INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
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Author Topic: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)  (Read 174028 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 31, 2010, 11:55:09 PM »
« edited: September 04, 2010, 10:22:57 PM by The Only Halfway-Sane Moderator Left »

40% - Alan Grayson (D-Inc.)
27% - Daniel Webster (R)
23% - Others
11% - Undecided

The sole questions in the poll were the “horse race” question, party registration, age, gender and ethnicity. Public Policy Polling, of Raleigh, NC, conducted the poll. It was an automated telephone survey of 1589 registered voters in FL-8. The margin of error is 2.4%.

http://salsa.mydccc.org/o/30019/t/270/p/salsa/web/common/public/content?content_item_KEY=235

...

Maybe the Tea Party candidate is hurting Webster there, but 23% looks odd ...
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Dgov
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2010, 02:54:50 AM »

LOL.  The man is proudly demonstrating on his website the fact that a high-profile incumbent like himself is winning only 40% of the voters in the district.  I'm willing to bet 80-90% of those "Others" and "Undecideds" lean Republican (given that close to 45% of Self-identified Republicans apparently aren't yet backing Webster) and will come home for Webster in November.  No way Grayson, of all Democrats, is going to win 4-1 among independent voters.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2010, 07:04:28 AM »
« Edited: September 04, 2010, 10:20:36 PM by The Only Halfway-Sane Moderator Left »

Okay, I'm tired of opening a new thread for every internal poll, so I'm just going to start posting them all in one place. Starting with this one:

Heath Shuler/NC-11:

Heath Shuler (D) - 51
Jeff Miller (R) - 34

Feel free to do the same.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2010, 07:09:48 AM »

Another fraudulent poll that identifies a no-chance-in-hell independent as a "Tea Party" candidate, huh?
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2010, 10:14:07 AM »

Okay, I'm tired of opening a new thread for every internal poll, so I'm just going to start posting them all in one place. Starting with this one:

Heath Shuler/NC-11:

Heath Shuler (D) - 51
Jeff Miller (R) - 34

Feel free to do the same.

if this poll is an internal, the race is closer than I expected =/
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2010, 11:24:15 AM »

I don't trust this poll at all. 23% other in a race where you would think conservatives and right leaning independents would be jumping at the chance to say they support Grayson's opponent is crazy. Sad to see PPP allowing themselves to be used as an obviously sh**tty internal poll.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2010, 11:47:20 AM »

This is a great idea, but I fear that it's slightly redundant -- the only real House polls we're likely to see are going to be internals.
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2010, 12:09:40 PM »

This is a great idea, but I fear that it's slightly redundant -- the only real House polls we're likely to see are going to be internals.

But said internals should not distract us from the ones that actually matter, the non-internals.

Support this idea.
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DS0816
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2010, 02:17:04 PM »

If Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Florida #08) wins re-election, in a Republian Wave election year, it will be another example of Washington, D.C. Democrats having made a fatal mistake of acting like The New Republicans. Most of the losses, in the House, will come from the Blue Dogs. The … "centrists."
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2010, 05:51:42 PM »

FL-25/Joe Garcia:

Joe Garcia (D) - 40
David Rivera (R) - 36

There's also one for CT-04/Dan Debicella that's being bounced around, with no actual source:

Jim Himes (D) - 42
Dan Debicella (R) - 38
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2010, 06:38:32 PM »

I guess that FL-25 poll is right. garcia can win this election. the year is bad for democrats, I know. but garcia can appeal to the Republican cuban-americans.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2010, 06:45:09 PM »

If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??
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Verily
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« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2010, 06:50:42 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2010, 06:52:14 PM by Verily »

If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

It's no shock that voters like pugnacious politicians, something some Republicans, but very few Democrats save Grayson, seem to have learned as a campaign tactic. Further bad news for governance, though, even if one agrees with Grayson.

I've always had a hunch that Grayson would be reelected fairly solidly, although this poll does not appear to prove anything.
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Dgov
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« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2010, 08:16:09 PM »

If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

See my post above.  The Fact that he's actually under-polling by so so much in this district (40% is one of the lowest I've seen for an incumbent Democrat this cycle) suggest that his "lead" comes far more from a fractured opposition than from his own likability or support.  Let me make a bet that the 23% in this poll that supports an "Other" candidate aren't referring to the Green party ticket line.

I'll bet he loses, at best (for him) 45-55 in November.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2010, 07:35:48 AM »

If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

See my post above.  The Fact that he's actually under-polling by so so much in this district (40% is one of the lowest I've seen for an incumbent Democrat this cycle) suggest that his "lead" comes far more from a fractured opposition than from his own likability or support.  Let me make a bet that the 23% in this poll that supports an "Other" candidate aren't referring to the Green party ticket line.

I'll bet he loses, at best (for him) 45-55 in November.

I think grayson will be reelected. he has the money, and the charisma. and his district is not that conservative.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2010, 07:53:59 AM »

I think grayson will be reelected. he has the money, and the charisma. and his district is not that conservative.

This guy has all the charm of Bob Dornan.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2010, 09:38:47 AM »


Cool.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2010, 12:17:52 PM »

Is David Rivera the crazy one who's been on the blogs/news so much lately? If so, than that numbers not totally surprising.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2010, 01:22:06 PM »

Grayson seems kind of slimy on a personal level. I'm pulling for him just because him winning would annoy right-wingers.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2010, 01:52:25 PM »

Is David Rivera the crazy one who's been on the blogs/news so much lately? If so, than that numbers not totally surprising.

The one that beat up his girlfriend and then drove his car into a truck transporting his opponent's mailers attacking him for beating up his girlfriend, yes.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2010, 03:58:47 PM »

I want to see some polling of NY-20 and NY-19, preferably non-internal polling, but I'll take what I can get.
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Rowan
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« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2010, 04:19:00 PM »


The poll has 5% going for a random "tea party" candidate. Not gonna happen.
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Dgov
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« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2010, 07:21:14 PM »


Don't be so sure.  This is the only Democratic strategy this cycle that might actually work for them.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2010, 07:28:33 PM »


Don't be so sure.  This is the only Democratic strategy this cycle that might actually work for them.

     When the only strategy that might work for you is affixing the "tea party" label to random dead-in-the-water independents who won't have any such label on the November ballot so as to deflate the numbers of your opponents in internal polls, you know you're in trouble.
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nhmagic
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2010, 10:05:21 PM »

I think Grayson's funny - his views are atrocious, but he says some of that stuff that you guys will one day wish he had not.  I would almost say re-elect him, but we need every person to pitch in to repeal Obamacare.
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