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Author Topic: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)  (Read 39097 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #325 on: October 21, 2010, 10:19:47 am »
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Meanwhile, DCCC threw its first money of the cycle at Shuler yesterday.
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Rowan
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« Reply #326 on: October 21, 2010, 04:42:42 pm »
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Tarrance Group(R) for Steve Pearce

Pearce: 50%
Teague: 41%

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/steve-pearce-poll-shows-him-le.html?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #327 on: October 21, 2010, 05:52:48 pm »
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Tim Walz (D) in MN-01 has him up 50-34.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #328 on: October 22, 2010, 01:13:46 am »
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Is there anymore polling going on in NC-11, or is the DCCC it? I'd love to see a more credible survey on this race. This district is historically Republican, and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #329 on: October 22, 2010, 07:11:34 am »
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Scott Rigell (R) in VA-02 has him up 46-41 over Glenn Nye (D), with 5% to the independent.

Dem poll of VA-05 has Robert Hurt (R) ahead of Tom Perriello (D) by 47-46, with 3% for the independent.
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Rowan
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« Reply #330 on: October 22, 2010, 08:14:16 am »
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Tarrance Group(R) IA-02

Miller-Meeks (R): 45
Loebsack (D): 44

http://theiowarepublican.com/home/2010/10/22/miller-meeks-leads-loebsack-45-to-44-in-new-poll/comment-page-1/
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Rowan
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« Reply #331 on: October 22, 2010, 08:38:43 am »
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Tarrance Group(R)

MS-04

Palazzo(R): 43%
Taylor(D): 41%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/39861528/MS-04-Tarrance-for-Palazzo-Oct-2010
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« Reply #332 on: October 22, 2010, 08:57:15 am »
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Is there anymore polling going on in NC-11, or is the DCCC it? I'd love to see a more credible survey on this race. This district is historically Republican, and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.
When one candidate releases internals showing himself well up, and the other candidate doesn't release any internals at all, it *tends to* mean their own internals agree with the other side's assessment.
Meanwhile, when one side releases internals showing themselves tied or worse but at least a lot better than the last few cycles, and the other side doesn't release anything, it *tends to* mean they have reason not to consider the opponent worthy of attention.
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« Reply #333 on: October 22, 2010, 09:56:38 am »
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This district is historically Republican

That's not true. It is historically a 'marginal' Democratic district that became a more genuine marginal in the 1970s. In the 80s it was a ridiculous swing district, changing hands in 1980, 1982, 1984 and 1986.

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and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.

Sixteen years and never really securely (at least by American standards). That louse Taylor lucked out with piss poor opponents for years before getting hit by a wave in 2006.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #334 on: October 22, 2010, 10:06:30 am »
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This district is historically Republican

That's not true. It is historically a 'marginal' Democratic district that became a more genuine marginal in the 1970s. In the 80s it was a ridiculous swing district, changing hands in 1980, 1982, 1984 and 1986.

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and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.

Sixteen years and never really securely (at least by American standards). That louse Taylor lucked out with piss poor opponents for years before getting hit by a wave in 2006.

This district IS republican +6. in a big wave, republicans should be leading here. and they aren't
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #335 on: October 22, 2010, 10:08:44 am »
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Whenever citing PVI while talking about House races, please remember that Democrats tend to underpoll (or Republicans tend to overpoll, use whichever you like) in presidential races in poor and/or nonmetropolitan areas compared to their actual strength there, which is more evident in House races.
Thank you.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #336 on: October 22, 2010, 06:53:37 pm »
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John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D).
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« Reply #337 on: October 22, 2010, 06:55:41 pm »
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LoL
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #338 on: October 22, 2010, 07:11:40 pm »
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I'd love to see it.  I was widely mocked on this website for claiming the RI-01 race could be close after Scott Brown's victory and Patrick Kennedy's decision not to run again.  (Kennedy might have been doing worse than Cicilline, though).
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #339 on: October 22, 2010, 07:17:09 pm »
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If RI-01 were anything near close, the parties would be throwing money at it. Loughlin also hasn't raised much; about 1/3 of Cicilline's take so far.

Dem poll puts Maurice Hinchey (D) in NY-22 up 51-34.
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cinyc
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« Reply #340 on: October 22, 2010, 07:21:20 pm »
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If RI-01 were anything near close, the parties would be throwing money at it. Loughlin also hasn't raised much; about 1/3 of Cicilline's take so far.

Dem poll puts Maurice Hinchey (D) in NY-22 up 51-34.

Show us your actual poll, Hinchey.  If you're shopping it, New York law requires it be filed with the Board within 48 hours.  We'd love to see the wording of the questions.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #341 on: October 22, 2010, 07:29:10 pm »
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It's for the DCCC, not Hinchey.
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cinyc
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« Reply #342 on: October 22, 2010, 07:32:37 pm »
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It's for the DCCC, not Hinchey.

Under New York law, that doesn't matter:

§ 6201.2 Use of Public Opinion Polls

No candidate, political party or committee shall attempt to promote the success or defeat of a candidate by directly or indirectly disclosing or causing to be disclosed the results of a poll relating to a candidate for such an office or position, unless within 48 hours after such disclosure, they provide the following information concerning the poll to the board or officer with whom statements or copies of statements of campaign receipts and expenditures are required to be filed by the candidate to whom such poll relates:

   a. The name of the person, party or organization that contracted for or who commissioned the poll and/or paid for it.
   b. The name and address of the organization that conducted the poll.
   c. The numerical size of the total poll sample, the geographic area covered by the poll and any special characteristics of the population included in the poll sample.
   d. The exact wording of the questions asked in the poll and the sequence of such questions.
   e. The method of polling–whether by personal interview, telephone, mail or other.
   f. The time period during which the poll was conducted.
   g. The number of persons in the poll sample: the number contacted who responded to each specific poll question; the number of persons contacted who did not so respond.
   h. The results of the poll.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/RunningOffice.html
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #343 on: October 22, 2010, 07:55:27 pm »
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Is that even enforceable for Congressional candidates? I mean, what's the penalty for not doing so?
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cinyc
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« Reply #344 on: October 22, 2010, 08:16:01 pm »
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Is that even enforceable for Congressional candidates? I mean, what's the penalty for not doing so?

Good question, since their reports go to the FEC, not the state.  I have no idea what the penalty is - probably not much - though the shame from not complying with the law ought to be enough, if used properly by the opponent. 

You will see that for most New York internals, the polling memo often ends up online somewhere.
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Former Moderate
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« Reply #345 on: October 23, 2010, 04:48:29 am »
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Laugh all you want, but Obama is actually heading to RI to make a last-minute campaign stop for Cicilline, and ... Hmm, perhaps we just added two and two?
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« Reply #346 on: October 23, 2010, 06:40:36 am »
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Laugh all you want, but Obama is actually heading to RI to make a last-minute campaign stop for Cicilline, and ... Hmm, perhaps we just added two and two?

If it's tied in a republican internal, cicilline should be safe.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Torie
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« Reply #347 on: October 23, 2010, 10:32:44 am »
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Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4%, 48-44.  Whatever.
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« Reply #348 on: October 23, 2010, 10:47:08 am »
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Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4%, 48-44.  Whatever.

That poll is a sh**t.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Meeker
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« Reply #349 on: October 23, 2010, 01:46:34 pm »
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Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4%, 48-44.  Whatever.

Hahahaha
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