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Author Topic: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)  (Read 41457 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #150 on: September 26, 2010, 11:59:54 pm »
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MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.
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Dgov
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« Reply #151 on: September 27, 2010, 12:13:37 am »
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MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.

It's not entirely unlikely if you just assume all the undecideds break for Thompson.  The district is probably the most raciall polarized in teh country, with the Republican getting more than 80% of the White vote and the Democrat getting more than 90% of the Black vote.  The problem is that the district itself is actually 63.5% Black, which kind of destroys the Republican's chances.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #152 on: September 27, 2010, 04:59:58 am »
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MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.

It's not entirely unlikely if you just assume all the undecideds break for Thompson.  The district is probably the most raciall polarized in teh country, with the Republican getting more than 80% of the White vote and the Democrat getting more than 90% of the Black vote.  The problem is that the district itself is actually 63.5% Black, which kind of destroys the Republican's chances.

Every undecided breaking for an incumbent? Yeah, that happens. Tongue
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Dgov
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« Reply #153 on: September 27, 2010, 05:33:36 am »
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MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.

It's not entirely unlikely if you just assume all the undecideds break for Thompson.  The district is probably the most raciall polarized in teh country, with the Republican getting more than 80% of the White vote and the Democrat getting more than 90% of the Black vote.  The problem is that the district itself is actually 63.5% Black, which kind of destroys the Republican's chances.

Every undecided breaking for an incumbent? Yeah, that happens. Tongue

It's a common strategy for internal polling to try to get your opponent's supporters as "Undecideds".  It helps to completely "Honestly" boos your own relative numbers.  34% sounds about right for a Republican in this district
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #154 on: September 27, 2010, 04:17:15 pm »
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Internal poll for SHS:

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 51
Kristi Noem (R): 38
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.9%)

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/herseth-sandlin-leads-noem-in.html
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Lief
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« Reply #155 on: September 27, 2010, 04:47:05 pm »
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huh, surprisingly large lead, even for an internal.
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Torie
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« Reply #156 on: September 27, 2010, 05:26:33 pm »
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huh, surprisingly large lead, even for an internal.

It's the driving record thing.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #157 on: September 27, 2010, 05:57:24 pm »
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Suzanne Kosmas/FL-24:

Suzanne Kosmas (D) - 45
Sandy Adams (R) - 43

Yep, she's done.

Steven Palazzo/MS-04 (buried in the article):

Gene Taylor (D) - 45
Steven Palazzo (R) - 41

Chris Carney/PA-10:

Chris Carney (D) - 46
Tom Marino (R) - 38
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #158 on: September 27, 2010, 06:14:57 pm »
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MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.


Crappy partisan polling often plays around heavily with that order of questions that prime for certain answers, because people are more likely to give answers that are superficially "consistent" with their previous answer so as not to appear inconsistent, even if they wouldn't make the same choice if the question came on its own. If we assume that the questions were asked in the same wording and order as on the link*, then they first asked whether respondents were pro-life or pro-choice, then asked whether they were satisfied with "their current congressman" without naming him, and then asked about Thompson vs. Marcy without including the words "Democrat" or "Republican". All of these would prime an exaggeratedly Republican response in a district like this.

*Of course, this assumption is just a guess, but not an unreasonable one given the result and source.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #159 on: September 27, 2010, 08:07:02 pm »
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Suzanne Kosmas/FL-24:

Suzanne Kosmas (D) - 45
Sandy Adams (R) - 43

Yep, she's done.

Steven Palazzo/MS-04 (buried in the article):

Gene Taylor (D) - 45
Steven Palazzo (R) - 41

Chris Carney/PA-10:

Chris Carney (D) - 46
Tom Marino (R) - 38



Good news for Taylor, but I don't think anyone suspected he was endangered this year.  Carney might be able to survive.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #160 on: September 27, 2010, 09:21:39 pm »
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I don't know about the professional prognosticators, but I've had Taylor on my watch list for a long time. This is the first time in God knows how long that he's had an opponent who has more distinguishing features than just a pulse.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #161 on: September 27, 2010, 09:26:04 pm »
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I don't know about the professional prognosticators, but I've had Taylor on my watch list for a long time. This is the first time in God knows how long that he's had an opponent who has more distinguishing features than just a pulse.

Taylor actually had a self-funder in 1996 and another state legislator who was Trent Lott's nephew in 2004. 
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Meeker
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« Reply #162 on: September 28, 2010, 08:19:12 am »
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The numbers for Kosmas are actually any improvement since the last time she released an internal poll fwiw.
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Rowan
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« Reply #163 on: September 28, 2010, 04:33:31 pm »
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NRCC internal poll dump:

FL-24

Adams(R): 49%
Kosmas(D): 39%

MD-01

Harris(R): 43%
Kratovil(D): 39%

VA-02

Rigell(R): 45%
Nye(D): 40%

CO-03

Salazar(D): 45%
Tipton(R): 45%

AZ-05

Schweikert(R): 45%
Mitchell(D): 44%

OR-05

Bruun(R): 45%
Schrader(D): 44%

AZ-01

Gosar(R): 45%
Kirkpatrick(D): 42%

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html?wprss=thefix

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/nrcc-polling-gives-republicans.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=eye-on-2010
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #164 on: September 28, 2010, 05:12:49 pm »
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NRCC internal poll dump:

FL-24

Adams(R): 49%
Kosmas(D): 39%

MD-01

Harris(R): 43%
Kratovil(D): 39%

VA-02

Rigell(R): 45%
Nye(D): 40%

CO-03

Salazar(D): 45%
Tipton(R): 45%

AZ-05

Schweikert(R): 45%
Mitchell(D): 44%

OR-05

Bruun(R): 45%
Schrader(D): 44%

AZ-01

Gosar(R): 45%
Kirkpatrick(D): 42%

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html?wprss=thefix

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/nrcc-polling-gives-republicans.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=eye-on-2010

So Schrader is in deep trouble, while MD-01, VA-02, CO-03, and AZ-05 are polling as pure tossups?  That's remarkable on all counts (that Schrader is losing and that Kratovil is down only 4 in a GOP internal).
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« Reply #165 on: September 28, 2010, 05:22:40 pm »
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Do you mean Kosmas instead of Schrader?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #166 on: September 28, 2010, 05:25:43 pm »
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Do you mean Kosmas instead of Schrader?

Schrader in OR wasn't thought to be at risk until very recently, right?

Also, I thought for sure that Kratovil in MD-01 would be languishing in Perriello (VA-05) territory by now.  His district is even more GOP friendly than VA-05, and he voted for the stimulus and for cap and trade.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #167 on: September 28, 2010, 05:41:53 pm »
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Being down by 1 in your opponent's internal isn't that bad.
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Lief
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« Reply #168 on: September 28, 2010, 05:53:18 pm »
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Those internals are less scary than I thought they would be.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #169 on: September 28, 2010, 06:06:42 pm »
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DCCC/WV-03:

Nick Rahall (D) - 55
Spike Maynard (R) - 37

Julie Lassa/WI-07:

Sean Duffy (R) - 42
Julie Lassa (D) - 41
Gary Kauther (I) - 7
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #170 on: September 28, 2010, 06:33:46 pm »
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I wonder if the GOP can take the House without taking down at least 3 of Kratovil, Nye, Salazar, and Mitchell?  I'd guess no.  Wouldn't it be ironic if we ended up with a GOP senate and a Dem house?
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Rowan
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« Reply #171 on: September 29, 2010, 07:17:00 am »
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NRCC releases some more internals:

WI-08

Ribble(R): 57%
Kagen(D): 39%

IL-17

Schilling(R): 44%
Hare(D): 43%

WI-07

Duffy(R): 52%
Lassa(D): 38%

MI-01

Benishek(R): 40%
McDowell(D): 24%

IN-08

Buschon(R): 41%
Van Haaften(D): 20%

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/starting_lineup_23.php
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #172 on: September 29, 2010, 07:29:00 am »
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SEIU/VoteVets for PA-08:

Patrick Murphy (D) - 49
Michael Fitzpatrick (R) - 46
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« Reply #173 on: September 29, 2010, 07:32:51 am »
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SEIU/VoteVets for PA-08:

Patrick Murphy (D) - 49
Michael Fitzpatrick (R) - 46

D internal, I presume?
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« Reply #174 on: September 29, 2010, 07:33:57 am »
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41%-20% in late September? Really?

VoteVets/SEIU are Dem-supporting groups, yes, so this should be equivalent to an internal.
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