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Author Topic: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)  (Read 41303 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2010, 10:23:45 pm »
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Grayson is brilliant. Watch him cruise to victory. People need to remember that he acts the way that he does for a reason and not because he is a loon. Grayson shows how fighting back against the Republicans works, although I dislike his methods. Grayson positions himself very well and actually manages to be on the right side of most if not all of the issues. I'd place a bet that more Grayson-like characters are going to start popping up in the Democratic Party, especially if Obama is defeated in 2012.
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Economic score: -6.26
Social score: -7.74
Vepres
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« Reply #26 on: September 03, 2010, 11:50:53 pm »
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Grayson is brilliant. Watch him cruise to victory. People need to remember that he acts the way that he does for a reason and not because he is a loon. Grayson shows how fighting back against the Republicans works, although I dislike his methods. Grayson positions himself very well and actually manages to be on the right side of most if not all of the issues. I'd place a bet that more Grayson-like characters are going to start popping up in the Democratic Party, especially if Obama is defeated in 2012.

The problem is he comes off as an arrogant jerk, and that he represents a swing district.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #27 on: September 04, 2010, 06:25:10 am »
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A swing district full of suburban partisans, to boot.

Which means that my prediction is that he'll do right about as well as he would have if he were a blue dog type (ie, lose, if the wave happens on the magnitude we're expecting, and unless his opponent is total trash.)
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Holmes
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« Reply #28 on: September 04, 2010, 10:11:37 am »
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He's the Democratic Bachmann, obviously.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #29 on: September 04, 2010, 12:40:17 pm »
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He's the Democratic Bachmann, obviously.
Bachmann's seat is also polarized, and not supermajority Republican - but it's still a solid majority. It's not a genuine swing district.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #30 on: September 04, 2010, 07:50:52 pm »
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Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02:

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41
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« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2010, 10:00:20 am »
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Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02:

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41


Loebsack is safe. FANTASTIC!
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Torie
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« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2010, 10:27:15 am »
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Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02:

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41


"A poll of 400 likely voters conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research between June 23rd and June 25th ... ."  I guess the Pony Express took a wrong turn in delivering this exciting news to the public square or something. Smiley

But hey, if it were close in June, ... 
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« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2010, 10:33:02 am »
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Loebsack's not going anywhere, the only seat in Iowa that is really competitive this year is Boswell's. Besides that, a campaign's own internal showing them behind isn't a good sign.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2010, 10:36:05 am by DrScholl »Logged

Please seek a 5150 if your candidate loses.
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2010, 11:42:09 am »
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Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02:

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41


"A poll of 400 likely voters conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research between June 23rd and June 25th ... ."  I guess the Pony Express took a wrong turn in delivering this exciting news to the public square or something. Smiley

But hey, if it were close in June, ... 


Releasing an internal poll showing yourself down is basically saying "we have no shot".
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Holmes
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« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2010, 06:41:52 pm »
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Well, Torie fell for what they're selling.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #36 on: September 07, 2010, 09:55:28 am »
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A poll for Childers (D-MS1) has Childers ahead by 5.

Childers: 46%
Nunnelee: 41%

The Democratic firm surveyed 400 likely voters in the district Aug. 30 to Sept. 1. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent, which means Childers' lead could be razor thin.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/117337-rep-childers-has-edge-on-gop-challenger-in-poll-
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #37 on: September 07, 2010, 11:14:13 am »
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A poll for Perriello (D) shows Hurt (R) ahead:

44% - Hurt (R)
42% - Perriello (D)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/09/with_new_poll_democrats_make_c.html
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Torie
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« Reply #38 on: September 07, 2010, 11:31:51 am »
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A poll for Perriello (D) shows Hurt (R) ahead:

44% - Hurt (R)
42% - Perriello (D)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/09/with_new_poll_democrats_make_c.html

He's worried that  he will be triaged out. This poll was for Pelosi.
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Lief
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« Reply #39 on: September 07, 2010, 12:24:00 pm »
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DCCC/Dem Internal Dump: http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7538/dccc-releases-internals-from-five-districts

AL-02
Bobby Bright (D-inc): 52
Martha Roby (R): 43

NC-08
Larry Kissell (D-inc): 48
Harold Johnnson (R): 36
Thomas Hill (L): 6

NY-24
Mike Arcuri (D-inc): 50
Richard Hanna (R): 37

SD-AL
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50
Kristi Noem (R): 39
B. Thomas Marking (I): 4

VA-05
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 42
Rob Hurt (R): 44
Jeff Clark (T): 6

IL-10 (May in parentheses)
Dan Seals (D): 49 (46)
Bob Dold (R): 36 (38)

MS-01
Travis Childers (D-inc): 46
Alan Nunnelee (R): 41

PA-04
Jason Altmire (D-inc): 51
Keith Rothfus (R): 24
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Torie
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« Reply #40 on: September 07, 2010, 12:33:42 pm »
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Campaign Spot has put up an internal GOP poll for CT-5 showing Murphy (D) ahead by 1%, 40%-39%.

A remarkable across the board Dem surge in the post above, I must say.
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Rowan
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« Reply #41 on: September 07, 2010, 12:39:27 pm »
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Since today seems to be internal day, here's another:

KS-04

Pompeo(R): 50%
Goyle(D): 47%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37051149/Raj-Goyle-August-2010-Poll
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #42 on: September 07, 2010, 12:44:26 pm »
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Since today seems to be internal day, here's another:

KS-04

Pompeo(R): 50%
Goyle(D): 47%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37051149/Raj-Goyle-August-2010-Poll

This poll is almost 1 month old and was conducted at the same time as the SUSA poll, which had Pompeo up by only 7 points - before the racist postings of Pompeo.

The DCCC should probably put some money into this district.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #43 on: September 07, 2010, 12:55:28 pm »
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Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126
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Lief
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« Reply #44 on: September 07, 2010, 12:57:06 pm »
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Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126

wtf?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #45 on: September 07, 2010, 12:59:50 pm »
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Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126

wtf?

Well, remember that Price was elected in the 80s, then got defeated in the 94 GOP wave and got the seat back in 1996.

Itīs not that impossible that he loses again in a similar wave this year. In 2008, he got 63% to 37% against Lawson and a 13-point swing from 2008 to 2010 is not impossible.

We'll see ...
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Rowan
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« Reply #46 on: September 07, 2010, 01:06:13 pm »
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And here's yet another:

FL-24

Adams(R): 49%
Kosmas(D-Inc): 37%

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/09/gop-poll-shows-sandy-adams-beating-suzanne-kosmas.html
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« Reply #47 on: September 07, 2010, 01:17:17 pm »
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Campaign Spot has put up an internal GOP poll for CT-5 showing Murphy (D) ahead by 1%, 40%-39%.

I'm curious what goes on in your brain when you read a poll like that (other than a burst of happy surprise.) What adjustments do you make to the numbers for the final expected outcome, if any? Do you see the pendulum swinging further Republican in the next two months? What adjustments should Democrats make to Democratic internal polls, ig any?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #48 on: September 07, 2010, 01:17:47 pm »
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And here's yet another:

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for David McKinley (R-WV 01):

41% - Mike Oliverio (D)
36% - David McKinley (R)

McKinley's lead among voters who have an opinion of both candidates is 53 percent to Oliverio's 40 percent, Rob Autry, McKinley's polling strategist, said.

The survey by Public Opinion Strategies was conducted Sept. 1 and 2 and polled 500 likely voters. The company's clients are primarily Republicans, including Rep. Shelley Capito of West Virginia and Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

"They are the premiere polling firm on the U.S. political scene," said Steve Cohen, a McKinley spokesman.

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/page/content.detail/id/538821/McKinley-poll-shows-gap-closing-with-Oliverio.html?nav=5061
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Lief
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« Reply #49 on: September 07, 2010, 01:22:18 pm »
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Down five in your own internal? lol
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