Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now it looks like Tony Crook and WA Nationals are saying that they won't support the Coalition unless they get more $ for rural WA??:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/profile-tony-crook-20100822-13azk.html

That's related to a question I was going to ask --

What - other than a political disaster - would prevent some sort of Labor-National coalition (other than the LNP merger in Queensland)?

It just couldn't happen...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

More than likely - utter political disaster and another election would have to be called.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

While I disagree with him on a lot of things (OK, most things), Abbott is an incredibly cunning and highly-intelligent person (Rhodes Scholar).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Brisbane has tightened up to 487 votes, as the absentee votes are going heavily in favour of the ALP (the Greens have nearly 30% of the absentee votes, the ALP just over 30% and the LNP has 35%)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hasluck: the Lib lead is just short of 800, I think this is gone.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I do find it funny if Brisbane falls back to the ALP, Corangamite holds (although that gap is down to 500 now) and Husluck slides back - the Gillard is in a far more poweful position at 74-71-4-1

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Husluck is gone... and Brisbane too.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The gap in Brisbane is still hovering around 800... it should be tightening... I'm not sure it will.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

and ABC has called Brisbane for LNP...

73-72-4-1

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Two of the Independents, Wilkie and Windsor, say that they'll decide which side to support this week:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/29/2996462.htm?section=justin

Even if the others take longer, this could give us a pretty good idea of which side will end up forming a government.  Wilkie will most likely side with Labor, but Windsor could go either way.

If Wilkie and Windsor, along with Bandt support the ALP, if Katter and Oakeshott support the Coalition that would be 75-75...

The question could therefore be, if Windsor and Wilkie move to the ALP, would that put enough pressure on the other two to move also?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As a Sydney-sider that's easy - the North Shore of Sydney is blue-ribbon Liberal heartland, considerably richer, higher education levels, old-money.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Because it's always been there... it's the area of the large gated estates.

It's either very lush and green... basically, the Greenwich, CT of Sydney - or goes down to the Harbour... basically, the richer you are, the more likely you are to vote for the Liberal Party.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

But... there are many areas along the fringes of the Green-belt... seats like Berowra (will be V curious once Ruddock leaves) and Bennelong, which aren't blue-ribbon demographically, they have loyal Lib pockets, and ALP pockets and swing blocs.

Berowra has the Hornsby - Northern Commuter line which is having an influx of young families and generally... young people (this will be interesting and the seat continues to spread North and West. . Bennelong has the Asian vote in Epping and Eastwood. This is probably the most important bloc to get on-side. The Asian vote embraced McKew in 07, then fled from her in 2010.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It should be finally decided tomorrow morning our time. I have this sick feeling they'll go over to the Coalition at the last minute... we shall see.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is REALLY REALLY starting to give me a headache.

The longer this takes... the more unnerved it makes me.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Katter to support Coalition.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yep, that would be 75-75... and I HIGHLY doubt that more room could be found.

I would imagine a new election would have to be called before the end of the year.

I think he's done this, in some ways, to put pressure on the other two.  

But as the saying about the Independents "party of three with three factions"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Windsor to support the ALP

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And Gillard will form Government.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is why I think Windsor is correct in doing this, and why the Nationals are being so vicious.

The Nationals have been sliding, (not including the LNP) they received 3.8% of the primary vote against say 11.7% for the Greens...

Watch a LOT of country Independents run in 2013 (or ... whenever)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think IF the Government can last close to full-term and Labor can point to actual achievements, they could be ok... plus I think a few of those QLD and NSW seats will go back to the ALP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I also wouldn't be surprised if Joanna Gash in Gilmore retires before the next election... I think there's a big personal vote there.

Just watch the Coalition go for the jugular, I think Tony Windsor will be fine (his is a deeply personal vote)... but Oakeshott is vulnerable. Personally, I'd not take a Ministry on the chance that this actually turns out to be a bad Government, and not only will the Nationals be baying for your blood, but you're actually 'part of the Government'.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've always believed that if the Nats want to survive, they need to demonstrate some actual independence.

A lot of Libs consider Nats 'socialists' because of the support they want from the Government. The Libs support it as they don't necessarily have as strong a nation-wide base as the ALP to govern in their own right, and need the Nats, but their economic policy platforms in their foundations are pretty much opposites.

They share social (and degrees of economic) conservatism... that's pretty much it.

I really hope the moderate Libs break-off one day...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The problem is that in QLD, the Liberals are the junior partners at the state level and the reverse at the Federal level.

I re-iterate that I think there will be a slew of country independents at the next election... the reason why the Nationals are being SO vicious is because they're worried about being made redundant. All this crowing about best representation since yadda-yadda, it doesn't make a difference, going from 2-3 is still a 50% increase in representation... but in the grand scheme of things... who gives a toss.

These independents are a threat because they're trying to say to regional and rural areas "you don't need the Nationals".