US Regions - Arkansas

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here are the two regions materialized on maps, in order to avoid confusion (light shades mean hypothetical).

Outer South :

Deep South :

Please try to think about these options out of their context : the question isn't about the regions themselves, just about Arkansas.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Voted Deep South, mainly due a larger African-American population and historically more racial tension than in Outer South states.

[Brittain33]

Voted Deep South, mainly due a larger African-American population and historically more racial tension than in Outer South states.

Voted Outer South, mainly due to a smaller African-American population and historically less racial polarization in voting than in Deep South states.

I applied the same rationale to Tennessee, too.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Voted Deep South, mainly due a larger African-American population and historically more racial tension than in Outer South states.

Voted Outer South, mainly due to a smaller African-American population and historically less racial polarization in voting than in Deep South states.

I applied the same rationale to Tennessee, too.

Let's not forget that Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were Wallace states, where Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia weren't.

[Brittain33]

Let's not forget that Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were Wallace states, where Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia weren't.

I would note that Arkansas voted much more similarly to Tennessee than to any of the Deep South states in that election, and that the absence of a Republican heritage in any significant part of the state accounted for much of the difference--no longer a factor.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Let's not forget that Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were Wallace states, where Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia weren't.

I would note that Arkansas voted much more similarly to Tennessee than to any of the Deep South states in that election, and that the absence of a Republican heritage in any significant part of the state accounted for much of the difference--no longer a factor.

1952-56: Arkansas voted for Stevenson both times; Tennessee voted for Eisenhower both times. In '52 Stevenson carried Kentucky and West Virginia by narrower margins than he carried Arkansas, and in '56 he lost both Kentucky and West Virginia. Stevenson handily carried the other Deep South states.

1928: Smith carried Arkansas by 21 points while losing Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. The other Deep South states voted for Smith.

1924: Davis carried Arkansas and the other Deep South states by double-digit margins. He also carried Tennessee by 9 points, but lost Kentucky and West Virginia.

1920: Cox carried Arkansas and the other Deep South states while losing Tennessee and West Virginia, and carrying Kentucky by less than one point.

1916: Wilson's margins in Arkansas and the other Deep South states were wider than his margins in Tennessee and Kentucky. Wilson lost West Virginia.

[tpfkaw]

I would say that it was historically closer to the Deep South states, but is now much closer to the Outer South states.

[Brittain33]

You're supporting my point. Back when people voted for reasons that didn't match up with modern ideology, a big chunk of Tennessee had a Republican heritage dating back to the Civil War, Arkansas didn't. This distinction is now falling by the wayside and renders historical differences less relevant.
You'll note that Arkansas votes much more like Tennessee and Kentucky than like Mississippi and Alabama when you look at recent elections.

I mean, look at the early 1940s, that was the last time West Virginia voted more Republican than Virginia until the 2000s. I'm not sure what the purpose if of diving down through three or four strata of history.

Let's not forget that Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were Wallace states, where Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia weren't.

I would note that Arkansas voted much more similarly to Tennessee than to any of the Deep South states in that election, and that the absence of a Republican heritage in any significant part of the state accounted for much of the difference--no longer a factor.

1952-56: Arkansas voted for Stevenson both times; Tennessee voted for Eisenhower both times. In '52 Stevenson carried Kentucky and West Virginia by narrower margins than he carried Arkansas, and in '56 he lost both Kentucky and West Virginia. Stevenson handily carried the other Deep South states.

1928: Smith carried Arkansas by 21 points while losing Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. The other Deep South states voted for Smith.

1924: Davis carried Arkansas and the other Deep South states by double-digit margins. He also carried Tennessee by 9 points, but lost Kentucky and West Virginia.

1920: Cox carried Arkansas and the other Deep South states while losing Tennessee and West Virginia, and carrying Kentucky by less than one point.

1916: Wilson's margins in Arkansas and the other Deep South states were wider than his margins in Tennessee and Kentucky. Wilson lost West Virginia.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

You're supporting my point. Back when people voted for reasons that didn't match up with modern ideology, a big chunk of Tennessee had a Republican heritage dating back to the Civil War, Arkansas didn't. This distinction is now falling by the wayside and renders historical differences less relevant.
You'll note that Arkansas votes much more like Tennessee and Kentucky than like Mississippi and Alabama when you look at recent elections.

I mean, look at the early 1940s, that was the last time West Virginia voted more Republican than Virginia until the 2000s. I'm not sure what the purpose if of diving down through three or four strata of history.

Politically, the distinction between the Deep South and the Outer South is blurring, which is why we have to look at historical trends.

2008: Arkansas' results were closer to Louisiana's than any other state in either the Deep South or the Outer South.

2004: Arkansas voted more Democratic than any other state in either the Deep South or Outer South.

2000: This election is the one that most proves your point. Arkansas voted closer to Tennessee and West Virginia than to any of the Deep South states, but these resullts are somewhat "artificial" Al Gore was on top of the Democratic ticket, and he was an incumbent Vice President under a popular incumbent President from Arkansas. This served to increase Democratic percentage in both states.

1992-96: Clinton/Gore.

1988:  Arkansas voted less Republican than Tennessee and the other Deep South states, but more Republican than Kentucky or West Virginia.

1984: Arkansas was closer to the other Deep South states than to Tennessee or West Virginia.

1980: Arkansas was close to both the Deep South and the Outer South.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Also, could you explain to me how Arkansas' lack of a historically Republican stronghold (a trait that Arkansas shares with the other Deep South states, but not with Tennessee) makes Arkansas more similar to Tennessee than to the other states that share that same trait?

[muon2]

I'm for the Deep South here. Vazdul has made several good arguments from the political side. Demographically it fits well with the rest of the Delta region. Many cite the affinity with TN, but I would look at it from the perspective that the Memphis area is demographically also part of the Delta. It's true that the black population falls off in both AR and TN compared to the others identified in dark blue. That's more a function of the historical Cotton Belt, but the major commercial centers in AR and TN were similar to their counterparts further south.

[Brittain33]

Also, could you explain to me how Arkansas' lack of a historically Republican stronghold (a trait that Arkansas shares with the other Deep South states, but not with Tennessee) makes Arkansas more similar to Tennessee than to the other states that share that same trait?

The main issue, which Muon references below, is the lack of a large minority population. AR's is almost exactly equal to TN's by %. This meant that voter behavior by the white majority has been determined by other factors more than block voting in racially polarized elections.

But ultimately I can't put this as an I'm right, you're wrong kind of situation.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Outer South.

Like the rest of the Outer South, it's substantially less racially-polarized than the Deep South.

In 2008, Barack Obama took 30% of the white vote in Arkansas and 34% in Tennessee, compared to 11% in Mississippi and 10% in Alabama.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I'm gonna come out in favor of the Outer South. Just FYI, I won't take into account my vote in these polls (as anyways I'm free to decide everything ). I just need to vote in order to see the results.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Well, I'm gonna come out in favor of the Outer South. Just FYI, I won't take into account my vote in these polls (as anyways I'm free to decide everything ). I just need to vote in order to see the results.

Or you could just click on the link that says "View Results."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I'm gonna come out in favor of the Outer South. Just FYI, I won't take into account my vote in these polls (as anyways I'm free to decide everything ). I just need to vote in order to see the results.

Or you could just click on the link that says "View Results."

If you had looked at the polle before voting, you'd have noticed that there was no "view results" option. Why ? Because when starting the poll I've ticked the option "only show results after someone has voted". I took this precaution because I didn't want voters to be influentiated by the poll's results.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump.

This poll is pretty close so new votes would be welcome.

[Del Tachi]

Arkansas belongs in the outer south for several reasons:

-The plantation economic system was not a prevelent in Arkansas as it was in MS, AL, GA and other "deep south" states.
-The African-American population in Arkansas is not as large as it is in the Deep South.  In addition to this, the most common ancestry in Arkansas is "American" not "African".  The only other states with "American" as their most common ancestry are TN, KY, and WV.
-White voters in Arkansas are much less polarized that they are in the Deep South.
-Arkansas has been trending Republican in recent years, the Deep South has been trending Democrat or not trending at all.
-There is a lot more unionized labor in Arkansas (mainly due to the mining industry in the Ozark mountains)

[memphis]

Easily Upper South.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Arkansas belongs in the outer south for several reasons:

-The plantation economic system was not a prevelent in Arkansas as it was in MS, AL, GA and other "deep south" states.
-The African-American population in Arkansas is not as large as it is in the Deep South.  In addition to this, the most common ancestry in Arkansas is "American" not "African".  The only other states with "American" as their most common ancestry are TN, KY, and WV.
-White voters in Arkansas are much less polarized that they are in the Deep South.
-Arkansas has been trending Republican in recent years, the Deep South has been trending Democrat or not trending at all.
-There is a lot more unionized labor in Arkansas (mainly due to the mining industry in the Ozark mountains)

Yeah I really don't see why this is even close. I've never heard of anyone considering Arkansas to be "Deep South" before.

[muon2]

Arkansas belongs in the outer south for several reasons:

-The plantation economic system was not a prevelent in Arkansas as it was in MS, AL, GA and other "deep south" states.
-The African-American population in Arkansas is not as large as it is in the Deep South.  In addition to this, the most common ancestry in Arkansas is "American" not "African".  The only other states with "American" as their most common ancestry are TN, KY, and WV.
-White voters in Arkansas are much less polarized that they are in the Deep South.
-Arkansas has been trending Republican in recent years, the Deep South has been trending Democrat or not trending at all.
-There is a lot more unionized labor in Arkansas (mainly due to the mining industry in the Ozark mountains)

Yeah I really don't see why this is even close. I've never heard of anyone considering Arkansas to be "Deep South" before.

The reason why is that in terms of demographic and voting patterns the division of the old Confederacy makes more sense east-west rather than north-south. Separate the states bordering the Atlantic from the rest that border the Mississippi or Gulf alone (i.e. AL). A north-south divide rests too much on the Cotton Belt, when there are many other factors that go into voting behavior.