I live in Virginia and he's already said he wouldn't run until his term was over, so that rules out a 2012 run, but still allows for '16/'20 speculation. Deeds was also a pretty god awful candidate.
But let's go with it.
Not much changes in your set up, other than some more Obama dissatisfaction. Nominating a conservative Virginian, and conservative South Carolinian is not the way to convert Pennsylvania, however dissatisfied it is. Your only hope really is a hit-or-miss liberal third party candidate, or democrats staying home in spite. Nevada's gonna stay Democrat, if Vegas has anything to say about it. Finally, Iowa was very pro-Obama IIRC in 08, and it's approval is still pretty high. Since the only thing keeping VA from going democratic in this setup is McDonnell, I'm gonna say that Iowa stays democratic, by a very slim margin.
Obama/Biden - 273
McDonnell/Haley - 265