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| | |-+  2010 House Election Polls (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | | |-+  9 House polls by Ayres & McHenry (R) for American Action Forum (R)
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Author Topic: 9 House polls by Ayres & McHenry (R) for American Action Forum (R)  (Read 672 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 26, 2010, 01:11:12 pm »
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IA-3: “Despite challenger Brad Zaun having 71 percent name recognition compared to Representative Leonard Boswell’s 98 percent name recognition, Zaun leads by a 51 to 41 percent margin.”

MO-3: “Our polling, conducted for American Action Forum on August 16, 17, and 21, with 400 likely general election voters, shows Representative Russ Carnahan with a comfortable lead at the start of the Fall campaign. Carnahan’s 51 to 35 percent favorable-unfavorable rating (with 98 percent total name ID) exceeds challenger Ed Martin’s 16 to 9 percent rating (with 43 percent total name ID), and Carnahan leads by a 54 to 38 percent margin.”

MI-7: “Our polling, conducted for American Action Forum on August 16-18, with 400 likely general election voters, shows a competitive contest in the district. Challenger Tim Walberg has a 41 to 31 percent favorable rating compared to Representative Mark Schauer’s 40 to 36 percent rating, and leads by a 50 to 40 percent margin on the ballot test.”

OH-1: “Challenger Steve Chabot’s 53 to 31 percent favorable-unfavorable rating is better than Representative Steve Driehaus’s 43 to 39 percent rating, and Chabot leads by a slim 47 to 45 percent margin.”

OH-13: “Despite Representative Betty Sutton having an advantage in name recognition (87 percent, compared to 65 percent for challenger Tom Ganley) she leads by just a slim 43 to 41 percent margin.”

OH-15: “Challenger Steve Stivers has a 35 to 18 percent favorable rating with 80 percent name recognition compared to Representative Mary Jo Kilroy’s 43 to 47 percent rating with 99 percent name recognition. Stivers leads by a slim 49 to 44 percent margin on the ballot test.”

OH-16: “Despite challenger Jim Renacci having 66 percent name recognition compared to Representative John Boccieri’s 93 percent name recognition, Renacci leads by a 49 to 35 percent margin.”

WI-8: “Despite Representative Steve Kagen having 99 percent name ID (with a 43 to 48 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Reid Ribble’s 59 percent (21 to 11 percent favorable), Ribble leads on the ballot by a 49 to 39 percent margin.”

IN-2: Challenger Jackie Walorski has a 36 to 28 percent favorable rating with 78 percent name recognition compared to Representative Joe Donnelly’s 48 to 38 percent rating with 97 percent name recognition. Donnelly leads by a slim 46 to 44 percent margin on the ballot test.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/244811/great-big-midwestern-house-race-polling-roundup

http://americanactionforum.org/polling-data-house-districts
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2010, 04:01:41 pm »
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Internals, internals, internals across the board.

That said, seeing Kilroy down only 5 to Stivers in an internal like this is the best news I've heard about that race in months.
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2010, 04:05:08 pm »
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Internals, internals, internals across the board.

That said, seeing Kilroy down only 5 to Stivers in an internal like this is the best news I've heard about that race in months.

That, and Chabot only up by 2? Weird.
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2010, 04:10:59 pm »
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Internals, internals, internals across the board.

That said, seeing Kilroy down only 5 to Stivers in an internal like this is the best news I've heard about that race in months.

That, and Chabot only up by 2? Weird.

sh**te! I totally missed that too.

That's also the best news I've heard about that race since, well, 2008.
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2010, 04:20:08 pm »
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Assuming the usual partisan house-effect of an internal poll, these polls are actually pretty decent for Democrats.
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(Part of the 2012 Election Throwback Series)
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2010, 04:32:42 pm »
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Just a thought but wouldn't it be in the Republican's interest to show the races in OH-1 and OH-15 as closer than they really are so that donors don't write the seats off as done deals for Chabot and Stivers?
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2010, 04:47:53 pm »
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Just a thought but wouldn't it be in the Republican's interest to show the races in OH-1 and OH-15 as closer than they really are so that donors don't write the seats off as done deals for Chabot and Stivers?

Maybe, but then showing Boccieri down 14 points is counter-productive to that goal.
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2010, 06:14:24 pm »
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Just a thought but wouldn't it be in the Republican's interest to show the races in OH-1 and OH-15 as closer than they really are so that donors don't write the seats off as done deals for Chabot and Stivers?

Maybe, but then showing Boccieri down 14 points is counter-productive to that goal.
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E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2010, 06:35:19 pm »
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Assuming the usual partisan house-effect of an internal poll, these polls are actually pretty decent for Democrats.

That's why i'm not trusting the polls of individual races. Even with the usual bad quality of them, compared to how the Dems are doing on national generic ballot polling, the individual district polls aren't really that bad.
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2010, 08:31:12 pm »
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IN-2: Challenger Jackie Walorski has a 36 to 28 percent favorable rating with 78 percent name recognition compared to Representative Joe Donnelly’s 48 to 38 percent rating with 97 percent name recognition. Donnelly leads by a slim 46 to 44 percent margin on the ballot test.
Splendid. I'd love to see Walorski win, and I'm honestly starting to believe she will. Now if only they would poll IN-08...
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« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2010, 07:22:43 am »
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Apparently these polls don't start off with the head-to-head matchups, they start by questioning the respondent with right/wrong track, opinion of HCR, and favorables of Obama and Pelosi. So they're putting their thumb on the scale.
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« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2010, 07:34:07 am »
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Yeah, I guess, but those will be some issues when people enter the voting booth. Well, probably not Pelosi's favorables... I don't think some random voter in Iowa or Ohio really cares about that.
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