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Author Topic: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)  (Read 174034 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #200 on: October 01, 2010, 01:09:30 PM »


Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.
It has the potential to be a Fool's Gold type of district... if Republicans hadn't been too intelligent to target it at all before.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #201 on: October 01, 2010, 01:35:52 PM »

LOL Brittain, about what I'd expect! Cheesy
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #202 on: October 01, 2010, 01:37:14 PM »


Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.
Not really. The lowest Grijalva has ever gotten is 59% in 2002 when the district was created. Since then he's gotten 62%, 60.6% and 63.3%. While I'm definitely expecting some strong backlash against Democrats in Arizona due to SB1070, Grijalva outperformed Obama by 6 percentage points in 08(effect of McCain being the nominee maybe?), but this is still a very Democratic district. 50.6% of the district is latino and another 5% are native american. So based on demographics, along with Grijalva's popularity in this district and the fact that it voted for Gore, Kerry and Obama I don't think this internal poll is accurate.

     Latinos tend to have poor turnout, though. The district is D+6, so it could in theory be competitive, though that would require a much weaker Democrat than Grijalva.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #203 on: October 01, 2010, 01:41:17 PM »

You need to add Tucson Liberals.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #204 on: October 02, 2010, 04:10:47 PM »

Nick Rahall/WV-03:

Nick Rahall (D) - 59
Spike Maynard (R) - 34
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #205 on: October 03, 2010, 12:16:34 PM »

Indeterminate Republican poll of DE-AL:

John Carney (D) - 45
Glen Urquhart (R) - 42
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ajc0918
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« Reply #206 on: October 03, 2010, 06:48:46 PM »


This is surprising if true.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #207 on: October 03, 2010, 08:24:53 PM »


     It's a Republican internal. The true numbers would be something in the area of 48-40, which is pretty close to what previous independent polling has shown.
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Torie
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« Reply #208 on: October 03, 2010, 09:02:51 PM »

Is Urquhart an O'Donnell clone (sans of course that which by definition makes O'Donnell unique, like her unusual interest in masturbation and witchcraft)?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #209 on: October 03, 2010, 09:20:33 PM »

Is Urquhart an O'Donnell clone (sans of course that which by definition makes O'Donnell unique, like her unusual interest in masturbation and witchcraft)?

Pretty much.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #210 on: October 03, 2010, 10:17:21 PM »

Missed this earlier in the week:

In Chris Shays's old district (CT-04):

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Debicella internal,  of course.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #211 on: October 04, 2010, 05:35:27 PM »

Couple DCCC polls:

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #212 on: October 04, 2010, 06:12:12 PM »

Chip Cravaaaaaaaack/MN-08:

Jim Oberstar (D) - 45
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack (R) - 42
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Torie
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« Reply #213 on: October 04, 2010, 07:04:42 PM »


See BRTD, I told you. Jimbo better make sure the folks working the iron range show up to vote, because the tea partiers in the southern part of the CD certainly will be, phalanx after phalanx of them, almost as one body.
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Torie
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« Reply #214 on: October 04, 2010, 07:05:19 PM »

Couple DCCC polls:

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Scott must be a very talented politician. Is he?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #215 on: October 04, 2010, 08:56:06 PM »

Couple DCCC polls:

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Bad news for Bright?  He was cruising during the summer.  This probably does translate to a slight lead in unbiased polling, but only by 3 or 4 points.
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cinyc
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« Reply #216 on: October 05, 2010, 09:16:03 PM »

Couple DCCC polls:

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Countering that, the Gibson campaign leaked a POS NY-20 poll showing:

Scott Murphy (D) - 42%
Chris Gibson (R) -  38%

Among those most interested in the election, POS claims it's Gibson 41%, Murphy 40%.
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Vepres
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« Reply #217 on: October 06, 2010, 12:50:03 PM »

Couple DCCC polls:

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Scott must be a very talented politician. Is he?

He's good at building a moderate image, like Altmire.
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cinyc
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« Reply #218 on: October 06, 2010, 04:57:02 PM »

Republican internals via National Review's Campaign Spot:

IL-14
Hultgren (R) - 44%
Foster (D)(i) - 38%

Tarrance; October 3-4; 400 LV; MoE +/-4.9%

NY-01
Altschuler (R) - 40.10%
Bishop (D)(i)  - 40.35%
Undecided     - 19.55%

NY-19
Hayworth (R) - 38.36%
Hall (D)(i)       - 37.77%
Undecided     - 23.86%

NY-24
Hanna (R)      - 38.46%
Arcuri (D)(i)    - 35.61%
Undecided     - 25.93%

All NY polls are from ccAdvertising; composition unknown.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #219 on: October 06, 2010, 08:01:53 PM »

Hmm . . . two decimal places.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #220 on: October 07, 2010, 05:04:07 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2010, 05:47:30 AM by Dan the Roman »

Chris Murphy is out with his internal

Gotham research Group for Chris Murphy
Murphy 50%
Caligiuri 37%

http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls/

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #221 on: October 07, 2010, 05:41:33 AM »

Chris Murphy is out with his internal

Gotham research Group t for Chris Murphy no dates
Murphy 50%
Caligiuri 37%

http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls/



It has dates: "Conducted September 19-21, the poll surveyed 568 likely registered voters and has a 4.1 percent margin of error."

That's pretty stale.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #222 on: October 07, 2010, 01:27:54 PM »

Del Bene (D) internal:

Democrat Suzan DelBene trails Rep. Dave Reichert 48 percent to 44 percent, a new internal poll done for the challenger shows.

The sampling by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz and Associates showed 8 percent of respondents undecided. The survey of 400 voters in the 8th Congressional District was taken Oct. 4-5 and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent. The same poll taken in August had Reichert, a Republican seeking his fourth term, up by nine points.

A SurveyUSA/KING5 poll released earlier this month had Reichert at 52 percent and DelBene at 45 percent. That showing was an improvement for the Democrat.

The Democratic and Republican national political committees will be closely watching all polling in the coming days as they make their final decisions where to allocate resources in the run up to next month's election.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/223891.asp
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Meeker
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« Reply #223 on: October 07, 2010, 01:40:00 PM »

Looks like there might be two House races in Washington we could've won any other year. Sigh...
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #224 on: October 07, 2010, 01:43:05 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2010, 02:44:32 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Buried in this article about Bright saying he won't back Pelosi is a Roby poll for AL-02:

Martha Roby (R) - 45
Bobby Bright (D) - 43

Edit: whoops, numbers backwards.

Matt Doheny/NY-23:

Matt Doheny (R) - 51
Bill Owens (D) - 37
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