INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[Torie]

Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02:

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41

"A poll of 400 likely voters conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research between June 23rd and June 25th ... ."  I guess the Pony Express took a wrong turn in delivering this exciting news to the public square or something.

But hey, if it were close in June, ... 

[Torie]

A poll for Perriello (D) shows Hurt (R) ahead:

44% - Hurt (R)
42% - Perriello (D)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/09/with_new_poll_democrats_make_c.html

He's worried that  he will be triaged out. This poll was for Pelosi.

[Torie]

Campaign Spot has put up an internal GOP poll for CT-5 showing Murphy (D) ahead by 1%, 40%-39%.

A remarkable across the board Dem surge in the post above, I must say.

[Torie]

Campaign Spot has put up an internal GOP poll for CT-5 showing Murphy (D) ahead by 1%, 40%-39%.

I'm curious what goes on in your brain when you read a poll like that (other than a burst of happy surprise.) What adjustments do you make to the numbers for the final expected outcome, if any? Do you see the pendulum swinging further Republican in the next two months? What adjustments should Democrats make to Democratic internal polls, ig any?

I fit them into a matrix in my mind, compare them to other polls in other races, and am fully prepared to assume that they have a party bias, particularly if they seem out of line. The context of the internal matters too. Having a Dem poll dump like the above with numbers generally way out of line, suggests to me that it is quite likely that they are fund raising, or Pelosi triage insulating, spam or on the order thereof.

I don't take the CT-5 result too seriously. The pubbie is probably down by at least 5% in reality, and probably closer to 10%.  I discount it in part because it was released by the GOP candidate. It is also out of line with my vision of the current size of the wave; the elevation of the CD is a bit too high to be in that much danger of getting wet. Heck, it is not even one of the 113 districts that RCP has put up as being in some play, so maybe my use of the word "bit" should be changed to "considerably."  I am unaware of anything to adjust for individual candidate issues, in any event.

Oh, and if an internal polling outfit puts something out, which is then approximated by a respectable poll, and I remember the outfit, I then take their numbers a bit more seriously.

Another problem is data mining. It may be some campaign took 10 internal polls, and maybe stopped half of them in midstream when the numbers looked bad, and then finished one up when the numbers were looking much better (or finished 4 up, and then picked the best one to release). In that regard, it helps to keep the sample size down. Addendum: Notice that the Dems sat on this batch of polls for a week, and then dropped them against the generic bad news, and the triage story. I wonder how many internals the Dems did?  Did they just pick the best few out of 50?  That is another way to data mine.  Someone should ask them this question.

So, as usual, context is everything.

I think the odds are about 3-2 that the pendulum will swing back to the Dems somewhat, as voters near the end regress some towards prior voting patterns, and all that money the Dems spends, gets traction in some races. But it won't be enough for the Dems to avoid losing the House and probably losing around 50 seats. (I have the no swing number in my mind at 65 seats at the moment.)  And there is some chance the pendulum will swing a bit more against the Dems, or the turnouts on election day bite them in the ass more than anticipated. As a wild guess, I put 90 seats as the maximum "still on this planet" GOP gain.

[Torie]

Here are a few AZ GOP internals:

AZ-01: 43% Ann Kirkpatrick (D), 43% Paul Gosar (R)

AZ-05: 46% David Schweikert (R), 38% Harry Mitchell (D)

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003729182

AZ-5 is gone for the Dems. I listened to the GOP candidate today. He was quite good, and the Dem voted for Obamacare after saying he would not. He's done.

[Torie]

These polls are a month old (well a month for Murphy, and three weeks old for Fitz).  A lot has happened since then.

[Torie]

What is going on in NM-2?  Is Pearce a suck candidate or something?

[Torie]

     Teague is leading by 7 in a Dem internal? This could be signalling movement back to Pearce. It could also be signalling nothing, but it's still interesting.

Good point; the last poll showing Teague up by a similar amount was an independent poll, wasn't it?

[Torie]

There've been some pretty rough attack ads run against Pearce recently as well.

Saying what?  What is the angle being used to trash him? 

[Torie]

The sale of a business for twice its value to someone for whom he does favors, sounds like a crime to me. But yes, unless Peace can refute it, it is pretty devastating. Heck, without knowing more, I could not vote for him. Personal ethics means a lot to me.

[Torie]

Who on the IA-2 number, just wow.

[Torie]

Kratovil is ahead of Harris? Wasn't that supposed to be like the most vulnerable seat in the nation?

It was in the top 30. When we see anomalies like this, one needs to check if something odd and micro is going on in the district, or whether it might be just a bad poll, or whether something more systemic is going on, either in the state or regionally or nationally. I start off myself with the micro of course, after checking out whether the poll makes much sense.

[Torie]

Something's wrong there. Probably misleadingly worded on purpose. Perhaps they mean those who say they'll "most likely" (ie probably) vote - as opposed to either the actual likely voters? I dunno.

Maybe the pollster is struggling with how high the black turnout will be.

[Torie]

Ben Chandler/KY-06:

Ben Chandler (D) - 53
Andy Barr (R) - 33

Did Chandler vote against the stimulus and Obamacare?

[Torie]

I wonder how Klein "inadvertently" releasing to thousands West's social security number, and then the classless way he handled the damage control (West is making a big thing over nothing because he is a paranoid type, but hey, just because, we will pay for two years the premiums to cover the damage to West from identity theft), will affect this race. I suspect it will defeat him frankly. It was all pretty disgusting, and right wing radio is all over it, and West is going to get a bunch more money to top off the fortune he already has.

I suspect this incident will be a game changer. We shall see.

[Torie]

huh, surprisingly large lead, even for an internal.

It's the driving record thing.

[Torie]

I don't know who ccadvertising is, so I am putting this set of VA polls here.

VA-2 - Scott Rigell (R) 48.6, Nye (D) 34.5, 16.9 undecided.

VA-5 -  Robert Hurt (R) 51.1,  Tom Perriello (D) 34.7, 14.1  undecided.

VA-9 - Rick Boucher (D) 42.6,  Morgan Griffith (R) 39.7, 17.6 undecided.

VA-11 -  Keith Fimian (R) 42.2,  Connolly (D) 36.7, 21.1  undecided.

[Torie]

Is Urquhart an O'Donnell clone (sans of course that which by definition makes O'Donnell unique, like her unusual interest in masturbation and witchcraft)?

[Torie]

Chip Cravaaaaaaaack/MN-08:

Jim Oberstar (D) - 45
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack (R) - 42

See BRTD, I told you. Jimbo better make sure the folks working the iron range show up to vote, because the tea partiers in the southern part of the CD certainly will be, phalanx after phalanx of them, almost as one body.

[Torie]

Couple DCCC polls:

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38

Scott must be a very talented politician. Is he?

[Torie]

Chip Cravaaaaaaaack/MN-08:

Jim Oberstar (D) - 45
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack (R) - 42

See BRTD, I told you. Jimbo better make sure the folks working the iron range show up to vote, because the tea partiers in the southern part of the CD certainly will be, phalanx after phalanx of them, almost as one body.

Trailing in your own internal is not something common among anyone likely to be much of a threat.

Yes, of course, but ...let's see if any money moves up that way.  The GOP candidate presents a quite presentatable image.

[Torie]

I know, Aaron Schock is so last year's model.

As if. Aaron Schock now, Aaron Schock forever.

Yes, Aaron is the man.

[Torie]

Another GOP poll dump  is here. If these polls are real, the Dems must be close to being in stark terror at the moment.

 Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post:

    * FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
    * PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
    * OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
    * WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
    * NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
    * MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
    * IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
    * PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
    * VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
    * OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
    * OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
      (* = denotes incumbent)

[Torie]

Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4%, 48-44.  Whatever.

[Torie]

Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4%, 48-44.  Whatever.

Hahahaha

FWIW, Rossi in 2004 in the governor's race, carried WA-9 by one basis point. So, if his current race statewide is skin tight ... and this election is totally nationalized ?