swing states 2008?

[WalterMitty]

what will be the swing states for 08?  i know it impossible to tell becayse we dont know who the candidates willbe, nor do we know the main issues in the campaign.

1.  pennsylvania. 
2.  florida
3.  wisconsin
4.  michigan (much more competitive than the dems would have liked)
5.  new jersey.  (yes, i think the republicans, if they play their cards right (always a big if), have a chance at making a run at nj again.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends on candidates. Obviously barring "Voinovich for President" Ohio will be a swing state...

[Ben.]

Impossible to say, a lot will depend on the type of candidates the party’s select, if the Dems select a southern moderate Warner, Lincoln, Nelson etc.. then states like AR, TN, VA could be in play on the other hand if the Republicans nominate a moderate GOP centrist such as Pataki, Hagel, Snowe etc.. then states like NJ, MI, ME, WA could be in play. On top of all this the state of the economy, the situation abroad all could have an impact that is simply impossible to judge right now.

However some states, I would argue can largely be taken as “solid” for either party…



Democrat “Base States” : 168 EV

Republican “Base States” : 140

Tossups : 230

…and in reality there’s really nothing else that can be said.

[danwxman]

what will be the swing states for 08?  i know it impossible to tell becayse we dont know who the candidates willbe, nor do we know the main issues in the campaign.

1.  pennsylvania. 
2.  florida
3.  wisconsin
4.  michigan (much more competitive than the dems would have liked)
5.  new jersey.  (yes, i think the republicans, if they play their cards right (always a big if), have a chance at making a run at nj again.)

Heh, you just mentioned the Dem states that are vulnerable....Now how about all the Republican states that are:

Florida
Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico
Nevada
Colorado
Missouri
Arkansas
Arizona
Virginia

A strong Democrat could carry all those.

[WalterMitty]

Depends on candidates. Obviously barring "Voinovich for President" Ohio will be a swing state...

i disagree.  ohio is pretty republican.  the lousy economy in ohio made it very close this year. 

[freewayticket]

My top 10 in '08.

1.    Ohio
2.    Florida
3.    Pennsylvania
4.    Wisconsin
5.    Minnesota
6.    Iowa
7.    Michigan
8.    Colorado
9.    New Mexico
10.  Arizona

[WalterMitty]

what will be the swing states for 08?  i know it impossible to tell becayse we dont know who the candidates willbe, nor do we know the main issues in the campaign.

1.  pennsylvania. 
2.  florida
3.  wisconsin
4.  michigan (much more competitive than the dems would have liked)
5.  new jersey.  (yes, i think the republicans, if they play their cards right (always a big if), have a chance at making a run at nj again.)

Heh, you just mentioned the Dem states that are vulnerable....Now how about all the Republican states that are:

Florida
Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico
Nevada
Colorado
Missouri
Arkansas
Arizona
Virginia

A strong Democrat could carry all those.

yeah.  virginia is a swing state.  weve heard this song before...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends on candidates. Obviously barring "Voinovich for President" Ohio will be a swing state...

i disagree.  ohio is pretty republican.  the lousy economy in ohio made it very close this year. 

I don't see it getting much better soon... although seeing as the only part of Ohio I get a lot of news out of is the Upper Ohio Valley (not techinically or even geographically correct, as the Ohio doesn't really have an upper section, due to it being the merger of two other rivers. Oh well. You know what I mean...) which hasn't had economic good times in living memory...

[Blue Rectangle]

A pro-choice Republican nominee would make Colorado a swing state (among others, MO and VA come to mind).

[Sam Spade]

A socially conservative Democrat opens up the outer edges of the South, like Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Florida, Kentucky (maybe), Virginia (not likely) and parts of the Southwest, like Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada.

A little bit more of a socially liberal Republican opens up parts of the mid-Atlantic, like Delaware, New Jeresy, Connecticut, and places like Maine and New Hampshire and parts of the west coast like Washington and Oregon.  Also this type of person gives the Reps a shot at California and Illinois, which both have socially liberal, yet leaning Republican types of suburbs.

Otherwise, it'll end up just like now.

[Alcon]

SamSpade, social conservatism plays well in rural Oregon - enough to outvote Portland, perhaps, but it does not in Seattle. Frustratingly to rural Republicans in Washington, the more they like a candidate, the more Seattle hates it. And Seattle will then proceed to outvote them.



I think Washington and Oregon have solidified for the Democrats, and West Virginia for the Republicans. It depends on the candidate in Oregon, though.

Nevada and Colorado will become swing states (Nevada's already there)  because of increased population, especially Hispanic. I note Nevada because it is on its way to becoming an important swing state - not a huge one, but still an interesting one.

Iowa continues to trend Republican. I think it will become a Republican-leaning swing state eventually, but never a Republican stronghold in the near future. Minnesota I think hit its peak in 2000 and will remain slightly Democratic-leaning. Same with Wisconsin.

Michigan's social conservatism could come into play. Same goes for Pennsylvania. New Hampshire is trending Democratic, but not fast enough to make the "solid northeast." Maine's CD1 should remain steady. CD2 will be a toss-up as will, to a lesser extent, the statewide.

I think minority vote will help determine Florida. New Mexico is a case of a combination of the minority vote and whether areas of high Native American/Hispanic population and the big cities outvote the military areas and rural areas. However, looking at a county map, I can't see how Kerry lost New Mexico...so I don't know what to think there.

[A18]

Who are some social conservative Democrats? I don't know of any.

[Gabu]

Personally, I think that declaring "these states will be swing states; these states will not be" at this time is pointless, since we have no idea.  It depends on what happens in the next four years and on what the Democratic and Republican tickets are.  Under Clinton in 1992, Clinton carried TN, KY, and GA and had NC and even TX within his reach.  Under Kerry in 2004, on the other hand, the swing states were much closer to traditionally strongly Democratic territory and a lot more states were strongly Republican.  It all depends.

[J-Mann]

what will be the swing states for 08?  i know it impossible to tell becayse we dont know who the candidates willbe, nor do we know the main issues in the campaign.

1.  pennsylvania. 
2.  florida
3.  wisconsin
4.  michigan (much more competitive than the dems would have liked)
5.  new jersey.  (yes, i think the republicans, if they play their cards right (always a big if), have a chance at making a run at nj again.)

Heh, you just mentioned the Dem states that are vulnerable....Now how about all the Republican states that are:

Florida
Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico
Nevada
Colorado
Missouri
Arkansas
Arizona
Virginia

A strong Democrat could carry all those.

Of those you mentioned, maybe only Virginia, Arizona, and Colorado can be considered truly Republican.  All of those except Virginia voted for Clinton at least once...it's not as if the Republicans have a lock on them and are now suddenly vulnerable.  That's not true, though, for the Democrat states.

[A18]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

[J-Mann]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

[Gabu]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

Well, yeah, but it happened, and that was only 16 years ago, so we really have no idea what could be the case come 2008.

[J-Mann]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

Well, yeah, but it happened, and that was only 16 years ago, so we really have no idea what could be the case come 2008.

12 years ago, Gabu!  12!  You're making us all older than we really are!

[© tweed]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

[A18]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

Being a Democrat in Montana probably means not wanting to abolish public schools.

[Alcon]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

Being a Democrat in Montana probably means not wanting to abolish public schools.

Actually, Montana is a very Libertarian state from what I gather. They passed medical marijuana. They went for Clinton in 1992 albeit with insane amounts of help from Perot.

[A18]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

Being a Democrat in Montana probably means not wanting to abolish public schools.

Actually, Montana is a very Libertarian state from what I gather. They passed medical marijuana. They went for Clinton in 1992 albeit with insane amounts of help from Perot.

I know. That's the point to the joke.

Democrat = Big Government
Big Government in Montana = Public Schools

Get it? Haha? Nevermind.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm going to take things in a whole new direction.  I'm predicting some moderate changes in both parties in the next four years, and the departure of the most divisive President evar.  The 2008 Swing States:

2004/2008 Swing states:
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Washington

2008 New Swing States:
New Jersey
Connecticut
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
California
South Dakota

2004 Swing states that will turn solid Democrat:
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Michigan

2004 Swing states that will turn solid Republican:
Florida
Missouri
Colorado
Nevada

I think that covers them all...

[Nation]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

Being a Democrat in Montana probably means not wanting to abolish public schools.

Actually, Montana is a very Libertarian state from what I gather. They passed medical marijuana. They went for Clinton in 1992 albeit with insane amounts of help from Perot.

I know. That's the point to the joke.

Democrat = Big Government
Big Government in Montana = Public Schools

Get it? Haha? Nevermind.

I got it, heh.

[Alcon]

I'm going to take things in a whole new direction.  I'm predicting some moderate changes in both parties in the next four years, and the departure of the most divisive President evar.  The 2008 Swing States:

2004/2008 Swing states:
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Washington

2008 New Swing States:
New Jersey
Connecticut
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
California
South Dakota

2004 Swing states that will turn solid Democrat:
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Michigan

2004 Swing states that will turn solid Republican:
Florida
Missouri
Colorado
Nevada

I think that covers them all...

Wow...South Dakota? What exactly is going to be happening here?