INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[Associate Justice PiT]

FL-25/Joe Garcia:

Joe Garcia (D) - 40
David Rivera (R) - 36

Cool.

The poll has 5% going for a random "tea party" candidate. Not gonna happen.

Don't be so sure.  This is the only Democratic strategy this cycle that might actually work for them.

     When the only strategy that might work for you is affixing the "tea party" label to random dead-in-the-water independents who won't have any such label on the November ballot so as to deflate the numbers of your opponents in internal polls, you know you're in trouble.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Guess who won't be paying attention to this thread.

     Internal polls are obviously inferior to regular polls, but they aren't completely worthless. Releasing internals showing yourself tied or trailing is tantamount to admitting that you will lose, though there are uncommon cases where they do it on purpose to get money from the national party for races that are not yet on the radar.

     Point is, internals do contribute to developing one's picture of a particular race, though not in the same sense that regular polls do.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Challenger down by 5 in his own internal poll with huge undecideds? Yeah, Kissell is in great shape.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Here are a few AZ GOP internals:

AZ-01: 43% Ann Kirkpatrick (D), 43% Paul Gosar (R)

AZ-05: 46% David Schweikert (R), 38% Harry Mitchell (D)

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003729182

AZ-5 is gone for the Dems. I listened to the GOP candidate today. He was quite good, and the Dem voted for Obamacare after saying he would not. He's done.

     If voters really cared about how the candidates sounded, Jan Brewer would be doing far worse than she is. At any rate, Schweikert is polling fairly well, but I think it is far too early to pronounce AZ-05 as gone for the Democrats.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Teague is leading by 7 in a Dem internal? This could be signalling movement back to Pearce. It could also be signalling nothing, but it's still interesting.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Journal Poll isn't a familiar name to me. Are they any good?

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So the ND race is more or less where it was during the Summer. Good to know, given Rasmussen stopped with the regular updates of it.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So Mitchell's in a world of hurt, eh? Not really a surprise, though I find it amusing how desperate they are to spin this as good news for Mitchell.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So Mitchell's in a world of hurt, eh? Not really a surprise, though I find it amusing how desperate they are to spin this as good news for Mitchell.

Supposedly it's not an internal poll. It was reported wrongly as one.

     Taking a look at their homepage crowing about their role in helping elect various Democrats, they could have fooled me.

[Associate Justice PiT]

IN-08

Buschon(R): 41%
Van Haaften(D): 20%

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/starting_lineup_23.php

I have been anxiously waiting for this! A ridiculous amount of undecideds, so this could close up. But it's still encouraging to see Bucshon up by 20 points.

     Internals like that are essentially meaningless. They push heavily to get the other side's voters into the undecided camp. The percentage for Buschon probably is not far off, but Van Haaften's share could be just about anything between 35 & 55.

[Associate Justice PiT]

AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html

You scared me for a second before I realized that this internal poll was released by McClung.

Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.

Not really. The lowest Grijalva has ever gotten is 59% in 2002 when the district was created. Since then he's gotten 62%, 60.6% and 63.3%. While I'm definitely expecting some strong backlash against Democrats in Arizona due to SB1070, Grijalva outperformed Obama by 6 percentage points in 08(effect of McCain being the nominee maybe?), but this is still a very Democratic district. 50.6% of the district is latino and another 5% are native american. So based on demographics, along with Grijalva's popularity in this district and the fact that it voted for Gore, Kerry and Obama I don't think this internal poll is accurate.

     Latinos tend to have poor turnout, though. The district is D+6, so it could in theory be competitive, though that would require a much weaker Democrat than Grijalva.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Indeterminate Republican poll of DE-AL:

John Carney (D) - 45
Glen Urquhart (R) - 42

This is surprising if true.

     It's a Republican internal. The true numbers would be something in the area of 48-40, which is pretty close to what previous independent polling has shown.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Sort of disturbing that the press release claims the ccAdvertising poll is an independent poll.