Millenial Generation's Democratic lean is Starting to Slip Away

[Vepres]

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1497/democrats-edge-among-millennials-slips

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[You kip if you want to...]

But... the age wave. PBrower's dreams have been crushed.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

The younger members must be more conservative or something.

[Oakvale]

Predictable. How many "millenials" are going to get excited about re-electing Harry Reid, or whoever? Democratic identification will pick up in 2012, for obvious reasons.

[Vepres]

Predictable. How many "millenials" are going to get excited about re-electing Harry Reid, or whoever? Democratic identification will pick up in 2012, for obvious reasons.

Will it? Obama is part of the establishment now, and has turned out to be a very uninspiring person while governing.

[Holmes]

Predictable. How many "millenials" are going to get excited about re-electing Harry Reid, or whoever? Democratic identification will pick up in 2012, for obvious reasons.

Will it? Obama is part of the establishment now, and has turned out to be a very uninspiring person while governing.

They'll just love to vote for Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin!

[Vepres]

Predictable. How many "millenials" are going to get excited about re-electing Harry Reid, or whoever? Democratic identification will pick up in 2012, for obvious reasons.

Will it? Obama is part of the establishment now, and has turned out to be a very uninspiring person while governing.

They'll just love to vote for Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin!

Gary Johnson? Mitch Daniels?

[Mint]

Predictable. How many "millenials" are going to get excited about re-electing Harry Reid, or whoever? Democratic identification will pick up in 2012, for obvious reasons.

Will it? Obama is part of the establishment now, and has turned out to be a very uninspiring person while governing.

They'll just love to vote for Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin!

Gary Johnson? Mitch Daniels?

Who?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Republicans continue to give young voters no reason to vote for them. They're culturally alien to the youth whether you look at education, religion or race and at the same time the youth, as usual, are one of the poorest/most unemployed demographics. Unless the GOP tries to become cosmopolitan in a big way or there is a religious revival I don't see this generation ever being Republican.

[Sbane]

There was an Obama bubble amongst millenials haha. It has burst, but notice how the generation is still pretty Democratic. I don't think you could say the same of Gen X or even the supposedly liberal boomers. And no, your views don't change as you age. Most people's views remain about the same as they age.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the defining characteristic of our generation is social liberalism. We are also more moderate than the rest of the country when it comes to economic issues, and more supportive of government programs as compared to previous generations. But there are still a lot of divisions on these issues amongst the generation and the divide is basically on class lines, as would be expected.

[Vepres]

Another thing to keep in mind is that the defining characteristic of our generation is social liberalism. We are also more moderate than the rest of the country when it comes to economic issues, and more supportive of government programs as compared to previous generations. But there are still a lot of divisions on these issues amongst the generation and the divide is basically on class lines, as would be expected.

All the rich kids out here are quasi-socialists.

Besides, it's still a little early to judge. In the 60s, people would've said that Boomers were defined by the anti-war movement and "hippies". Obviously, that didn't have a lasting effect.

People's voting patterns do remain similar, but it takes about three elections cycles to lock them, which most millenials haven't voted in that many yet.

[Dgov]

I'm actually interesting in seeing is this gap is a definitive shift Leftward or just the racial gap reappearing.  In other words, if you factor for Generation Y's higher percentages of minorities (over 40% if I remember correctly,), is there a meaningful shift?

But as for the drop, I think that has more to do with the numbers being artificially high to begin with.  My generation is (was) far less cynical about politics, and bought into this idea of hope and Change much more than any other group, and are now coming back towards their actual ideological center.

[Mint]

Besides, it's still a little early to judge. In the 60s, people would've said that Boomers were defined by the anti-war movement and "hippies". Obviously, that didn't have a lasting effect.

Not really. Even during the 60s the amount of college republicans was huge.. Certainly they were more relevant in the long run than the SDS or 'clean for eugene' types. The idea that boomers were a 'liberal' generation and shifted 'conservative' (whatever that means these days) is basically a myth.

[tpfkaw]

Besides, it's still a little early to judge. In the 60s, people would've said that Boomers were defined by the anti-war movement and "hippies". Obviously, that didn't have a lasting effect.

Not really. Even during the 60s the amount of college republicans was huge.. Certainly they were more relevant in the long run than the SDS or 'clean for eugene' types. The idea that boomers were a 'liberal' generation and shifted 'conservative' (whatever that means these days) is basically a myth.

Ditto with Millenials.

The Greatest Generation was the most liberal.  The Lost Generation turned out more conservative than the Greatest Generation.  The Boomers turned out more conservative than the Lost Generation.  Generation X turned out more conservative than the Boomers.  If we go by the trend, the Millenials should turn out more conservative still.

[Sbane]

Another thing to keep in mind is that the defining characteristic of our generation is social liberalism. We are also more moderate than the rest of the country when it comes to economic issues, and more supportive of government programs as compared to previous generations. But there are still a lot of divisions on these issues amongst the generation and the divide is basically on class lines, as would be expected.

Besides, it's still a little early to judge. In the 60s, people would've said that Boomers were defined by the anti-war movement and "hippies". Obviously, that didn't have a lasting effect.

Hippies were more visible and loud. There was certainly a "silent majority" among boomers as well as the nation as a whole. Think about all those people who didn't go to college or who had to go fight in Vietnam as opposed to just protest it. I don't think they were ever liberal. I would really be interested to know what proportion of boomers voted for Mcgovern. I wouldn't be surprised if a solid majority voted for Nixon. As Mint said, the notion that most people change their political views as they age is a myth.

Now there are certainly areas of the country where boomers are quite liberal, such as the Bay area and perhaps Boulder. But in a lot of the country the opposite is true.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Besides, it's still a little early to judge. In the 60s, people would've said that Boomers were defined by the anti-war movement and "hippies". Obviously, that didn't have a lasting effect.

Not really. Even during the 60s the amount of college republicans was huge.. Certainly they were more relevant in the long run than the SDS or 'clean for eugene' types. The idea that boomers were a 'liberal' generation and shifted 'conservative' (whatever that means these days) is basically a myth.

Pretty much, the SDS was composed almost entirely of the children of middle class to upper class liberals. The parents of the SDS members were the members of the urban professional left that existed well before the hippie movement. Most of the hippie stuff was cultural and only had a gigantic impact on a minority of the population.

[Dgov]

I would really be interested to know what proportion of boomers voted for Mcgovern. I wouldn't be surprised if a solid majority voted for Nixon. As Mint said, the notion that most people change their political views as they age is a myth.

Boomers, in 1972 went for Nixon with something on the order of 70-75% of the Vote.  I don't know the exact numbers, but it was certainly more than Obama won in 2008.

And as for the notion, it is partially true in that while people generally don't change their political views as they age, the political direction of the country changes.  It's like the saying "i didn't cross the border, the border crossed me"--their ideologies generally remain the same, but where those ideologies lie on the political spectrum does.

[Sbane]

I would really be interested to know what proportion of boomers voted for Mcgovern. I wouldn't be surprised if a solid majority voted for Nixon. As Mint said, the notion that most people change their political views as they age is a myth.

Boomers, in 1972 went for Nixon with something on the order of 70-75% of the Vote.  I don't know the exact numbers, but it was certainly more than Obama won in 2008.

Cite?

[Dgov]

I would really be interested to know what proportion of boomers voted for Mcgovern. I wouldn't be surprised if a solid majority voted for Nixon. As Mint said, the notion that most people change their political views as they age is a myth.

Boomers, in 1972 went for Nixon with something on the order of 70-75% of the Vote.  I don't know the exact numbers, but it was certainly more than Obama won in 2008.

Cite?

Actually never mind.  I must be thinking of something else, some other sources I found put Nixon roughly even with McGovern in the youth vote.

[Sbane]

I would really be interested to know what proportion of boomers voted for Mcgovern. I wouldn't be surprised if a solid majority voted for Nixon. As Mint said, the notion that most people change their political views as they age is a myth.

Boomers, in 1972 went for Nixon with something on the order of 70-75% of the Vote.  I don't know the exact numbers, but it was certainly more than Obama won in 2008.

Cite?

Actually never mind.  I must be thinking of something else, some other sources I found put Nixon roughly even with McGovern in the youth vote.

I don't doubt that Mcgovern did better with boomers than the rest of the country, but I would still think a majority supported Nixon. Elections from 1976-2004 actually had very minimal to no difference in support by age. I used to think it was just due to Bush, but there seem to be ideological reasons for the greater support for Democrats among the young. Self identified liberals are the same proportion of millenials as conservatives, which is quite different from all the other generations.

[tallguy23]

There is no way the Millenial Generation will be more conservative. They are pretty socially liberal and don't view government intervention in the economy as a bad thing. If the Republicans ran more moderate candidates they would do a lot better with the youth but as of now young voters still view them as the party of Bush and religious fundamentalists.

[Vepres]

Besides, it's still a little early to judge. In the 60s, people would've said that Boomers were defined by the anti-war movement and "hippies". Obviously, that didn't have a lasting effect.

Not really. Even during the 60s the amount of college republicans was huge.. Certainly they were more relevant in the long run than the SDS or 'clean for eugene' types. The idea that boomers were a 'liberal' generation and shifted 'conservative' (whatever that means these days) is basically a myth.

Still, I think the younger millenials will be more conservative given that times are bad and the Democrats run everything. As I said, voting patterns don't solidify until about three election cycles in, so most millenials could shift.

And I mean conservative in the fiscal sense.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Another thing to keep in mind is that the defining characteristic of our generation is social liberalism. We are also more moderate than the rest of the country when it comes to economic issues, and more supportive of government programs as compared to previous generations. But there are still a lot of divisions on these issues amongst the generation and the divide is basically on class lines, as would be expected.

All the rich kids out here are quasi-socialists.

Besides, it's still a little early to judge. In the 60s, people would've said that Boomers were defined by the anti-war movement and "hippies". Obviously, that didn't have a lasting effect.

People's voting patterns do remain similar, but it takes about three elections cycles to lock them, which most millenials haven't voted in that many yet.

Well, by 1976, there was essentially no age gap.