INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[Mr.Phips]

Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126

wtf?

Well, remember that Price was elected in the 80s, then got defeated in the 94 GOP wave and got the seat back in 1996.

It´s not that impossible that he loses again in a similar wave this year. In 2008, he got 63% to 37% against Lawson and a 13-point swing from 2008 to 2010 is not impossible.

We'll see ...

The NC-04 that Price lost in in 1994 was a signficantly more Republican district than the current NC-04.  Heavily Democratic Durham county is now wholly in the district, when none of Durham was in the district in 1994(it was split between NC-02 and NC-12).  Also, marginal to Republican leaning Wake county(where Heiniman got all of his margin) was wholly in NC-04 in 1994, where now, only a small portion is in the district and it will be completely drowned out by Democratic margins in Orange and Durham.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think Price is facing another 1994, somehow. I think the district was more Republican in the 90s, although I'm not sure (it had more of Chatham and Person and some different bits of Wake).

And the fact that Elaine Marshall will almost certain win the district solidly will help him big time.  In 1994, there was nothing at the top of the ballot to draw out Democratic voters.   

[Mr.Phips]

Kissell better thank god that there is a Senate race at the top of the ballot this year, unlike 1994 to draw out Democrats in Charlotte, which will likely be his entire margin of victory. 

[Mr.Phips]

Makes you wonder what races the DCCC is polling but not releasing the results for.

SC-05, PA-03, PA-07, PA-10, PA-11, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, MI-07, VA-02.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know about the professional prognosticators, but I've had Taylor on my watch list for a long time. This is the first time in God knows how long that he's had an opponent who has more distinguishing features than just a pulse.

Taylor actually had a self-funder in 1996 and another state legislator who was Trent Lott's nephew in 2004. 

[Mr.Phips]

Austin Scott/GA-08:

Austin Scott (R) - 46
Jim Marshall (D) - 38

Damn, Ill have to change my prediction on this. 

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like there might be two House races in Washington we could've won any other year. Sigh...

Well, 2012 should be a pretty good chance. 

[Mr.Phips]

Wasnt National Research the pollster that kept showing McCain in the lead in Michigan in 2008?

[Mr.Phips]

Another GOP poll dump  is here. If these polls are real, the Dems must be close to being in stark terror at the moment.

 Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post:

    * FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
    * PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
    * OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
    * WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
    * NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
    * MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
    * IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
    * PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
    * VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
    * OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
    * OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
      (* = denotes incumbent)

I swear to god if Murphy loses(my Congressman) and I am stuck with Gibson, I am going to want Obama's head on a stick. 

[Mr.Phips]

Another GOP poll dump  is here. If these polls are real, the Dems must be close to being in stark terror at the moment.

 Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post:

    * FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
    * PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
    * OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
    * WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
    * NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
    * MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
    * IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
    * PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
    * VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
    * OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
    * OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
      (* = denotes incumbent)

I swear to god if Murphy loses(my Congressman) and I am stuck with Gibson, I am going to want Obama's head on a stick. 

He can't be worse then John Sweeney was. How long have you lived there?

My whole life.  I took us all this time to get finally rid of Sweeney and Solomon and now we are right back to where we started. 

[Mr.Phips]

cccAdvertising?  Isnt this the same pollster that showed Brown and Boxer trailing in California?