Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

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wtf Denison

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Liberal Senator guy says Coalition will get 73, ALP 72, and 5 Ind/Greens. Ugh. Disgusting.

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Liberal Senator guy says Coalition will get 73, ALP 72, and 5 Ind/Greens. Ugh. Disgusting.

I guess the positive thing is that Brandt is definately with the ALP, and Wilkie probably is with the ALP. Who are the 3 INDs likely to go to? All 3 to the Libs?

ALP could buy them on local issues such as hospitals or stuff like that.

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Family Firsters getting 1 Senate seat in SA?

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5 final seats:

Boothby (Lib): 50.4% LIB
Corangamite (ALP): tied
Greenway (ALP not): 50.5% ALP
Hasluck (ALP): 50.5% LIB
Lindsay (ALP): 50.2% ALP

imo, only Corangamite is in doubt for me. so, ALP 71 vs. Forces of Darkness 73.

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ABC projection is ALP 69, COAL 70, GRN 1, IND 4. Which means there's a 6th seat in doubt.

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Bob Katter has a weird voice. He seems like he's dying.

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What's he saying, btw? I've turned the telly-link off for now.

From what I could understand (which is not much), it seems like the 3 old Indies will act as a kind of bloc and they'll be basing their decision largely on regional-local issues.

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ABC now has Canning (Lib) in doubt. Liberals ahead rather 'comfortably' there, but a 2.8% swing to the ALP there.

Tony Windsor sez both Gillard and Hockey have called. He seems to say the same thing as Katter. And now Oakeshott is on ze phone. Thank you for speaking English properly, btw, Rob.

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Fun that of the 4 Indies, 3 are ex-Nats and the latest one is a... ex-Greenie.

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Natties ahead in O'Connor now

Nationals seem to be gaining O'Connor right now, w/ 34% counted. A victory for sanity!

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Senate counting is funny: DLP now has a Senate seat.

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Dear George Brandis,

Plese go DIAF.

Sincerely,
Hashemite

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TPP: ALP 50.54%


why is the ABC ignoring this??

Somebody ought to shove that stuff in George Brandis' face.

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DLP gain in Victoria-Senate holding up it seems. How amusing.

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Is there any kind of general pattern in the swings? It seems like Sydney urban swung much more to the right than rural NSW, but are there are any other noticeable sociological-demographic patterns in swings elsewhere?

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Either way, there's probably gonna be another election soon.

A change of government mid-stream through the term, as happened in 1940, is more likely in my mind. Not necessarily an election. It'd screw up the Senate terms.

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since three of the independents are former Nats I believe, doesnt' that point to a pretty strong chance for a 76 seat majority for a Libnat government?

It certainly isn't as easy or straightforward as that.

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Canada, the UK and Australia all have hung parliaments now under systems that are designed to prevent such situations.

No party has a majority of seats in Zimbabwe's parliament, which is elected using FPTP, either

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What's up with Denison?  Why does the AEC show Labor winning because the Lib was in second place, but ABC thinks Wilkie was second and thus got elected with preferences?

state electoral commish in Australia are often very late in changing 2PP results when they're not lib vs. alp. I remember it took them a long, long time in SA during the 2009 Frome by-election, long time after everybody knew Geoff Brock the indie had won.

The Democratic Labor Party that elected a Senator today isn't the same one as the group that allowed the Liberals to recieve the votes of Catholic workers back in the day, is it?

It's a re-founded DLP. Re-grouped Groupers. Haha.

the DLP's win is one of those fun fluke of STV things, just like Family First-Sanity Last's "win" in 2004. Ironically, I think the DLP got less votes today than FFP but still won a seat while Fielding got creamed bad.

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I actually do miss Howard, yeah.

Please change your avatar to blue.

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Lingiari?

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Now it looks like Tony Crook and WA Nationals are saying that they won't support the Coalition unless they get more $ for rural WA??:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/profile-tony-crook-20100822-13azk.html

That's related to a question I was going to ask --

What - other than a political disaster - would prevent some sort of Labor-National coalition (other than the LNP merger in Queensland)?

What - other than a political disaster - would cause African Americans to vote Republican in the mid-terms this year?

(okay, probably a little more chance of the Nationals going off and having a Coalition with Labor, but you get the point... the Coalition has been around for about 80 years now - longer than the Liberal Party has been in existance in its current form).

Didn't the Nationals have a coalition with Labor at the provincial level somewhere until recently?

SA Nationals aren't affiliated with the national party.

It cost them their only seat in SA in March as well.

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No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

While I disagree with him on a lot of things (OK, most things), Abbott is an incredibly cunning and highly-intelligent person (Rhodes Scholar).

As I've said, my first impressions are not positive. Makes no difference whether he is a Rhodes Scholar or not

^this.

He may be a nutjob and a scumbag, but he most certainly isn't an idiot.

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Sex, Shooters, DLP, Family First (Sanity Last) and maybe the CDP are really worth it. WA Nats did run alone, but they polled 2% and I assume their map would be boring without any interesting patterns.