INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another one for Marianette Miller-Meeks in IA-02:

Dave Loebsack (D) - 41
MMM (R) - 40
Gary Sicard (L) - 6

Same link has one for Frank Kratovil in MD-01:

Frank Kratovil (D) - 45
Andy Harris (R) - 39

[Torie]

Who on the IA-2 number, just wow.

[Beet]

Kratovil is ahead of Harris? Wasn't that supposed to be like the most vulnerable seat in the nation?

[Torie]

Kratovil is ahead of Harris? Wasn't that supposed to be like the most vulnerable seat in the nation?

It was in the top 30. When we see anomalies like this, one needs to check if something odd and micro is going on in the district, or whether it might be just a bad poll, or whether something more systemic is going on, either in the state or regionally or nationally. I start off myself with the micro of course, after checking out whether the poll makes much sense.

[Rowan]

The simple answer that you are avoiding is that it's a Democratic internal.

[minionofmidas]

The simple answer that you are avoiding is that it's a Democratic internal.

Well yeah, but it's better than we'd been expecting even for internals.

The answer is that Harris is borderline unelectable, but not flat out so. He'll need a genuine massive wave for his persona to not matter. (In which case he'd win this district by a healthy margin.)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think the climate is such that a potted plant could win MD-01 as a Republican. Speaking of which, I wonder why E. J. Pipkin didn't run again.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Kratovil is ahead of Harris? Wasn't that supposed to be like the most vulnerable seat in the nation?

It was in the top 30. When we see anomalies like this, one needs to check if something odd and micro is going on in the district, or whether it might be just a bad poll, or whether something more systemic is going on, either in the state or regionally or nationally. I start off myself with the micro of course, after checking out whether the poll makes much sense.

You say this right after saying "wow" on the Meeks internal.

[Tender Branson]

NC-07 (POS for the Republican guy):

Public Opinion Strategies conducted the live interview poll on August 31 and September 2, with 400 interviews and a margin of error of 4.9 percent. In summary, Public Opinion Strategies stated, “A combination of a worsening political environment for Democrats and Mike McIntyre’s bad voting record has transformed this usually safe re-election coronation into the fight of McIntyre’s political life.”

Among “most likely voters,” challenger Ilario Pantano holds a 7 point advantage of 48 percent to 41 percent and among “very likely voters,” Congressman McIntyre is clinging to a single digit lead of 45 percent to 39 percent on the ballot test.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100914006774/en

[Brittain33]

WTF with the massive swing between "most" and "very"?!

[minionofmidas]

Something's wrong there. Probably misleadingly worded on purpose. Perhaps they mean those who say they'll "most likely" (ie probably) vote - as opposed to either the actual likely voters? I dunno.

[Torie]

Something's wrong there. Probably misleadingly worded on purpose. Perhaps they mean those who say they'll "most likely" (ie probably) vote - as opposed to either the actual likely voters? I dunno.

Maybe the pollster is struggling with how high the black turnout will be.

[Tender Branson]

Earl Pomeroy internal:

Pomeroy’s campaign has released results of their third round of private polling this campaign cycle – indicating Pomeroy leads Berg, 46 percent to 44 percent, with 10 percent of voters undecided.

The Washington, D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group surveyed 501 likely North Dakota voters Sept. 10-12. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Similar polls conducted in May and July by the research group also tilted in favor of Pomeroy by two or three percentage points, according to the campaign news release.

http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/291827/group/News/

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So the ND race is more or less where it was during the Summer. Good to know, given Rasmussen stopped with the regular updates of it.

[Rowan]

DCCC doing another internal poll dump:

FL-25

Garcia(D): 40%
Rivera(R): 33%

AR-01

Causey(D): 46%
Crawford(R): 44%

GA-08

Marshall(D): 48%
Scott(R): 36%

DE-AL

Carney(D): 50%
Urquhart(R): 32%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Makes you wonder what races the DCCC is polling but not releasing the results for.

[Mr.Phips]

Makes you wonder what races the DCCC is polling but not releasing the results for.

SC-05, PA-03, PA-07, PA-10, PA-11, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, MI-07, VA-02.

[Tender Branson]

Heck, he`s gaining !

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http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_27/atr/50053-1.html

...

So, the 9-point SUSA lead isn´t so far off and they also have it getting closer.

[Dgov]

Heck, he`s gaining !

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http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_27/atr/50053-1.html

...

So, the 9-point SUSA lead isn´t so far off and they also have it getting closer.

It's an internal, and one showing the payer losing.  In other words, about a 10-point edge for Herrera is likely

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ben Chandler/KY-06:

Ben Chandler (D) - 53
Andy Barr (R) - 33

[Meeker]

Heck, he`s gaining !

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http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_27/atr/50053-1.html

...

So, the 9-point SUSA lead isn´t so far off and they also have it getting closer.

Interesting that the only thing really changing in the two SurveyUSA polls and this one is Herrera's topline - it fluctuates from 54 to 47 whereas Heck's has only fluctuated from 41 to 44.

[Tender Branson]

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[Tender Branson]

A new one for AZ-05:

There's new evidence to support Democrats' claims that Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) is running a strong reelection campaign.

A new poll shows the two-term incumbent leading former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R) — albeit by a single point.

Mitchell had 45 percent support to 44 percent for Schweikert, with 6 percent for Libertarian Nick Coons and 5 percent undecided, in an internal poll obtained by the Ballot Box.

Harstad Strategic Research, a Colorado-based firm, conducted the survey of 509 likely voters Sept. 13-16. The firm's polling memo does not state the poll's margin of error.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/119961-poll-arizona-grudge-match-tied-

And 2 older ones for TN-04:

DesJarlais released an internal campaign poll conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies on Aug. 10 and 12 that showed him trailing the Congressman 45 percent to 41 percent. That survey of 300 likely voters with a 5.7-point margin of error was dismissed by Davis’ camp.

The Congressman [Lincoln Davis (D)] released his own survey of 400 likely voters conducted Aug. 24-26, which showed him ahead 51 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 points.

[Meeker]

Good to know TN-04 is still in our column.

[Dgov]

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Cao is down 10 in a Dem internal in the district?  This one might be salvageable after all.