2004 - The Election Decided - Moving On

[Niemeyerite]

Edwards/Richardson Vs. Bush/alexander??? I think Bush wins, because alexander is, by far, a better VP candidate than Cheney. But I really hope Edwards wins.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

With only a few weeks until the conventions, both campaigns begin the lay the ground which will hopefully push them over the line to victory.

Both campaigns are rattled by stories relating to their Vice Presidential picks. It’s believed President Bush offered the spot to John McCain who apparently turned it down on the spot, Lamar Alexander was believed to have been suggested by President Bush’s father.  John Edwards is believe to have originally intended to offer the VP slot to either of his primary rivals Wesley Clark or Howard Dean, but was pressured by campaign staff to select Richardson for his international credibility and the hoped ability to draw Latino votes away from President Bush, especially in the SW and Florida.

The polling suggests that they might not have been bad choices.

Edwards had been weak in the Western states, but the presence of Richardson seems to have helped. In recent polls Edwards now has a 6% lead in New Mexico, and leads within the margin of error in Colorado and Nevada. He is now trailing by less than 3% in Arizona, and less than 5% in Montana. He also has increased his lead in Oregon to 7%.

Bush, who was suffering across the upper South seems to have been boosted by the presence of the popular Tennessean. Bush’s lead in Tennessee has now increased to 6% and outside the margin of error, the same is true for West Virginia and Virginia saw 6% swing to President Bush in a period of 4 days, putting him ahead by 9%. The President now has a 3% lead in Arkansas, as well 2% in Missouri. Even Edwards’ home state of Tennessee, in which he had a small 2% lead has now retreated to a dead-heat.

Some other polling numbers of note:
Ohio:
Bush – 45
Edwards – 45

Pennsylvania:
Bush – 46
Edwards – 48

Michigan :
Bush – 46
Edwards – 49

Wisconsin:
Bush – 46
Edwards – 46

Florida:
Bush – 44
Edwards – 45

Iowa:
Bush – 46
Edwards - 45

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think Edwards is the right candidate for a State like Ohio (more than Florida for example). If he leads nationwide he probably also leads there.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

National Poll

Bush/Alexander - 46%
Edwards/Richardson - 46%

One week to the conventions...

Dark: 15%+ lead
Medium: 9-14% lead
Light: 4-8%
Grey: 0-3%

[Niemeyerite]

MOOOOOOOREEEEEEEE

[feeblepizza]

Bush/Alexander will win, as Lamar is a much better VP candidate than good ole Dick.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

MOOOOOOOREEEEEEEE

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Convention update coming soon

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

(yes... the convention dates are different)

The Democratic Convention, Boston - August 10-12

Night one
------------
*President Jimmy Carter
*Gov. Howard Dean
*Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton
*Tribute to John Kerry (Teresa Heinz - Kerry - Vanessa Kerry)
*Vice President Al Gore

Night two
-----------
*Senator Ted Kennedy
*President Bill Clinton
*State Senator Barack Obama
*Elizabeth Edwards
*Bill Richardson's acceptance

Night three
-----------
* Gen. Wesley Clark
* Secretary Madeline Albright
* Senator John Edwards acceptance

POST CONVENTION

Edwards/Richardson - 49%
Bush/Alexander - 46%

----------------------------------------------------------

The Republican Convention - New York City, August 17-19

Night one
------------
*First Lady Laura Bush
*Secretary Colin Powell
*Mayor Rudolph Giuliani
*Senator John McCain

Night two
-----------
*Tribute to Vice President Cheney
*President George H. W. Bush
*Secretary Tom Ridge
*Senator Lamar Alexander accepts VP nomination

Night three
-----------
*George P. Bush
*President George W Bush

POST CONVENTION

Bush/Alexander - 48%
Edwards/Richardson - 48%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

After the conventions it appears to remain a pretty level game.

The Edwards campaign is trotting out a new slogan in commercial "Strength, Purpose, Vision"

Bush attempts to portray Edwards as unsupportive of the troops by replaying his debate line, in which he said "I do regret that vote, this war was a mistake".

While Edwards focuses on healthcare and education, Bill Richardson is hitting the road attacking the Bush Doctrine as "reckless and dangerous, our troops deserve the strongest support possible, but I believe that the best way to protect them  is to manage their deployment in the smartest way possible... and this Iraq War has been badly handled, the Administration knows, this... but rather than admit to problems, they attack US"

The Debate Commission releases the dates and format of the debates.

Presidential Debates

Monday 27 September, University of Missouri - Columbia MO - Podium

Thursday 7 October, University of Nevada - Reno NV - Town Hall

Wednesday 20 October, University of Maine - Orono, ME - Sit down


Vice Presidential Debate

Thursday 14 October, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL - Podium

[Niemeyerite]

I like it. But, why tennessee only leans republican if alexander is on the ticket?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The lead has increased to 8% in TN - 51- 43%

[Niemeyerite]

The lead has increased to 8% in TN - 51- 43%

OK ^^

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Email leaked from the Edwards campaign:

Key points

• Elizabeth Edwards great asset, get her out there, but she has been markedly more tired of late. Schedule events for after 10am and before 9pm.

• The broad national strategy died with when Lamar Alexander came on board – TN, KY, WV, VA were gettable, but we should be working on NC, MO and AR  - get B. Clinton out in AR and MO.

• Richardson is working both in the SW and FL…

•   Internal polling
o   FL – Edwards up 1% (48-47%)
o   GA – Bush up 7% (50-43%)
o   NC – Edwards up 3% (50-47%)
o   PA – Edwards up 5% (49-44%)
o   TX – Bush up 11% (53-42%)
o   WI – Edwards up 2% (47-45%)
o   OH – Even (46%-46%)
o   IA – Bush up 1% (47-46%)
o   NM – Edwards up 8% (52-44%)
o   AZ – Bush up 3% (48-45%)
o   CO – Bush up 1% (47-46%)
o   NH – Edwards up 4% (49-45%)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Monday 27 September, University of Missouri

FIRST DEBATE

The President had spent the weekend at his home in Crawford, Texas to prepare. Senator Edwards spent the weekend in Colorado.

From the beginning, Bush looked uncomfortable.

He fidgeted, was visibly agitated, and slouched over his podium. The issue was foreign policy, and the War in Iraq dominated. Edwards explained that he felt, "now, in hindsight, that the War was based on exaggerated evidence. Hussein was a bad guy, no question, but connecting 9/11 and Osama Bin Laden to Iraq is dishonest and fundamentally wrong. But our brave men and women are in harm's way, we need to ensure their protection, and we need to determine an appropriate exit strategy in consultation with our military leadership"

... pundits generally considered Bush's performance as "embarrassing"  and Edwards looked "presidential and confident".

What's more, the next debate on domestic policy and in a town hall format is considered to be an even better fit for Edwards.

Immediate polling
WHO WON THE FIRST DEBATE

MSNBC: E - 57% B - 26% U - 17%
CNN: E - 47% B - 28% U - 25%
FOX: E - 51% B - 30% U - 19%

First national polling

Edwards/Richardson: 49%
Bush/Alexander: 48%

Bush Job Approval - 46%

Favourable/Unfavourable
Bush: 48/52
Edwards: 54/46
Alexander: 63/37
Richardson: 55/45

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Thursday 7 October, University of Nevada

SECOND DEBATE

Edwards gets off to a flying start attacking Bush in response to a question about prescriptions. Bush responds claiming that millions of seniors now have reasonable access to medications they never did under any plan in the past.

Edwards pushes urban decay, educational standards among minorities and poorer communities in the deep-South and the Appalachians, as well as healthcare in general.
Bush responds to Edwards with a question “don’t you think health insurance would be less expensive in this country, were it not for increased medical liability insurance premiums? You’ve certainly profited from significant payouts”

-   Consensus is Bush performed much better, but again Edwards was seen as more personable and comfortable with the crowd and subject matter.

WHO WON THE DEBATE?

MSNBC: E – 42% B- 33% U – 25%
CNN: E – 45% B- 35%  U – 20%
FOX: E – 43% B- 36% U – 21%

After the last debate Bush could not afford another disastrous performance, one pundit comments “Edwards was much stronger here than those numbers suggest… it just doesn’t look as impressive as last time because the President wasn’t so awful” 

The next morning, Edwards decides to get a haircut….

[Niemeyerite]

Yeees Bush will be defeated, he will be defeated!!!



It's a pitty this is a TL...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

John Edwards, who is due to fly to Iowa stops in at his Las Vegas hotel hair salon. The cut is charged back to his room account, at $290 not including a $50 tip, a $340 hair cut.

The Bush campaign and Fox News jump on this as a reflection that Edwards is a phony. Someone who cries for the betterment of the disadvantaged, then pays over $300 for a haircut. Ads by PACs on this front start airing the next day in OH, PA, NC, FL, MO, WI and MI.

Later that same day comes news that Bill Clinton has been rushed to hospital for an emergency triple by-pass. Clinton was due to stump with Edwards in OH, MO, AR and TN over the next few days.  Edwards sends his best wishes and carries on, but brings Wesley Clark and Jimmy Carter instead.

The day before the Vice Presidential debate, Elizabeth Edwards’ events are immediately postponed until further notice, the official story is that she has the flu, but rumblings suggest that Mrs Edwards has been seen in the oncology department of Johns Hopkins Medical Center, which combined with her limited schedule over the past month suggest that something is not right with her health.

The Edwards’ elder daughter Kate hits the trail in her mother’s stead.

Thursday 14 October, University of Central Florida

THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

This was considered one of the most dull and uninspired campaign events. Alexander and Richardson were both considered, reasonable and without much fire.

There were no attacks, and the ratings fell through the floor in the last 30 mins.

WHO WON THE DEBATE?
MSNBC: R – 31% A – 27% U – 42%
CNN: R – 34% A – 30% U – 36%
FOX: A – 35% R – 30% U – 35%

On Monday 18 October, Lamar Alexander was formally confirmed as Vice President by the Senate, by a vote of 92-4 (Edwards voted in favour of confirmation).

National Poll - October 19

Edwards/Richardson - 50%
Bush/Alexander - 47%

--- In reality, the greater national vote, with a drop in the number of electoral votes suggests that support has intensified for Edwards, with leads of 19% in NY and 16% in IL, but that is not translating into the swing states, where his support has dropped overall.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wednesday 20 October, University of Maine
THE FINAL DEBATE

The two opponents who were noted for their relaxed attitudes toward each other at the start of the first two debates seem to have been hardened.

They’re friendly, but there’s a tension there too. Perhaps the increased personal campaigning each other is using is starting to have an effect?


Topics covered

Gay marriage:

Edwards says that DOMA should be repealed as he doesn’t believe that in order to value something, we need to devalue it for someone else. Supports civil unions, but considers marriage something between a man and woman.

Edwards notes that President Bush opposed the decriminalisation of homosexuality while Governor of Texas.

Bush says that he respect that the “institution of marriage and the family is central to America, and I believe that marriage is between a man and a woman. But having said that, the states do have the ability to direct policy and then have that policy judged”

When each is asked what their view is on the Federal Marriage Amendment, Bush says “It should be considered” Edwards says “Absolutely not, it’s an abuse of both the constitution and an attack on law-abiding American citizens, who want to live their lives as anyone does”

The deficit:

Bush says the spending engaged in by his administration has been necessary to defend the country and freedom around the world, and to stimulate the economy after the mild recession of 2000/1.

Edwards says the Bush tax cuts are reckless, and “if you knew someone who was in serious debt but still continued to generate debt while their expenditure vastly outweighs their income… you’d direct them to a financial planner. We are spending too much, we need to reduce the debt burden now or there will serious consequences”

Education:

Edwards “my life has been based upon securing the best education possible. This was instilled in me, by my parents. We have so many talented young people for whom the idea of college is unfathomable. Of course, college isn’t the only option. But learning a skill, a trade, earning a degree these are the tickets to financial independence and security”

Bush “one of the proudest moments of my term as president so far, was signing the no child left behind act. This provides funding directly to struggling schools helping lift those who might never have had a chance”

The general view is the Bush is getting more confident as these debates continue. Edwards, again, strong, confident, knowledgeable and comfortable. Neither made any errors not knock-out blows.

WHO WON THE DEBATE
MSNBC: E – 43% B – 36% U-21%
CNN: E – 46% B- 31% U – 23%
FOX: E – 44% B- 37% U – 19%

Edwards/Richardson - 49%
Bush/Alexander - 48%


--- next, the final dash... and election night

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The last three days of the 2004 Presidential Campaign are here.

Recent polls show a neck-and-neck race, with Edwards perhaps with a 1-2% edge, however, in those all important swing states, the polls should give neither Edwards nor Bush any comfort, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri and Edward’s home state, North Carolina are either line ball or within the margin of error.

Both candidates and their running-mates commence exhausting multi-states slogs all the way to elections day.

Bush
-   Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Texas, DC

Edwards
-   Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arkansas, North Carolina, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio… home to NC

Alexander
-   West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, DC

Richardson
-   Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina.

ELECTION DAY

2:00PM – Exit polls suggest strong early turnout in African-American districts, and generally higher turnout across the South and the West.

-   WELCOME TO PNN’s COVERAGE OF THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – LOOKING TO BE AS CLOSE, IF NOT CLOSER THAN THE CONTROVERSIAL ELECTION OF FOUR YEARS AGO

Indiana and Kentucky's polls have closed...



INDIANA has gone to President George W Bush

KENTUCKY we cannot make a call on this state at present


7:00pm Eastern and several states have closed and we are able to make some projections

The state of VERMONT and its 3 electoral votes remain solidly in the Democratic column. Some were expecting this to be a closer result however we can also called the state of NEW HAMPSHIRE for Senator Edwards, this was a state won by George W. Bush by a very narrow margin four years ago.

We are waiting on more data to be able to make a call on GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, and VIRGINIA


7:30PM EST

3 states have just closed but we are unable to make a projection about any of these states
OHIO
WEST VIRGINIA
and Senator Edwards' home state of NORTH CAROLINA

8:00PM EST

This is a big hour, a lot of states, a lot of electoral votes up for grabs. We can indeed make some projections.

President Bush has won the states of ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA, and we can call the following states for Senator Edwards
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
ILLINOIS
MAINE
MARYLAND
MASSACHUSETTS
NEW JERSEY

However, we cannot make projections for the following states
FLORIDA
KANSAS
MICHIGAN
MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI
PENNSYLVANIA
TENNESSEE

BUSH: 20 Electoral Votes
EDWARDS: 82 Electoral Votes
UNABLE TO MAKE PROJECTION: 158

The panel stress that this really doesn't mean anything, after the debacle four years ago, very few want to make calls before they can be confident. What it does show is that Edwards has very strong support in traditional Democratic states.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

8:20PM - We can now make some projections.

We project that President Bush will win the states of

GEORGIA
SOUTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
KANSAS

8:30PM EST

The polls have closed in the state of ARKANSAS but we cannot make a projection at this point.

BUSH: 62
EDWARDS: 82
UNABLE TO MAKE A PROJECTION: 121

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It is now 9pm EST another big batch of states to come... we can make the following projections.

George W. Bush will win the states of

WYOMING
NEBRASKA
and his home state of TEXAS

We can also project that Senator Edwards has won the states of

NEW MEXICO
NEW YORK
RHODE ISLAND

We cannot project at present who has won the states of

MINNESOTA
ARIZONA
COLORADO
LOUISIANA
WISCONSIN
or SOUTH DAKOTA

9:10PM - We can project that George W. Bush will win the state of WEST VIRGINIA

9:38PM - We project that George W Bush will win the states of MISSISSIPPI and SOUTH DAKOTA - and we can also now project Senator John Edwards will carry the state of MINNESOTA.


9:51PM - We can now make an important projection, PNN projects that John Edwards will win the state of PENNSYLVANIA.

BUSH: 120 EV
EDWARDS: 153 EV
UNABLE TO DETERMINE: 153 EV

[Antonio the Sixth]

MI still too close to call ? Uh, bad news...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

10PM EST: We have some polls closing and we can make some projections

We can project than George W. Bush win UTAH and NORTH DAKOTA

We can't make a projection as yet for
IOWA
NEVADA
MONTANA


10:14PM: We can project that George W Bush will win TENNESSEE, we are also calling LOUISIANA for the President.

10:39PM: We can now project that George W Bush will win the states of KENTUCKY and ARIZONA

BUSH - 171 EV
EDWARDS - 153 EV
YET TO BE DETERMINED - 134 EV

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

11pm on the East Coast and we can make some projections.

We can project that George W Bush will win the state of IDAHO

We can also project that Senator John Edwards will win the states of
CALIFORNIA
OREGON
WASHINGTON
HAWAII

11:35PM: We can project that George W Bush will win the state of ARKANSAS

11:46PM: We can project that Senator John Edwards will win MICHIGAN


MIDNIGHT EST

We can project that George W Bush will win ALASKA

Iowa election officials suggest that due to the current margin 49.46 for Bush and 49.43 for Edwards, the likelihood of any result tonight will be low.

12:14AM: We can project that Senator John Edwards will win COLORADO

12:34AM: We can project that George W Bush will win MONTANA

12:57AM: We are now in a position to project that Senator John Edwards will win WISCONSIN

1:45AM: George W Bush will win FLORIDA

Edwards - 266 EV
Bush - 214 EV
Too Close to Call - 58 EV