CA: Survey USA: Fiorina leads Boxer by 2

[Sam Spade]

New Poll: California Senator by Survey USA on 2010-09-02

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, I: 5%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Boxer has improved her standing from the last SUSA poll.

[Holmes]

SUSA thinks the gender ratio will be 50-50?

[Vepres]

Funny that Rassy is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA.

[Dan the Roman]

Funny that Rassy is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA.

Oddly, thats been consistent with most SUSA polls this year, not just here but in Washington as well. It may have something to do with SUSA's non-weighting being more likely to capture enthusiasm than Ras' hard weighting.

[Eraserhead]

Funny that Rassy is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA.

Everyone is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ca/california_senate_boxer_vs_fiorina-1094.html

I think this race is a tad overhyped at the moment.

[Sbane]

Funny that Rassy is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA.

SUSA has been more friendly than Rass towards Republicans. We will see if they are right.

[Dan the Roman]

Funny that Rassy is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA.

SUSA has been more friendly than Rass towards Republicans. We will see if they are right.

SUSA does not weight. We will see if they are right. I suspect they may be right now, but I doubt the poll is a good prediction of what will happen in an actual election.

[Ronnie]

Funny that Rassy is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA.

Everyone is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ca/california_senate_boxer_vs_fiorina-1094.html

I think this race is a tad overhyped at the moment.

I disagree.  If you look at those polls, none have Boxer over 50% and that's a very very bad sign for her.

[Vepres]

Funny that Rassy is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA.

Everyone is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ca/california_senate_boxer_vs_fiorina-1094.html

I think this race is a tad overhyped at the moment.

I disagree.  If you look at those polls, none have Boxer over 50% and that's a very very bad sign for her.

Agreed. If you're an incumbent in a bad economy, and are polling, on average, almost 5 points below fifty, you should be worried.

Still, she doesn't seem to be afraid to attack her opponent or anything, we'll see if that works or if it backfires.

[Tender Branson]

The Only Halfway-Sane Moderator Left (Sam Spade) now has poll entering rights ?

Good ...

Now please do the same with Mr. Moderate and ban Quincy.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's important to remember that 50% is rarely the magic number in California; minor-party candidates almost always siphon off at least 5-6% of the vote, so a candidate can win with 47%. So Boxer not being at 50% isn't as big a problem as in states where ballot access is restricted to the two major parties or nobody gives a flying leap about minor-party choices.

[minionofmidas]

Besides,  her opponent has 100% name rec, so the reasons why that "rule" in discussing polls ever emerged don't exactly apply.

Take a look at that undecided figure. Hilarious.

[Sbane]

Funny that Rassy is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA.

Everyone is showing Boxer doing better than SUSA:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ca/california_senate_boxer_vs_fiorina-1094.html

I think this race is a tad overhyped at the moment.

I disagree.  If you look at those polls, none have Boxer over 50% and that's a very very bad sign for her.

Still, she doesn't seem to be afraid to attack her opponent or anything, we'll see if that works or if it backfires.

It won't backfire, trust me. If she was bringing up trivial sh**t, then maybe. But she is bringing up things like her failure at HP (being fired but leaving with $21 million while normal HP employees were laid off with peanuts for compensation) or her failure in the Mccain campaign or her overall failure at life. Another thing to keep in mind is that some of the mannerisms of Boxer that turn off men, actually attract women to her. Independent women swing races in California, and Boxer is doing just fine with them. Also look at how well she is doing with moderates, and then compare that with the governor's race. I certainly think Boxer has the advantage.

[Dan the Roman]

Boxer was neck and neck in the low 40s with Matt Fong at this point in 1998. Oddly that year, Feingold was also seen as dead and gone at this point. 

[Torie]

Boxer was neck and neck in the low 40s with Matt Fong at this point in 1998. Oddly that year, Feingold was also seen as dead and gone at this point. 

Perhaps the macro environment is a bit different this year than 1998. 

[Holmes]

I think Fiorina has a horrible resume compared to Fong, plus Boxer has much more experience campaigning now. You're putting too much trust in this "environment" and not in the candidates themselves.

[Torie]

I think Fiorina has a horrible resume compared to Fong, plus Boxer has much more experience campaigning now. You're putting too much trust in this "environment" and not in the candidates themselves.

Yes, Boxer has the edge (a slight edge), due to the Dem tilt of California, and only that really. California is pretty disconnected from its Senate candidates in general, and few will watch any of the debates, or care. But it is a macro environment, as poll after poll rolls in suggesting exactly that, macro, macro, macro, up and down the ballot, for nearly everything, and nearly everywhere, right across the fruited plain, absent compelling circumstances to the contrary, e.g. Angle.

Brewer for example just collapsed in her debate with Goddard in Arizona, just fell apart. Will it matter? I strongly doubt it.

The Dems of course will be launching their counterattack, and do it with considerable money, but with what, I am not sure (as an aside, the independent public employee "independent" expenditure ads for Brown in California, which they are rolling out, are just hilariously bad - is that the best they can do?). So far, it has been the extremism card, and rolling out the old SS chestnut, for one more dance, which is not going to work. Voters are not worrying about their SS right now; they are worried about their jobs. But I don't think the Dems will be talking much about the economy, or defending the stimulus money, as unemployment continues to blip up, now at 9.6% from 9.5% as of yesterday, and probably headed to close to 10% by election day. Maybe the Dems will panic and extend all of  the Bush tax cuts or something. But what I see so far, is a deer in the headlights phenomenon going on.

[DrScholl]

The jobs situation is the main problem, but when you have a former CEO who had no qualms about outsourcing jobs, the ball game is a lot different. Fiorina's record is something she can't hide, it's out there for everyone to see and that's her biggest roadblock.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The jobs situation is the main problem, but when you have a former CEO who had no qualms about outsourcing jobs, the ball game is a lot different. Fiorina's record is something she can't hide, it's out there for everyone to see and that's her biggest roadblock.

Of course, Fiorina can blame Boxer and her ilk for creating the taxes, regulations, and policies that encourage more outsourcing, which I have seen her do and quite effectively at that on Sunday news shows. Good candidates can neutralize their drawbacks and in some cases turn them into positive. We won't know untill the election whether Fiorina is that good or just good enough for it to not be a problem.

[Holmes]

lmao "Boxer made me outsource all those jobs" rofl.

[tpfkaw]

Social Security is to 2010 as illegal immigration is to 2006.

[DrScholl]

Of course, Fiorina can blame Boxer and her ilk for creating the taxes, regulations, and policies that encourage more outsourcing, which I have seen her do and quite effectively at that on Sunday news shows. Good candidates can neutralize their drawbacks and in some cases turn them into positive. We won't know untill the election whether Fiorina is that good or just good enough for it to not be a problem.

Blaming your opponent for your actions is weak and I don't think most people will see it that way. On top of that, she was a terrible CEO who was fired which is something that will be looked at too.