INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[Dgov]

LOL.  The man is proudly demonstrating on his website the fact that a high-profile incumbent like himself is winning only 40% of the voters in the district.  I'm willing to bet 80-90% of those "Others" and "Undecideds" lean Republican (given that close to 45% of Self-identified Republicans apparently aren't yet backing Webster) and will come home for Webster in November.  No way Grayson, of all Democrats, is going to win 4-1 among independent voters.

[Dgov]

If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

See my post above.  The Fact that he's actually under-polling by so so much in this district (40% is one of the lowest I've seen for an incumbent Democrat this cycle) suggest that his "lead" comes far more from a fractured opposition than from his own likability or support.  Let me make a bet that the 23% in this poll that supports an "Other" candidate aren't referring to the Green party ticket line.

I'll bet he loses, at best (for him) 45-55 in November.

[Dgov]

FL-25/Joe Garcia:

Joe Garcia (D) - 40
David Rivera (R) - 36

Cool.

The poll has 5% going for a random "tea party" candidate. Not gonna happen.

Don't be so sure.  This is the only Democratic strategy this cycle that might actually work for them.

[Dgov]

Heck, he`s gaining !

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http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_27/atr/50053-1.html

...

So, the 9-point SUSA lead isn´t so far off and they also have it getting closer.

It's an internal, and one showing the payer losing.  In other words, about a 10-point edge for Herrera is likely

[Dgov]

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Cao is down 10 in a Dem internal in the district?  This one might be salvageable after all.

[Dgov]

MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.

It's not entirely unlikely if you just assume all the undecideds break for Thompson.  The district is probably the most raciall polarized in teh country, with the Republican getting more than 80% of the White vote and the Democrat getting more than 90% of the Black vote.  The problem is that the district itself is actually 63.5% Black, which kind of destroys the Republican's chances.

[Dgov]

MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.

It's not entirely unlikely if you just assume all the undecideds break for Thompson.  The district is probably the most raciall polarized in teh country, with the Republican getting more than 80% of the White vote and the Democrat getting more than 90% of the Black vote.  The problem is that the district itself is actually 63.5% Black, which kind of destroys the Republican's chances.

Every undecided breaking for an incumbent? Yeah, that happens.

It's a common strategy for internal polling to try to get your opponent's supporters as "Undecideds".  It helps to completely "Honestly" boos your own relative numbers.  34% sounds about right for a Republican in this district

[Dgov]

AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html

You scared me for a second before I realized that this internal poll was released by McClung.

Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.

[Dgov]

I don't know if this is technically an internal, but if sure feels like one:

http://www.freep.com/article/20101008/NEWS15/10080315/1318/Poll-In-House-race-Rob-Steele-leads-John-Dingell-by-4-points#ixzz11lRK7KCa

Steele is up on Dingell 44-40

MOE: 5.6%

[Dgov]

MS-04

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%

Wow, i didn't expect to see this one so close.  Talyor is probably the most Conservative Democrat in congress right now, and his seat would be an easy GOP hold should they pick it up.

[Dgov]

Again, I don't know if it's an Internal, but:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM136_101010_grijalva_poll.html

Grijalva 40, McClung 38