INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[Niemeyerite]

Okay, I'm tired of opening a new thread for every internal poll, so I'm just going to start posting them all in one place. Starting with this one:

Heath Shuler/NC-11:

Heath Shuler (D) - 51
Jeff Miller (R) - 34

Feel free to do the same.

if this poll is an internal, the race is closer than I expected =/

[Niemeyerite]

I guess that FL-25 poll is right. garcia can win this election. the year is bad for democrats, I know. but garcia can appeal to the Republican cuban-americans.

[Niemeyerite]

If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

[Niemeyerite]

If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

See my post above.  The Fact that he's actually under-polling by so so much in this district (40% is one of the lowest I've seen for an incumbent Democrat this cycle) suggest that his "lead" comes far more from a fractured opposition than from his own likability or support.  Let me make a bet that the 23% in this poll that supports an "Other" candidate aren't referring to the Green party ticket line.

I'll bet he loses, at best (for him) 45-55 in November.

I think grayson will be reelected. he has the money, and the charisma. and his district is not that conservative.

[Niemeyerite]

Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02:

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41

Loebsack is safe. FANTASTIC!

[Niemeyerite]

Oliverio is safe?? oh, so WV will have a dmeocrat delegation after 2010, it's becoming republican this year, like arkansas =)

[Niemeyerite]

That's about where I see Kratovil.  He's actually been a pretty good Rep. for his district.  Took a stand against HCR, and environmental issues play fairly well in his district, even among Republicans.  Plus Harris has a bit of a Bush-era vibe about him, and really comes off as a bit of a dick.  This is one of the few races where, if I was in the district, I'd vote for the Democrat.

I don't think he survives, tho.  This is a Republican district, and now that everyone has forgotten about Harris vs. Gilchrest, I think they come home to the GOP.

I agree with you: this race is a pure toss up. but my guts say kratovil will finally win.

[Niemeyerite]

Dent's district is probanbly a sleeper race. callahan is a formidable challenger. but 2010 is 2010...

[Niemeyerite]

This district is historically Republican

That's not true. It is historically a 'marginal' Democratic district that became a more genuine marginal in the 1970s. In the 80s it was a ridiculous swing district, changing hands in 1980, 1982, 1984 and 1986.

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Sixteen years and never really securely (at least by American standards). That louse Taylor lucked out with piss poor opponents for years before getting hit by a wave in 2006.

This district IS republican +6. in a big wave, republicans should be leading here. and they aren't

[Niemeyerite]

John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D).

LoL

[Niemeyerite]

John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D).

LoL

Laugh all you want, but Obama is actually heading to RI to make a last-minute campaign stop for Cicilline, and ... Hmm, perhaps we just added two and two?

If it's tied in a republican internal, cicilline should be safe.

[Niemeyerite]

Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4%, 48-44.  Whatever.

That poll is a sh**t.

[Niemeyerite]

Republican poll of AR-02 has Tim Griffin (R) up 52-40 over Joyce Elliott (D).

Zata|3, apparently a Dem poll?, has Cedric Richmond (D) beating Joseph Cao (R) 53-36 in LA-02.

Stephen Fincher (R) in TN-08 says he's up 50-35 over Roy Herron (D).

Quico Canseco (R) in TX-23 has a poll showing him up 45-39 over Ciro Rodriguez (D).

That's good news. I didn't expect AR-02 to be that close.. in a republican internal! Really, Elliot is a hard campaigner, but this race is griffin's to lose =(

And if quico canseco is up by 6% in his own poll, the race should be a pure toss-up