1916

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Remember how everyoneway saying that no president had narrowly won reelection since 1916? 

Well, if you look at that election, it was remarkably similar to this one.   Wilson won a clear, 3% plurality in the popular vote, but had to stay up until the next morning to realize he had won a very narrow majority of the electoral vote.  And the division of the map looks very familiar too, with Hughes winning the big Northeast and Midwest states while Wilson rung up huge margins in the South.

[JNB]

 In 1916, while Wilson won a narrow victory, the GOP gained a majority in the house and senate that year. Despite the outward projection of liberalism, President Wilsons power base was a combination of the Dixiecrats and WJ Bryan Populists.

[rbt48]

Actually, the Democrats retained control of Congress as a result of the 1916 elections.  In the U.S. Senate, it was 53D, 42R, with one other.  In the House, it was 210D, 216R, with nine others.  However, Democrats organized the House of Representatives with the help of other parties.  On April 2, 1917, in the vote for Speaker, Representative Champ Clark, D-Missouri, received 217 votes (all Democrats and all but one of the nine independents).  The Republican leader, Representative James Mann, received 205 votes, and two other Republicans garnered 2 votes each.  There were also two abstentions and, apparently, seven absences and vacancies.  Control of the House had been in doubt, but the independents (including a Socialist and a Progressive) broke heavily in favor of the Democrats.

In the 1918 mid-term elections, the Republicans won back the House 237 to 191 (7 others) and the Senate 48 to 47 (1 other who voted with the Repubicans on organizational matters).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Demographic changes (some HUUUUUGE) make comparing the maps directly a little silly... but it's a good point nonetheless.

[PBrunsel]

Hughes would have won California is on November 6, 1916 (the day before the election) he had met with popular California Governor Hiram Johnson and not canceled it to play croquet.

[rbt48]

One aspect of the analogy to 1916 that rings particulary true is the wartime President consideration.  Wilson ran on the slogan "don't change horses in mid-stream," (or words close to that).  He was essentially a wartime President even though we were theoretically a neutral at the time of the election.  The House voted to declare war on April 2, 1917, immediately after retaining Champ Clark as Speaker.

Hughes would have won California is on November 6, 1916 (the day before the election) he had met with popular California Governor Hiram Johnson and not canceled it to play croquet.

Yes, and Hughes would have won with California.  Wilson carried the state by 0.34% and had Hughes won there, he'd have been elected 267 - 264 instead of his actual 277 - 254 loss.

[cabville]

Remember how everyoneway saying that no president had narrowly won reelection since 1916? 

Well, if you look at that election, it was remarkably similar to this one.   Wilson won a clear, 3% plurality in the popular vote, but had to stay up until the next morning to realize he had won a very narrow majority of the electoral vote.  And the division of the map looks very familiar too, with Hughes winning the big Northeast and Midwest states while Wilson rung up huge margins in the South.

One significant difference is that Woodrow Wilson appeared likely to lose California and therefore the electoral college the night before. 

this in this case, both Fox News and NBC News had called Ohio for Bush prior to 1:00 a.m. Eastern Time all but guaranteeing a Bush victory.  Almost an hour before that, the Bush campaign was convinced they had won Ohio.

the fact that it took until noon E.S.T.  the next day to call the race for Bush was amongst the most ridiculous things I have seen.  It drew things out quite a bit, but everybody knew how it was going to end. By 1:30 a.m. Eastern time Bush's victory in Ohio was beyond dispute.  Yet nobody except for Fox and NBC News would call it. 97 percent of the precincts were in, the remaining 3 percent were Republicans counties, and the lead was 130,000 votes with an insufficient number of provisional balance to make any difference. .Yet it would take nine more hours for anybody else to call the state. 

[rbt48]

I agree with you about the delay in calling Ohio.  The exchange between Dan Rather and Ed Bradley on CBS about 3 AM EST was hilarious (and pathetic).