INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[cinyc]

Couple DCCC polls:

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38

Countering that, the Gibson campaign leaked a POS NY-20 poll showing:

Scott Murphy (D) - 42%
Chris Gibson (R) -  38%

Among those most interested in the election, POS claims it's Gibson 41%, Murphy 40%.

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Republican internals via National Review's Campaign Spot:

IL-14
Hultgren (R) - 44%
Foster (D)(i) - 38%

Tarrance; October 3-4; 400 LV; MoE +/-4.9%

NY-01
Altschuler (R) - 40.10%
Bishop (D)(i)  - 40.35%
Undecided     - 19.55%

NY-19
Hayworth (R) - 38.36%
Hall (D)(i)       - 37.77%
Undecided     - 23.86%

NY-24
Hanna (R)      - 38.46%
Arcuri (D)(i)    - 35.61%
Undecided     - 25.93%

All NY polls are from ccAdvertising; composition unknown.

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McLaughlin & Associates/NY-4 (for Becker (R)):

McCarthy (D)(i) - 46%
Becker (R)         - 45%
Undecided         - 9%

October 6; 300 LV; MOE +/- 5.6%
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This race has been on nobody's radar - though I said a month or so ago that people should watch it - and was ridiculed for it.  I still say this is a race to watch.

[cinyc]

Hall's very much the underdog in the nineteenth, though he probably won't lose badly. There was talk of a serious R challenge in the 1st earlier in the cycle but it seems to have died away.

There is a serious R challenge in NY-01 - though the Republicans decided to shoot themselves n the foot by running a crowded, contested primary instead of getting behind a candidate.  The most recent Republican internal polling showed the race a dead heat, with about 20% undecided.

FWIW, Maurice Hinchey's (D) opponent in NY-22, which stretches from Poughkeepsie to Binghamton, is still touting an August internal by Magellan Strategies, showing:

Hinchey (D)(i) - 44%
Philips (R)       - 37%
Undecided      - 19%

There was an op-ed piece about the race in today's New York Post.  NY-22 is a D+6 district.

I'd file that one in the way too good to be true column for now, especially since it's a very stale internal.

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MS-04

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%

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NY-24 McLaughlin for Hanna (R)

Hanna (R)   - 46%
Arcuri (D)(i) - 43%
Undecided  - 11%

October 6-7; 300 LV(assumed); MoE +/- 5.6%
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One interesting thing I learned recently by accident when looking at the NYS Board of Elections website for something else is that New York law actually REQUIRES candidates to release a lot of information within 48 hours of teasing internal poll results, including the "exact wording of the questions asked in the poll and the sequence of such questions."   Perhaps the full poll is floating around somewhere, though I haven't found it yet.

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VA-08 (Republican Internal)
Moran (D)(i) - 45%
Murray (R)    - 32%

Unknown dates and sample size.

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McNerney releases a poll to push back on the SUSA one:

Jerry McNerney (D) - 45
David Harmer (R) - 35
David Christensen (AIP) - 5

That's not a very strong response imo.

At least it's only 2 weeks old, not 2 months old, as some of the other hastily leaked damage control internals were.

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MN-07 for Peterson (D)

Peterson (D)(i)                 - 54%
Byberg (R)                        - 20%
Unnamed Independent 1  -  5%
Unnamed Independent 2  -  5%
Undecided                        - 25%

September 28; Unknown Pollster; LV or RV; Sample Size; MoE.

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TN-04 for DesJarlais (R):

DesJarlais (R) - 45%
Davis (D)(i)     - 40%

Unknown dates, etc.

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I'm assuming this is an internal:
Dennis Menaced? Is Kucinich in trouble?

Kucinich is only up by 4 in a poll with an MoE of +/-5.6.  Actual percentages weren't mentioned. (OH-10)

[cinyc]

I'm assuming this is an internal:
Dennis Menaced? Is Kucinich in trouble?

Kucinich is only up by 4 in a poll with an MoE of +/-5.6.  Actual percentages weren't mentioned. (OH-10)

Have you read the article? It's actually a phoned-in scare ad.

Of course I read the article. 

It's not a phoned-in scare ad (or push poll).  The sample size was far to small for that to be even close to effective.  It's a messaging poll - the type campaigns run to try to figure out the message that polls best to decide which to go with.   Usually, they ask the topline question first and see if any potential messages change the numbers, particularly among leaners.  At times, they will ask bad things about their own candidate, too, to see which they will likely need to defend most virulently against. 

Kookcinich going down would make an excellent night, but I doubt it will happen.

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Okay, so it's a kooky extremist messaging poll.

I was really just reacting to the hedging "I'm assuming..." thing. But maybe that was ironic. Hard to tell sometimes.

The "I'm assuming" part was because it could have been done for an outside group instead of the candidate himself, and thus, not be a traditional internal for the candidate.

I suspect the PPP polls that will be released this afternoon will be similar messaging polls, though from the left.

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NY-22 (Phillips (R) internal by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies):

Maurice Hinchey (D)(i)  - 43.2%
George Phillips (R)        - 43.2%

October 19; MoE +/‐ 2.89

Assaulting members of the media - never a good idea.

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Much better to handcuff them instead.

Also not a good idea.  It's not a good idea to threaten to take them out, either. 

Threatening to take an obnoxious shock jock outside when he keeps on saying crap about your wife's postpartum depression might be okay, though (See Richard Codey). 

[cinyc]

John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D).

I'd love to see it.  I was widely mocked on this website for claiming the RI-01 race could be close after Scott Brown's victory and Patrick Kennedy's decision not to run again.  (Kennedy might have been doing worse than Cicilline, though).

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If RI-01 were anything near close, the parties would be throwing money at it. Loughlin also hasn't raised much; about 1/3 of Cicilline's take so far.

Dem poll puts Maurice Hinchey (D) in NY-22 up 51-34.

Show us your actual poll, Hinchey.  If you're shopping it, New York law requires it be filed with the Board within 48 hours.  We'd love to see the wording of the questions.

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It's for the DCCC, not Hinchey.

Under New York law, that doesn't matter:

§ 6201.2 Use of Public Opinion Polls

No candidate, political party or committee shall attempt to promote the success or defeat of a candidate by directly or indirectly disclosing or causing to be disclosed the results of a poll relating to a candidate for such an office or position, unless within 48 hours after such disclosure, they provide the following information concerning the poll to the board or officer with whom statements or copies of statements of campaign receipts and expenditures are required to be filed by the candidate to whom such poll relates:

   a. The name of the person, party or organization that contracted for or who commissioned the poll and/or paid for it.
   b. The name and address of the organization that conducted the poll.
   c. The numerical size of the total poll sample, the geographic area covered by the poll and any special characteristics of the population included in the poll sample.
   d. The exact wording of the questions asked in the poll and the sequence of such questions.
   e. The method of polling–whether by personal interview, telephone, mail or other.
   f. The time period during which the poll was conducted.
   g. The number of persons in the poll sample: the number contacted who responded to each specific poll question; the number of persons contacted who did not so respond.
   h. The results of the poll.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/RunningOffice.html

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Is that even enforceable for Congressional candidates? I mean, what's the penalty for not doing so?

Good question, since their reports go to the FEC, not the state.  I have no idea what the penalty is - probably not much - though the shame from not complying with the law ought to be enough, if used properly by the opponent. 

You will see that for most New York internals, the polling memo often ends up online somewhere.

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NY-09 R Internal:

Weiner (D)(i) - 52.3%
Turner (R)      - 47.7%

Oct. 10; 4,702 respondents

Hard to believe.

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Hard to believe.

Especially the part where it adds up, exactly, to 100. And has some weird weighting that the pollster has yet to explain.

The weighting appears to be to the November 2008 voter registration for the district.

While NY-09 is the second least Democrat-leaning district in New York City, it's hard to envision it falling.  Though seeing Chuck Schumer, Jr. lose would be excellent.