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Author Topic: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)  (Read 174026 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #225 on: October 07, 2010, 02:47:08 PM »

Bobby Schilling/IL-17:

Phil Hare (D) - 38
Bobby Schilling (R) - 37
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Brittain33
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« Reply #226 on: October 07, 2010, 03:08:22 PM »


Well, that's reassuring. I think some people had written off this district for the R a while ago.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #227 on: October 07, 2010, 03:14:43 PM »

Looks like there might be two House races in Washington we could've won any other year. Sigh...

Well, 2012 should be a pretty good chance. 
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Dgov
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« Reply #228 on: October 08, 2010, 07:32:48 AM »

I don't know if this is technically an internal, but if sure feels like one:

http://www.freep.com/article/20101008/NEWS15/10080315/1318/Poll-In-House-race-Rob-Steele-leads-John-Dingell-by-4-points#ixzz11lRK7KCa

Steele is up on Dingell 44-40

MOE: 5.6%
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #229 on: October 08, 2010, 10:18:02 AM »

'parently not. Joke pollster though.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #230 on: October 08, 2010, 12:53:34 PM »

The latest polling data from The Tarrance Group shows that Alan Nunnelee has opened up a 51-40 lead over Travis Childers. This is the first time any candidate has been at or over the 50 percent mark in the race. The previous poll put Nunnelee up 48-41.

Other data:

- Nunnelee holds a 15 point lead among “extremely likely” voters (54-39)

- Nunnelee leads 56-38 among voters who have impressions of both he and Childers

- Of the 75 percent of voters who have seen, read or heard something about the Childers campaign, 43 percent are less likely to vote him based on that information

- 32 percent say Childers deserves re-election

- Republicans maintain a 53-39 edge on the generic Congressional ballot

The poll of 300 likely voters was done October 4-5 and has a 5.8 percent margin of error.

http://majorityinms.com/2010/10/07/nunnelee-expands-lead-in-latest-poll/
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #231 on: October 08, 2010, 06:58:54 PM »

Beth Anne Rankin/AR-04:

Mike Ross (D) - 44
Beth Anne Rankin (R) - 41
Joshua Drake (G) - 5

Ben Chandler/KY-06:

Ben Chandler (D) - 52
Andy Barr (R) - 40

Andy Barr/KY-06:

Andy Barr (R) - 48
Ben Chandler (D) - 47

Chet Edwards/TX-17:

Bill Flores (R) - 46
Chet Edwards (D) - 42
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #232 on: October 08, 2010, 07:19:33 PM »

Patrick Murray/VA-08:

Jim Moran (D) - 45
Patrick Murray (R) - 32
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cinyc
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« Reply #233 on: October 08, 2010, 10:37:12 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2010, 10:41:04 PM by cinyc »

McLaughlin & Associates/NY-4 (for Becker (R)):

McCarthy (D)(i) - 46%
Becker (R)         - 45%
Undecided         - 9%

October 6; 300 LV; MOE +/- 5.6%
------

This race has been on nobody's radar - though I said a month or so ago that people should watch it - and was ridiculed for it.  I still say this is a race to watch.
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Sbane
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« Reply #234 on: October 09, 2010, 11:37:55 AM »

McLaughlin & Associates/NY-4 (for Becker (R)):

McCarthy (D)(i) - 46%
Becker (R)         - 45%
Undecided         - 9%

October 6; 300 LV; MOE +/- 5.6%
------

This race has been on nobody's radar - though I said a month or so ago that people should watch it - and was ridiculed for it.  I still say this is a race to watch.

Usually when someone releases an internal showing they are behind, it's not a good sign. But even if this is a win for the Democrats, it does show that it's a decently close race which makes me wonder what's going on in more Republican districts like the 1st or the 19th.
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xavier110
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« Reply #235 on: October 09, 2010, 11:49:32 AM »

McCarthy is not going to cruise to re-election, and I think it could be a single-digit race. Nassau seems to have swung more against the Democrats than Suffolk has.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #236 on: October 09, 2010, 12:17:01 PM »

McLaughlin & Associates/NY-4 (for Becker (R)):

McCarthy (D)(i) - 46%
Becker (R)         - 45%
Undecided         - 9%

October 6; 300 LV; MOE +/- 5.6%
------

This race has been on nobody's radar - though I said a month or so ago that people should watch it - and was ridiculed for it.  I still say this is a race to watch.

Usually when someone releases an internal showing they are behind, it's not a good sign. But even if this is a win for the Democrats, it does show that it's a decently close race which makes me wonder what's going on in more Republican districts like the 1st or the 19th.
Hall's very much the underdog in the nineteenth, though he probably won't lose badly. There was talk of a serious R challenge in the 1st earlier in the cycle but it seems to have died away.
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cinyc
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« Reply #237 on: October 09, 2010, 02:20:29 PM »
« Edited: October 09, 2010, 02:53:17 PM by cinyc »

Hall's very much the underdog in the nineteenth, though he probably won't lose badly. There was talk of a serious R challenge in the 1st earlier in the cycle but it seems to have died away.

There is a serious R challenge in NY-01 - though the Republicans decided to shoot themselves n the foot by running a crowded, contested primary instead of getting behind a candidate.  The most recent Republican internal polling showed the race a dead heat, with about 20% undecided.

FWIW, Maurice Hinchey's (D) opponent in NY-22, which stretches from Poughkeepsie to Binghamton, is still touting an August internal by Magellan Strategies, showing:

Hinchey (D)(i) - 44%
Philips (R)       - 37%
Undecided      - 19%

There was an op-ed piece about the race in today's New York Post.  NY-22 is a D+6 district.

I'd file that one in the way too good to be true column for now, especially since it's a very stale internal.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #238 on: October 09, 2010, 07:14:54 PM »

NY-1 is the sort of place that might get swept away in a big wave regardless. Stress on 'might'.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #239 on: October 09, 2010, 08:22:44 PM »

Beth Anne Rankin/AR-04:

Mike Ross (D) - 44
Beth Anne Rankin (R) - 41
Joshua Drake (G) - 5



Isn't this somewhat surprising? I thought Ross was safe, but maybe not, idk.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #240 on: October 09, 2010, 08:25:38 PM »

Beth Anne Rankin/AR-04:

Mike Ross (D) - 44
Beth Anne Rankin (R) - 41
Joshua Drake (G) - 5



Isn't this somewhat surprising? I thought Ross was safe, but maybe not, idk.

An internal from his opponent showing him ahead.
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cinyc
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« Reply #241 on: October 10, 2010, 01:26:58 AM »
« Edited: October 10, 2010, 01:36:12 AM by cinyc »

MS-04

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%

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Beet
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« Reply #242 on: October 10, 2010, 01:42:45 AM »

NY-1 is the sort of place that might get swept away in a big wave regardless. Stress on 'might'.

What are the characteristics you look for the 'sort of place' that might get swept away in a big wave?
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #243 on: October 10, 2010, 01:47:20 AM »


See BRTD, I told you. Jimbo better make sure the folks working the iron range show up to vote, because the tea partiers in the southern part of the CD certainly will be, phalanx after phalanx of them, almost as one body.

Trailing in your own internal is not something common among anyone likely to be much of a threat.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #244 on: October 10, 2010, 07:16:14 AM »

Raul Labrador/ID-01:

Walt Minnick (D) - 37
Raul Labrador (R) - 31

Scott DesJarlais/TN-04:

Lincoln Davis (D) - 42
Scott DesJarlais (R) - 42
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #245 on: October 10, 2010, 09:51:03 AM »


LOL. I know Minnick may as well be a Republican, but still, it's hilarious that they can't pick up an R+18.
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Torie
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« Reply #246 on: October 10, 2010, 10:04:48 AM »


See BRTD, I told you. Jimbo better make sure the folks working the iron range show up to vote, because the tea partiers in the southern part of the CD certainly will be, phalanx after phalanx of them, almost as one body.

Trailing in your own internal is not something common among anyone likely to be much of a threat.

Yes, of course, but ...let's see if any money moves up that way.  The GOP candidate presents a quite presentatable image.
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Dgov
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« Reply #247 on: October 10, 2010, 11:34:47 AM »

MS-04

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%



Wow, i didn't expect to see this one so close.  Talyor is probably the most Conservative Democrat in congress right now, and his seat would be an easy GOP hold should they pick it up.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #248 on: October 10, 2010, 12:27:54 PM »

MS-04

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%



Wow, i didn't expect to see this one so close.  Talyor is probably the most Conservative Democrat in congress right now, and his seat would be an easy GOP hold should they pick it up.

Dems would probably be better off without Taylor, unless he is #218.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #249 on: October 10, 2010, 12:40:24 PM »

I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.
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