Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

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And here it is.

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Two exit polls give the ALP narrow leads

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An exit poll of Herbert (that is, Townsville), Qld, apparently shows a three point swing to the ALP. Wouldn't have thought exit polls of individual constituencies are worth much, but news is news.

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An exit poll of Herbert (that is, Townsville), Qld, apparently shows a three point swing to the ALP. Wouldn't have thought exit polls of individual constituencies are worth much, but news is news.

That's odd, isn't Townsville a Liberal leaning area?

It's regional Queensland, so it's difficult to categorise. The Liberal incumbent (who's retiring) narrowly hung on last time, but it was Labor throughout the Hawke-Keating years. Boundary changes give it a notional ALP lead of about three votes or something.

But, as I said, I'm not sure if such surveys of individual constituencies are worth a lot.

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...and the Atlas is back. Other constituency exit polls include (apparently) a big Liberal win in Lindsay and a solid Labor win in La Trobe.

But real numbers very soon now.

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Some figures are trickling in at the moment, but they don't mean much. But we'll get meaningful figures quite soon.

Or should.

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Those Queensland swings do not look good.

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Tasmania does different, though.

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Tasmania does different, though.

It's like a sunny Scotland.

It's not that sunny...

Something like a fifth of my relatives live in Tasmania, btw.

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Interesting pattern now well-established in NSW; Sydney is looking grim for Labor, the rest of the state not so much. Two rural electorates (Eden-Monaro and Page) look to have been held, yet 'safe' Banks is on a knife edge...

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Lindsay and Greenway are both extremely close.

Labor gain McEwen.

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Situation so far, I think.

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Wilkie will probably win in Denison due to voting preferences from Liberal and Green voters.

Complicated; depends on how the preferences flowed and on the postal votes. The latter point goes for a lot of seats, actually...

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I was about to post the same sort of thing!

It's also looking difficult for Labor in Grayndler should the Greens finish second, which they currently at.

Labor first preferences are about 46%; ought to be enough to hang on.

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Did the Liberals give any preference recommendations?

Oh they usually preference Greens in seats like that. To be pricks.

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Ah, rural Tasmania safe Labor, the central Hobart seat not Labor. What decade is this? The 1960s?

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That reprehensible Nazi Wilson Tuckey might lose to a National in O'Connor. Might.

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Remember the postal votes everyone...

Liberal Senator guy says Coalition will get 73, ALP 72, and 5 Ind/Greens. Ugh. Disgusting.

I guess the positive thing is that Brandt is definately with the ALP, and Wilkie probably is with the ALP. Who are the 3 INDs likely to go to? All 3 to the Libs?

They are all ex-Nats, but they all have 'issues' with their former party. It's going to be complicated.

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Green thinks that Lindsay, Greenway and Corangamite will all stay Labor.

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Quite a few calls are probably premature; they really ought to wait until the situation wrt the postals is clear.

Anyway... as per ABC...

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(Which means those missing precincts must be Coalition areas.)

Not always; sometimes there are errors, sometimes there are problems caused by boundary changes.

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Longest serving MP to lose (probably; it's on 50.6 with 68% counted) is Arch Bevis, who'd held the division of Brisbane since 1990. Basically a victim of boundary changes.

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Bob Katter has a weird voice. He seems like he's dying.

He's from Northern Queensland...

What's he saying, btw? I've turned the telly-link off for now.

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Senate counting is funny: DLP now has a Senate seat.

For real? How amusingly retro.

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Natties ahead in O'Connor now

Nationals seem to be gaining O'Connor right now, w/ 34% counted. A victory for sanity!

Ah, so he of the iron bar lost. About time.