Kerry wins everything he won in RL + NM + IA + NV + OH. McCain would help Kerry with moderate swing voters, especially those worried about national security. The Democratic base would still strongly support Kerry due to Iraq, since they would feel getting Bush out of there would be more important than not having a Democratic VP. Thus, Kerry would narrowly win.
Apparently, you've never heard of Markos Moulitsas
I've heard of him, but his impact among the Democratic base is way overrated. And I think you're underestimating how much many liberal Democrats wanted Bush voted out in 2004 no matter what.
