CA: Rasmussen: Boxer remains slightly ahead

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The only crosstabs that I trust at all are PPP's and even then I don't put much stock in them.

[The Vorlon]

The only crosstabs that I trust at all are PPP's and even then I don't put much stock in them.

Generically speaking, the problem with cross-tabs is that the sample just simply isn't big enough to have all sub-groups balanced.

Most pollsters are applying some for of stratification or quotas to their calling strategy, and when you have subgroups of perhaps a couple hundred persons, that subsample is likely badly unbalanced with respect to the entire population, even if the entire sample is representative.

To take an extreme (and silly) example lets say a pollster had a sample size of 8 people.

If they called one women and one man in each of the northwest, south, midwest, and west they would be geographically (kinda) representative...  let's say they had 1 African american out of the 8.. they would be (kinda) representative for the whole sample... but one geographic zone would have to be 50/50 black/white, while the other three would be 100%.... so the "crosstabs" would be all screwed up....

This is an extreme example, but the idea is still valid

[Brittain33]

Point taken, but some are not so "rich," not Republican in registration, yet still centrist and swingy. Obama got most of this vote in 2008.  Boxer will not.

Obama nearly carried Orange County, didn't he, as well as your CD? Boxer can spare some erosion there to normal values.

[Torie]

Point taken, but some are not so "rich," not Republican in registration, yet still centrist and swingy. Obama got most of this vote in 2008.  Boxer will not.

Obama nearly carried Orange County, didn't he, as well as your CD? Boxer can spare some erosion there to normal values.

True. Obama actually carried CA-48 by a few votes. Boxer won't break 40%, and it may be close to 2-1 against her.

[feeblepizza]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

[Holmes]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

You seem to have an acute understanding of California politics.

[dmmidmi]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

lol @ "Most said Obama would win Montana"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Montana

[DrScholl]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

Sorry, it's not happening. Fiorina has to at least run up a huge margin in L.A. County to offset the Bay Area and there is nothing suggesting that she will do such a thing.

[Brittain33]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

"X will win this race because people made stupid political predictions in the past."

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

How does the 2008 election in Montana and the special election in Mass. have anything to do with a senate race in California.

[Oakvale]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

Okay.

[Dgov]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

Sorry, it's not happening. Fiorina has to at least run up a huge margin in L.A. County to offset the Bay Area and there is nothing suggesting that she will do such a thing.

She doesn't have to run up a big margin in LA county, she has to run up a big margin in the Central valley and in Suburban LA.  Assuming uniform voting shifts, she has to win only about 42% in LA county to win the statewide election (but 64% in Orange County and at least 60% in the rest of Southern California).

[DrScholl]

She doesn't have to run up a big margin in LA county, she has to run up a big margin in the Central valley and in Suburban LA.  Assuming uniform voting shifts, she has to win only about 42% in LA county to win the statewide election (but 64% in Orange County and at least 60% in the rest of Southern California).

42% is what I consider to be a higher than average margin for a Republican in L.A. County (the GOP is usually in the 30s), a Republican only gets that if they face a weak Democratic candidate or if they are moderate (but even moderate Bruce McPherson didn't crack 40% in L.A. County).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

Fiorina's been upsetting me for months, so she's probably going to, at some point, upset Boxer too.

[Sbane]

Fiorina will upset Boxer. These polls don't mean anything. Most said Obama would win Montana and that Coakley would win by 30 points.

Sorry, it's not happening. Fiorina has to at least run up a huge margin in L.A. County to offset the Bay Area and there is nothing suggesting that she will do such a thing.

She doesn't have to run up a big margin in LA county, she has to run up a big margin in the Central valley and in Suburban LA.  Assuming uniform voting shifts, she has to win only about 42% in LA county to win the statewide election (but 64% in Orange County and at least 60% in the rest of Southern California).

Getting to 42% in LA county is pretty hard for a Republican to do, especially one of the caliber of Fiorina. A Republican getting to 42% in LA means they are winning the beach cities. I don't see it happening in this race, although the governor's race is a whole another matter.

[King]

42% in LA is practically impossible.  The last Senate candidate to get even 40% was Michael Huffington in the 1994 Republican wave.  And the populace has only trended Democratic since then.

Pete Wilson and Ronald Reagan did it.  But they're Pete Wilson and Ronald Reagan.  This is friggin' Carly Fiorina we're talking about.

[Torie]

Fiorina might win with 40% in LA County, but she can't go much below that. It depends on turnout models, and the degree of the swing in the Central Valley and in particular, San Diego County (a county with a lot of swing voters).

[Sbane]

Fiorina might win with 40% in LA County, but she can't go much below that. It depends on turnout models, and the degree of the swing in the Central Valley and in particular, San Diego County (a county with a lot of swing voters).

San Diego County should be interesting. Too bad SUSA includes it with the IE, which makes no sense whatsoever.

[Dgov]

Fiorina might win with 40% in LA County, but she can't go much below that. It depends on turnout models, and the degree of the swing in the Central Valley and in particular, San Diego County (a county with a lot of swing voters).

San Diego County should be interesting. Too bad SUSA includes it with the IE, which makes no sense whatsoever.

It's their general term for "Not LA County or Orange County".  It makes even less sense if you consider that the actual IE is basically indistinguishable from Los Angeles.