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Author Topic: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)  (Read 174016 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #250 on: October 10, 2010, 01:26:55 PM »

I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.

That certainly sounds reliable.
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Vepres
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« Reply #251 on: October 10, 2010, 02:54:23 PM »

I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.

That certainly sounds reliable.

There's been mutterings about that race here and there.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #252 on: October 10, 2010, 06:15:48 PM »

I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.

That certainly sounds reliable.

MA-06 would be more believable at this point. With Tierney having his wife plead guilty, and revelations of illegal donations.
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Dgov
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« Reply #253 on: October 11, 2010, 12:27:19 PM »

Again, I don't know if it's an Internal, but:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM136_101010_grijalva_poll.html

Grijalva 40, McClung 38
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #254 on: October 11, 2010, 01:07:47 PM »

Magellan is a Republican firm, and they ask a lot of leading questions before they get to the head-to-head matchup.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #255 on: October 11, 2010, 01:15:35 PM »


If Grijalva were ever going to lose, it would be this year.  He has been openly encouragin businesses to boycott his own state since the spring.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #256 on: October 11, 2010, 01:39:27 PM »

DCCC drops another batch of polls.

AZ-05

Harry Mitchell (D) - 46
David Schweikert (R) - 39

HI-01

Colleen Hanabusa (D) - 48
Charles Djou (R) - 44

IL-14

Bill Foster (D) - 48
Randy Hultgren (R) - 38

IA-03

Leonard Boswell (D) - 49
Brad Zaun (R) - 41

NC-07

Mike McIntyre (D) - 52
Ilario Pantano (R) - 41

NC-11

Heath Shuler (D) - 54
Jeff Miller (R) - 41

PA-15

Charlie Dent (R) - 45
John Callahan (D) - 43

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #257 on: October 11, 2010, 01:44:10 PM »

Some of those look quite believable... and others don't.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #258 on: October 11, 2010, 03:47:15 PM »

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Hm... this race is starting to worry me. Obama needs to cut Hanabusa a TV ad, if he hasn't yet.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #259 on: October 11, 2010, 05:04:04 PM »

Dent's district is probanbly a sleeper race. callahan is a formidable challenger. but 2010 is 2010...
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #260 on: October 11, 2010, 09:31:36 PM »

Blake Farenthold/TX-27:

Blake Farenthold (R) - 44
Solomon Ortiz (D) - 36
Ed Mishou (L) - 2

Farenthold somehow managed to have negative $5,000 in the bank as of the second quarter. I don't know where he came up with the money for a poll.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #261 on: October 11, 2010, 11:52:27 PM »

I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.

That certainly sounds reliable.

The race in MA-04 may indeed be close. Barney Frank is starting to push Chris Dodd-level unfavorables, and is an easy target for having his fingerprints all over the housing bust. He's favored to win, of course, but this will be his most difficult race ever.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #262 on: October 12, 2010, 01:28:04 AM »

Schwartz wants us to believe she's on track to do as well as she did in 2004 and 2008 - http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/Schwartz_October_poll_memo1.pdf

Schwartz (D) - 57%
Adcock (R) - 32%
Undecided - 11%

My favorite bit: 67% believe "I may not always agree with Allyson Schwartz but she has been an effective advocate for this area in Congress."
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #263 on: October 12, 2010, 06:28:35 AM »

Sounds like a 25-point informed ballot poll lead to me.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #264 on: October 12, 2010, 07:25:18 AM »

After reading JLT's prediction thread, I realize that we missed this one. No need to guess that this is an (R) internal:

NY-25, picked up by Maffei in 2008
Dan Maffei (D-inc.) 39% (–7)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 40% (+3)

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_101007_ny_exec_summary.html
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #265 on: October 12, 2010, 07:41:56 AM »

After reading JLT's prediction thread, I realize that we missed this one. No need to guess that this is an (R) internal:

NY-25, picked up by Maffei in 2008
Dan Maffei (D-inc.) 39% (–7)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 40% (+3)

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_101007_ny_exec_summary.html

You must not read my thread at all.  Somehow I feel a little saddened...
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #266 on: October 12, 2010, 08:48:10 AM »

After reading JLT's prediction thread, I realize that we missed this one. No need to guess that this is an (R) internal:

NY-25, picked up by Maffei in 2008
Dan Maffei (D-inc.) 39% (–7)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 40% (+3)

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_101007_ny_exec_summary.html

You must not read my thread at all.  Somehow I feel a little saddened...

When I said "missed this one," I meant "missed this poll," which has been floating out there for about a week now.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #267 on: October 12, 2010, 09:15:05 AM »

Not sure if its appropriate, but expect an MA-06 NRCC poll release later this week once the MA GOP figures out what they want to do with Hudak.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #268 on: October 12, 2010, 11:26:34 AM »

Republicans are pushing back on recent Democratic polling that shows Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) leading Republican challenger Dave Schweikert in Arizona's 5th District.

An internal Schweikert campaign poll leaked to Hotline On Call shows Schweikert leading Mitchell by a 45% to 43% margin. The poll was conducted by National Research Inc. on Oct. 5 and 6 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Those numbers contrast recent Democratic numbers we've seen. The DCCC released an internal poll on Monday that showed Mitchell leading 46% to 39%. That poll was conducted during the same time frame and had the same margin of error. Other recent Democratic polling has also showed the race to be either tied, or with Mitchell holding a slight lead.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/gop_poll_schwei.php
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #269 on: October 12, 2010, 07:11:26 PM »

Debbie Halvorson/IL-11:

Adam Kinzinger (R) - 45
Debbie Halvorson (D) - 41
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Meeker
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« Reply #270 on: October 12, 2010, 07:25:40 PM »

I'd be more upset if Adam Kinzinger wasn't so dashingly good-looking.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #271 on: October 12, 2010, 07:32:15 PM »

I know, Aaron Schock is so last year's model.
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cinyc
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« Reply #272 on: October 13, 2010, 01:57:10 AM »

NY-24 McLaughlin for Hanna (R)

Hanna (R)   - 46%
Arcuri (D)(i) - 43%
Undecided  - 11%

October 6-7; 300 LV(assumed); MoE +/- 5.6%
-----------------------

One interesting thing I learned recently by accident when looking at the NYS Board of Elections website for something else is that New York law actually REQUIRES candidates to release a lot of information within 48 hours of teasing internal poll results, including the "exact wording of the questions asked in the poll and the sequence of such questions."   Perhaps the full poll is floating around somewhere, though I haven't found it yet.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #273 on: October 13, 2010, 12:04:38 PM »

Jesse Jackson internal:

According to the poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners, and paid for by Jackson’s reelection campaign, 58 percent of voters support Jackson, compared to 11 percent supporting Republican Isaac Hayes and 6 percent supporting Green Party candidate Anthony Williams. Twenty-five percent of the voters were undecided a month before the election.

According to the poll, 67 percent of the voters believe Jackson cares about people like them; 63 percent say he gets things done; 58 percent say he has worked hard to make the economy stronger in the district and 54 percent say he shares their values.

The poll was conducted by phone Sept. 29 through October 3, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.chicagodefender.com/article-9092-jacksonrss-poll-put-him-47-points-ahead.html
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #274 on: October 13, 2010, 12:07:02 PM »

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