follow them or the Liberals. They cannot tread a middle ground.

The LNP is more the other way around, from what I hear. I could tell you a lot about the merger up in Queensland, but it's probably best I don't put any of that into writing. I very much doubt the N will drop out - I hear they already began dropping the P in election material last month...
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