INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[Brittain33]

Campaign Spot has put up an internal GOP poll for CT-5 showing Murphy (D) ahead by 1%, 40%-39%.

I'm curious what goes on in your brain when you read a poll like that (other than a burst of happy surprise.) What adjustments do you make to the numbers for the final expected outcome, if any? Do you see the pendulum swinging further Republican in the next two months? What adjustments should Democrats make to Democratic internal polls, ig any?

[Brittain33]

Kosmas could have been saved by not voting for healthcare. But she didn't.
She also COULD HAVE at least tried to stop NASA from cutting 14000 jobs after the shuttle program.
Oh well. bye bye

1. Not in a Republican wave this size, in a district full of olds, which was drawn by a Republican for a Republican who lost because of scandal.
2. Yes, a freshman representative could have single-handedly saved the shuttle program beginning in 2009. (14,000 jobs in that district? Really?)

I'd like to think that various Republicans who went down in 2006 and 2008 could have been saved if only they'd supported my legislative priorities and gone all-out for gay marriage, but I don't think that's reasonable. (Except maybe Musgrave...)

[Brittain33]

Did I say 14000, oh I meant 23000
http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100226/NEWS0204/2260321/23-000-now-expected-to-lose-jobs-after-shuttle-retirement

and maybe she couldn't alone save the program, but she could have tried. I didn't hear anything on that.

http://www.kosmas.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=269&Itemid=1

[Brittain33]

WTF with the massive swing between "most" and "very"?!

[Brittain33]

No-hope Democratic incumbents release internals showing them down 2. Way behind Republican challengers release internals showing them down 1 and the Democrat at 40 or below.

[Brittain33]

Is there any polling on Childers?

A (D) poll had Childers up 46-41 last month. I'd be shocked if Childers survived this election.

[Brittain33]

Do you mean Kosmas instead of Schrader?

[Brittain33]

41%-20% in late September? Really?

VoteVets/SEIU are Dem-supporting groups, yes, so this should be equivalent to an internal.

[Brittain33]

Can't find anything about FL-9.

Here, this is a good guess:

Bilirakis: 58%
Some D: 33%
Tea Party: 8%

Released by Some D's campaign.

[Brittain33]

Bobby Schilling/IL-17:

Phil Hare (D) - 38
Bobby Schilling (R) - 37

Well, that's reassuring. I think some people had written off this district for the R a while ago.

[Brittain33]

The only poll there which represents something new, assuming internal consistency, is PA-10.

[Brittain33]

NRCC for MA-10 finds Jeff Perry (R) up 44-42 over Bill Keating (D), though it's two weeks old.

That race is over given that Keating was narrowly leading in independent polls before "I frisked a girl and I liked it" came back into the news. It is all over the news here and even the Republican talking head was talking about Perry in terms of his negative impact on Romney's presidential campaign.