The 10 West Coast Polls for American Action Forum (R)

[Tender Branson]

400 Likely Voters in each district:

AZ-01:

Paul Gosar (R): 47%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 41%

AZ-05:

David Schweikert (R): 50%
Harry Mitchell (D): 44%

AZ-08:

Gabrielle Giffords (D): 46%
Jesse Kelly (R): 46%

CA-11:

David Harmer (R): 45%
Jerry McNerney (D): 44%

CA-47:

Loretta Sanchez (D): 45%
Van Tran (R): 43%

CO-03:

Scott Tipton (R): 51%
John Salazar (D): 43%

CO-04:

Cory Gardner (R): 50%
Betsey Markey (D): 39%

NM-01:

Martin Heinrich (D): 49%
Jon Barela (R): 42%

NV-03:

Joe Heck (R): 48%
Dina Titus (D): 45%

OR-05:

Kurt Schrader (D): 44%
Scott Bruun (R): 36%

http://americanactionforum.org/polling-data-house-districts

[Gravis Marketing]

AZ-08 and NV-03 have 50% of voters self-identifying as conservative.

[Tender Branson]

What really worries me is the similarity with other recent polls in some of these races.

Check CO-03 (Magellan), NM-01 (Albuquerque Journal) and NV-03 (Mason-Dixon).

If this is true, the Democrats are really fu**ed.

[Invisible Obama]

CA-47 is a lot more Democratic than it looks on paper, there have been big shifts in that district the past few years, so I don't see the Republican being that close there. NM-1 and NV-3 look like they are right on the mark, but I'm not buying the rest of the numbers.

[You kip if you want to...]

If this is true, the Democrats are really fu**ed.

Well, that's pretty well established. If they hold the house, then it'll be a big comeback.

[Senator Sbane]

CO-3 and CA-47 should really concern Democrats. CO-3 portends a lot of good incumbents losing their seats while CA-47 shows a slide in the Democratic vote amongst hispanics. If CA-47 is competitive, then CA-20 and CA-18 probably are as well. CA-11 is better than I expected though. Mcnerney has more favorable than unfavorable ratings. I'm optimistic, but it's going to be hard to fight against a Republican wave in a R+1 district.

[Senator Sbane]

If this is true, the Democrats are really fu**ed.

Well, that's pretty well established. If they hold the house, then it'll be a big comeback.

A few of these results would lead to a 60 seat loss, not just the 40 odd Republicans need.

[Zarn]

CO-3 and CA-47 should really concern Democrats. CO-3 portends a lot of good incumbents losing their seats while CA-47 shows a slide in the Democratic vote amongst hispanics. If CA-47 is competitive, then CA-20 and CA-18 probably are as well. CA-11 is better than I expected though. Mcnerney has more favorable than unfavorable ratings. I'm optimistic, but it's going to be hard to fight against a Republican wave in a R+1 district.

I live in a R+1 district held by a Dem... just on the other side of the country.

[JulioMadrid]

I'd want to know the poll numbers of quayle's (really shadegg's) and perlmutter's districts.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

AZ-08 and NV-03 have 50% of voters self-identifying as conservative.

Even CA-47 has 50% of voters describing themselves as conservative.

[Dgov]

AZ-08 and NV-03 have 50% of voters self-identifying as conservative.

Even CA-47 has 50% of voters describing themselves as conservative.

Well, Gallup has 43% of Americans self-describing as Conservative, and seeing as Conservatives have a turnout edge this year, i wouldn't be surprised if the General electorate was at or close to 50% Conservative.

Don't worry though--alot of Religious Blacks and Hispanics self-describe as Conservative but vote Democrat anyway.

[Senator Sbane]

So I finally looked over the internals of the CA-11 poll. Apparently 50% are conservatives and 1/3rd are above the age of 65. I can let the 50% conservative electorate slide but 1/3rd of voters are going to be above the age of 65? Is this Florida? People don't retire here, they sell their house and take their profits and move somewhere else.

As for the 50% conservative electorate...let's see here. We can assume that this district has maybe just slightly more conservatives than the national average. The national average is about 36% in good Republican years and about 32% when Republican enthusiasm is down. Let's assume that moderates and liberals decide not to turn out and there is massive conservative turnout. Even then they wouldn't make up more than 40-42% of the electorate. So in the best case scenario for the Republicans, maybe 44% of the electorate is going to be conservative. And with a 50% conservative electorate, Harmer is only up by 1. Not looking good for him. Of course the more appropriate thing to do would be to relegate this into the trash heap of polls. Too bad, I finally thought I got some good numbers about what is going to happen here. SUSA where art thou?

[Torie]

Don't you think there is some possibility that folks change what they say their ideology is, based on what issues and concerns are in play at any given time, sbane?  I mean, most folks don't have college degrees with poli sci as a major.

And look at the party split of new voter registrants in California over the past three or four months.

[Vepres]

Seniors are more likely to turn out in midterms, at least historically.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Don't you think there is some possibility that folks change what they say their ideology is, based on what issues and concerns are in play at any given time, sbane?  I mean, most folks don't have college degrees with poli sci as a major.

And look at the party split of new voter registrants in California over the past three or four months.

Comparing it to credible pollsters, these numbers aren't normal. PPP has 50% of voters identifying as Conservatives in Louisiana and this is with their new Likely Voter model. I think that tells you how ridiculous these numbers are.

[Senator Sbane]

Don't you think there is some possibility that folks change what they say their ideology is, based on what issues and concerns are in play at any given time, sbane?  I mean, most folks don't have college degrees with poli sci as a major.

And look at the party split of new voter registrants in California over the past three or four months.

Just like in 2006 the percentage of liberals jumped by 12%? No, people do not change their ideologies just like that. Perhaps there has been some movement, but it's unrealistic that the proportion of conservatives in the populace has gone up that much. The more sensible way to look at it would be that this no name polling outfit with no track record is most likely quite sh**tty. CA-11 is not some conservative bastion, it's right around the national average. Do you think the electorate this year in America at large will be 50% conservative?

I don't know how the recent registrants in California have split, but I would guess there has been a drop amongst Democrats, a rise amongst DTS and Republicans staying about the same. Am I correct?

[Torie]

Well here are the delta numbers for San Diego County between last May and last week:

GOP        4,516
Dem       -5,513
Decline  -2,609

[Senator Sbane]

Well here are the delta numbers for San Diego County between last May and last week:

GOP        4,516
Dem       -5,513
Decline  -2,609

Interesting. Where can I find these numbers? I know where to get the overall numbers, but that doesn't tell you anything useful. The current trends are important though. So is there some link I am overlooking or is this not from the California elections page?

Edit: I was looking at the registration numbers some more (from 15 days before the 2010 primary since I can't find more recent numbers on the SOS website) and compared it with the numbers from 15 days before the 2008 general election. Surprisingly, Democrats seem to have gained within that time frame. Of course things might have changed since then, but I don't see that data.

[Torie]

The San Diego County Registrar posted the recent numbers. That is why I put up that county Sbane. LA County has not put up anything yet.