Magellan Strategies: Perlmutter and Frazier statistically tied at 39-40 (CO-07)
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  Magellan Strategies: Perlmutter and Frazier statistically tied at 39-40 (CO-07)
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Author Topic: Magellan Strategies: Perlmutter and Frazier statistically tied at 39-40 (CO-07)  (Read 1091 times)
Vepres
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« on: August 29, 2010, 10:56:25 PM »

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2010/08/colorado-7th-congressional-district-survey-82710/

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Another black Republican may be elected.
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Dgov
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2010, 12:54:01 AM »

Wow those Crosstabs are hard to read.

Summary:  18-34 yr-olds like Frazier the Most of any group, and 65+ yr-olds the least.  Racial numbers are too small to interpret well, but Perlmutter leads amoung non-whites by a 5:4 margin, roughly, with Frazier leading Whites by an equally small margin. (Blacks going to Perlmutter 4-3, as in 4 votes to 3).  This sort of margin is similar to a PPP poll of Colorado registered voters earlier this month, where Maes recieved almost 30% of the Black vote.  IDK if this is two flukes (both had very small sample sizes so that's perfectly reasonable) or if Colorado Blacks are way more Republican than the National average.

Also, Obama gets a 39-57 Approval rating from likely voters in this district.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2010, 01:58:30 AM »

I recognized the name vaguely as who I believed was a junk pollster. Upon looking at some results, they had Handel winning by 14 points in the Georgia GOP primary and Hoekestra ahead in Michigan. GOP-affiliated too.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2010, 06:19:11 AM »

Just the kind of leaked internal "result" to dismiss out of hand if you want to preserve your claim to sanity.

Unlike the Salazar one btw.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2010, 04:38:47 PM »

Just the kind of leaked internal "result" to dismiss out of hand if you want to preserve your claim to sanity.

Unlike the Salazar one btw.

This wasn't an internal AFAIK.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2010, 09:07:08 PM »

Just the kind of leaked internal "result" to dismiss out of hand if you want to preserve your claim to sanity.

Unlike the Salazar one btw.

This wasn't an internal AFAIK.

Magellan is an (R) firm, or at least they have been for every other poll taken this year.
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2010, 09:13:56 PM »

if you read the release, it is clearly trying to persuade you to the GOP side: http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Magellan-Colorado-7th-Congressional-District-Survey-Release-082710.pdf

Although that could be for commercial, rather than partisan reasons (an "incumbent is going down!" story is a lot sexier than an "incumbent could be starting to worry if his opponent can better define himself" story).
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2010, 09:18:40 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2010, 09:21:40 PM by Holmes »


A strong incumbent has a 60-20 approval? That's not strong, that's invincible. The whole thing reads like a 8th grader wrote it. Smiley

[fun fact: Perlmutter and I share the same birthday Smiley]
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2010, 09:24:04 PM »

Yeah, that highballing was a bit transparent there, as well as a weasel word or two around it, which compelled me to post the link
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2010, 12:09:24 PM »

39% Obama Approval Rating in a D+4 District?  Yeah sure...
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