Nate: Don't Pawn Your Lisa Murkowski Gear Just Yet

[Lunar]

I think so. Obviously Murkowski going third party will help.  As Joe Miller proved during the primary, it doesn't take a lot of money to compete in such a cheap media market.  Miller had a number of weird incidents during the primary and, while no Sharron Angle, could also be more gaffe-prone than Mike Lee over in Utah or whatevsky.

I think it's worth keeping on your watch list, just like I've maintained states like Indiana and Delaware should be kept on your watch list.

Before you comment, at least for the people who actually wish to seriously opine, I strongly suggest reading this and watching this.

[Meeker]

The city council candidate I worked with in 2009 had raised more money at this point in the cycle than McAdams has.

[Holmes]

Yeah, he can talk well. And he has a great opportunity. But he has no money. I think the DSCC would have to totally foot the bill.

[Lunar]

The city council candidate I worked with in 2009 had raised more money at this point in the cycle than McAdams has.

His fundraising abilities will play little part in being competitive here.  If Murkowski switches to a third party line, the money will come.  And it won't take much.

[Lunar]

Yeah, he can talk well. And he has a great opportunity. But he has no money. I think the DSCC would have to totally foot the bill.

It costs like $10 to run a radio ad in Alaska, seriously.  What do you think would have a higher expected outcome, $200,000 given to Blanche Lincoln or to Scott McAdams

[Vepres]

The city council candidate I worked with in 2009 had raised more money at this point in the cycle than McAdams has.

See, the dam libruls are the partay of reech folk!

[bgwah]

lol

I'm not going to get my hopes up.

[Lunar]

lol

I'm not going to get my hopes up.

Hey hey, I'm just saying to keep him on the same level as Indiana, Delaware, and maybe Louisiana, situations which could become competitive if the races develop in a certain way, not that he has any tangible chance as of now.

[DrScholl]

If it becomes a three person brawl, then yes, it should be on the watch list. In that situation, anything could happen.

[Reluctant Republican]

It's a possibility, and the race should certainly be watched until a three way poll comes out. I would still expect most Democrats to gravitate towards Murkowski if she runs in hopes of stopping Miller, but if Democrats can get enough funding and polls show a tight three way race, McAdams might have a shot, especially since Murkowski and Miller would likely go highly negative on each other and ignore McAdams as more of an afterthought. In that situation, he could portray himself as the "mature outsider" in the race.  Of course, if Murkowski does not run they should just forget it.

[Holmes]

Yeah, he can talk well. And he has a great opportunity. But he has no money. I think the DSCC would have to totally foot the bill.

It costs like $10 to run a radio ad in Alaska, seriously.  What do you think would have a higher expected outcome, $200,000 given to Blanche Lincoln or to Scott McAdams

I know it's cheap, and it's cheap for Murkowski and Miller too. Murkowski's already rich and Miller has the tea party's funds behind him, so McAdams is gonna need to spend a lot, even if it'll be cheap.

[Lunar]

Yeah, he can talk well. And he has a great opportunity. But he has no money. I think the DSCC would have to totally foot the bill.

It costs like $10 to run a radio ad in Alaska, seriously.  What do you think would have a higher expected outcome, $200,000 given to Blanche Lincoln or to Scott McAdams

I know it's cheap, and it's cheap for Murkowski and Miller too. Murkowski's already rich and Miller has the tea party's funds behind him, so McAdams is gonna need to spend a lot, even if it'll be cheap.

The idea isn't necessarily to spend enough to win, per se, but rather to spend enough to be known so that if the opportunity presents itself, you're there to seize it.  That'd only take spending maybe one third of what the other two clowns are spending...remember, it's a cheap media market.  Like, at a certain saturation point, spending more money won't get you very much farther into the electorate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think so. Obviously Murkowski going third party will help.

Is she?

[Lunar]

I think so. Obviously Murkowski going third party will help.

Is she?

She's said she's considering it, the Libertarians are the only ones who say they'll hear her pitch, but she seems sort of like the antithesis of the Libertarians outside of her moderate position on abortion

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

No, unless Lisa steals the Republican nomination, Joe Miller will be the next U.S. Senator from Alaska.

[Eraserhead]

No, unless Lisa steals the Republican nomination, Joe Miller will be the next U.S. Senator from Alaska.

If she does "steal it", it'll obviously be safer for it. Still, the degrees of safeness we're talking about here probably don't matter too much, especially in a year like this.

[Holmes]

... could Miller go on the Libertarian line if he loses?

[Lunar]

... could Miller go on the Libertarian line if he loses?

I believe so.  If they'd accept him.  But I'm fairly confident that Miller has won the GOP primary.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

No, unless Lisa steals the Republican nomination, Joe Miller will be the next U.S. Senator from Alaska.

If she does "steal it", it'll obviously be safer for it. Still, the degrees of safeness we're talking about here probably don't matter too much, especially in a year like this.

Not necessarily. There's no guarantee that the Miller-Palin-Tea Party faction would unite behind Murkowski if she managed to steal the nomination at the last second.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP is polling Alaska this weekend (yes, I know, Alaska polling sucks). They've tweeted about it:

"Dems should not be rooting for Murkowski third party run...Crist like effect pulling more from McAdams than Miller"

So no, he shouldn't be. He could very well end up with 10-15% of the vote in a three-way contest.

[Хahar 🤔]

PPP is polling Alaska this weekend (yes, I know, Alaska polling sucks). They've tweeted about it:

"Dems should not be rooting for Murkowski third party run...Crist like effect pulling more from McAdams than Miller"

So no, he shouldn't be. He could very well end up with 10-15% of the vote in a three-way contest.

I'm not sure why any Democrat would support Murkowski.

[Lunar]

PPP is polling Alaska this weekend (yes, I know, Alaska polling sucks). They've tweeted about it:

"Dems should not be rooting for Murkowski third party run...Crist like effect pulling more from McAdams than Miller"

So no, he shouldn't be. He could very well end up with 10-15% of the vote in a three-way contest.

Of course, a third party run is less predictable.  

I think Crist switching to Independent gave Meek more chances for victory, even if he may have squandered them or if said chances never realized themselves, things were not structurally looking very good for Meek in a 2 way battle.

a 3 way race could shake things up a bit, and I'm not sure if those dynamics are really 100% pollable, especially in Alaska, at this point

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I know you have fantasies, Lunar, but this is definitely not the right year for them.

[Torie]

I know you have fantasies, Lunar, but this is definitely not the right year for them.

Well I have high hopes that watching the Florida Senate race unfold will be the highlight of the season for me; that's my hope, and I hope it isn't a fantasy.

[Lunar]

I know you have fantasies, Lunar, but this is definitely not the right year for them.

Same fantasies I have for Indiana & Delaware...I'm not saying there's a serious chance, but rather that it's worth keeping an eye on.  Somewhere more competitive than North Dakota, that's all.