INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[Skill and Chance]

Suzanne Kosmas/FL-24:

Suzanne Kosmas (D) - 45
Sandy Adams (R) - 43

Yep, she's done.

Steven Palazzo/MS-04 (buried in the article):

Gene Taylor (D) - 45
Steven Palazzo (R) - 41

Chris Carney/PA-10:

Chris Carney (D) - 46
Tom Marino (R) - 38

Good news for Taylor, but I don't think anyone suspected he was endangered this year.  Carney might be able to survive.

[Skill and Chance]

NRCC internal poll dump:

FL-24

Adams(R): 49%
Kosmas(D): 39%

MD-01

Harris(R): 43%
Kratovil(D): 39%

VA-02

Rigell(R): 45%
Nye(D): 40%

CO-03

Salazar(D): 45%
Tipton(R): 45%

AZ-05

Schweikert(R): 45%
Mitchell(D): 44%

OR-05

Bruun(R): 45%
Schrader(D): 44%

AZ-01

Gosar(R): 45%
Kirkpatrick(D): 42%

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html?wprss=thefix

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/nrcc-polling-gives-republicans.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=eye-on-2010

So Schrader is in deep trouble, while MD-01, VA-02, CO-03, and AZ-05 are polling as pure tossups?  That's remarkable on all counts (that Schrader is losing and that Kratovil is down only 4 in a GOP internal).

[Skill and Chance]

Do you mean Kosmas instead of Schrader?

Schrader in OR wasn't thought to be at risk until very recently, right?

Also, I thought for sure that Kratovil in MD-01 would be languishing in Perriello (VA-05) territory by now.  His district is even more GOP friendly than VA-05, and he voted for the stimulus and for cap and trade.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if the GOP can take the House without taking down at least 3 of Kratovil, Nye, Salazar, and Mitchell?  I'd guess no.  Wouldn't it be ironic if we ended up with a GOP senate and a Dem house?

[Skill and Chance]

Couple DCCC polls:

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38

Bad news for Bright?  He was cruising during the summer.  This probably does translate to a slight lead in unbiased polling, but only by 3 or 4 points.

[Skill and Chance]

MS-04

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%

Wow, i didn't expect to see this one so close.  Talyor is probably the most Conservative Democrat in congress right now, and his seat would be an easy GOP hold should they pick it up.

Dems would probably be better off without Taylor, unless he is #218.

[Skill and Chance]

Again, I don't know if it's an Internal, but:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM136_101010_grijalva_poll.html

Grijalva 40, McClung 38

If Grijalva were ever going to lose, it would be this year.  He has been openly encouragin businesses to boycott his own state since the spring.