the black vote in 2030

[So the Heroes Fall]

I'm going to have to say option 3 due to the black community upward class mobility. But we'll make up for it.

[danwxman]

85% Democrat

[Sheliak5]

83% Dem
10% GOP
7% Some black special interest party that might develop in some places

[J. J.]

My guess is that the emerging Black middle class will trend GOP.  There is a growing cultural gap, and I get a large number of "You live where," comments from Black suburbanites.

"Urban" may mean, "relating to the city" in 25 years.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

75% Democrat
20% Republican
5% Other

100% me having no way of knowing this.

[True Federalist]

The Republicans can't do anything that would gain them the Black vote, but the Democrats could lose it.  The situation is analagous to the solid Democratic South of the first half of the 20th Century.

[dazzleman]

I think that eventually, the black vote will become more competitive as new generations come and upward mobility continues.

For older black voters who lived through the 1960s, their attachment to the Democratic Party is highly emotional, and not subject to change.  But succeeding generations will lose that connection, particularly those who are upwardly mobile economically.

I don't think that any demographic group can be considered assimilated and politically mature when they're voting monolithically for one party.  This type of voting is a sign of alienation from the mainstream.  Other demographic groups eventually outgrow this type of voting, and I hope that blacks will eventually also.

One major positive sign that I saw this year, which was largely unnoticed, was the poor showing Al Sharpton had among black voters.  In 1988, Jesse Jackson performed very well among black voters, and there was a danger (for the Democrats) that he would capture enough delegates to get the nomination (which would have led to a 50-state defeat for the Democrats).  That year, it seemed black voters voted for Jackson simply because he was black.  The fact that Sharpton didn't enjoy similar undeserved support is a positive sign of political maturation.

[DaleC76]

If Republicans can ever capture the Black religious vote, then the numbers may change.  There's really no way of knowing or predicting, but something tells me they won't vote as much as a block in the future.

[Vasall des Midas]

Well, as the current 9-1 split is hard to top, it's more likely than not that Republicans will slowly start getting a hadnful more Black votes...maybe move it back to 6-1 or 4-1...then again, it doesn't have to be. It's not unimaginable at all (though unlikely) that Reps would lose even those 10% of the Black vote they now have.

[Sulfur]

By 2030, I think the black vote will be pretty evenly divided.

[DanielX]

70/30 seems reasonable.

[Christopher]

It is difficult to say judging from what leadership and policy changes America will forsee in the next 25 years...however I would say that 70/30 for the Dems would be verly likely due to the religous (and culture as a whole) factors and the class factors as mentioned by some earlier

[© Tweed the Younger]

80/20.