A few We Ask America Polls

[Tender Branson]

MI-01:

45% - Dan Benishek (R) => PICKUP
29% - Gary McDowell (D)

MI-03:

51% - Justin Amash (R)
31% - Pat Miles (D)

MI-07:

45% - Tim Walberg (R) => PICKUP
37% - Mark Schauer (D)

WI-07:

42% - Sean Duffy (R) => PICKUP
33% - Julie Lassa (D)

IL-10:

43% - Dan Seals (D) => PICKUP
40% - Robert Dold (R)

IL-11:

52% - Adam Kinzinger (R) => PICKUP
32% - Debbie Halvorson (D)

IL-14:

44% - Randy Hultgren (R) => PICKUP
37% - Bill Foster (D)

MO-03:

48% - Russ Carnahan (D)
39% - Ed Martin (R)

MO-04:

45% - Ike Skelton (D)
42% - Vicky Hartzler (R)

OH-01:

51% - Steve Chabot (R) => PICKUP
39% - Steve Driehaus (D)

OH-12:

51% - Patrick Tiberi (R)
34% - Paula Brooks (D)

OH-15:

46% - Steve Stivers (R) => PICKUP
41% - Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/08/25/mash-up-in-michigan/
http://weaskamerica.com/2010/08/09/wisconsin-7-life-after-obey/
http://weaskamerica.com/2010/08/20/adventures-in-blago-land/
http://weaskamerica.com/2010/08/18/havoc-in-the-heartland/
http://weaskamerica.com/2010/08/13/triple-play-in-the-buckeye-state/

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Any word on the reliability of this firm? I have a hard time believing some of these numbers, though admittedly I don't know where exactly I'd expect these races to stand.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Their web site gives some cheap cash-in operation vibes. Like if Ameriplan was a pollster.

[Tender Branson]

     Any word on the reliability of this firm? I have a hard time believing some of these numbers, though admittedly I don't know where exactly I'd expect these races to stand.

They got the PA-12 special election right:

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/05/14/murtha-style-mojo-or-gop-gain/

But produced crappy Obama approvals in Illinois (47% Approve, 50% Disapprove) in March.

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/03/11/il-approve-46-65-disapprove-49-54-unsure-3-81/

...

They also polled the PA and NV Senate in early August:

48% - Toomey (R)
35% - Sestak (D)

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/08/23/specters-specter-lingers-in-pennsylvania/

46% - Reid (D)
41% - Angle (R)

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/08/11/report-of-reids-death-exaggerated/

Which is consistant with other polls ...

Maybe they are a good pollster, who just got the Obama approvals wrong ...

[they don't love you like i love you]

Too bad they didn't poll the PA primary.

Maybe they are a good one who just got the Obama approvals wrong, I just have a difficult time trusting a company with this sales pitch:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It seems clearly tailored to people who don't understand polling. And this is the website of their parent company: http://xpscorporation.com

Eh, I'll have to say the jury is still out for now...

[Niemeyerite]

benisheck, the teabagger, 16% ahead? I don't buy it.

[Torie]

Assuming these polls are right, it shows why the GOP is going to take the House, and take it by a substantial margin. If a district a Dem holds has a Dem PVI of less than +4% or so, the district is in play. That is true across the nation. There are relatively few exceptions (mostly a handful of DINO's).

And the Midwest looks like slaughter ally for the Dems in particular. Candy Crowley just read on her show a quote from a labor political operative in Ohio:  "When we knocks on doors, what we hear is Glen Beck or Sean Hannity in the background."

[muon2]

Too bad they didn't poll the PA primary.

Maybe they are a good one who just got the Obama approvals wrong, I just have a difficult time trusting a company with this sales pitch:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It seems clearly tailored to people who don't understand polling. And this is the website of their parent company: http://xpscorporation.com

Eh, I'll have to say the jury is still out for now...

I had a thread with some of their results last spring. I included some information on the firm in response to questions back then. They are a GOP-related firm, but they have a decent track record for internal polls.

The Springfield Journal-Register has an informative column on the the polling company We Ask America. It seems to imply that the Obama approvals in the poll were based on statewide numbers. Other polls I've seen from that period would give a 5-10 point advantage to Obama rather than the 3% disadvantage shown here.

[muon2]

Assuming these polls are right, it shows why the GOP is going to take the House, and take it by a substantial margin. If a district a Dem holds has a Dem PVI of less than +4% or so, the district is in play. That is true across the nation. There are relatively few exceptions (mostly a handful of DINO's).

And the Midwest looks like slaughter ally for the Dems in particular. Candy Crowley just read on her show a quote from a labor political operative in Ohio:  "When we knocks on doors, what we hear is Glen Beck or Sean Hannity in the background."

In 2006 and 2008 Midwestern voters outside of the big cities really wanted an end to the internationalism as exemplified by the Iraq War, and a return to a focus on domestic issues without the wasteful spending typified by the "bridge to nowhere". The change they wanted was one of modest changes to steer the country back in the right direction. The Harding phrase "A return to normalcy" could well have applied.

The war part went OK, but the spending didn't match their expectations. What Midwesterners have seen is a dramatic new focus leading to major change on issues that didn't directly affect their pocketbook, but the pocketbook was where the effort was supposed to be.

One of the biggest concerns at the back of voters minds around me is how to end business as usual in politics. Too much of the sausagemaking protection of insiders kept appearing through the media (think of the Senate compromises with Nelson and Landrieu on health care) and that gave the impression that the "bridge to nowhere" was still the standard practice with the new administration and the Dem Congress. Obviously in IL this is amplified by the Blago trial, but even without that the national news would suffice.

The voters trusted the Dems to make these changes, but they haven't seen it. They may not trust the GOP, but many tell me that they hope divided government will find a better course than what they have seen lately.

[Vepres]

They seem somewhat pro-GOP, but pretty close to what I'd expect.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's another one, playfully titled "Will a Schilling Get You a Hare-Cut?":

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/09/08/by-request-illinois-cd-17/

Bobby Schilling (R) - 41
Phil Hare (D) - 38
Roger Davis (G) - 4

[Mr.Phips]

Here's another one, playfully titled "Will a Schilling Get You a Hare-Cut?":

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/09/08/by-request-illinois-cd-17/

Bobby Schilling (R) - 41
Phil Hare (D) - 38
Roger Davis (G) - 4

Pretty much every pocket of Republican voters was cut out of this district in the 2001 redistricting.  This means Democrats are going for the Republican.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not really; the district went 51-48 for Kerry in 2004, so it's not exactly a Democratic stronghold.

[Mr.Phips]

Not really; the district went 51-48 for Kerry in 2004, so it's not exactly a Democratic stronghold.

Any district who would vote for John Kerry should be safe for Democrats. 

[Hash]

Here's another one, playfully titled "Will a Schilling Get You a Hare-Cut?":

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/09/08/by-request-illinois-cd-17/

Bobby Schilling (R) - 41
Phil Hare (D) - 38
Roger Davis (G) - 4

Is this a joke?

[Dgov]

Here's another one, playfully titled "Will a Schilling Get You a Hare-Cut?":

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/09/08/by-request-illinois-cd-17/

Bobby Schilling (R) - 41
Phil Hare (D) - 38
Roger Davis (G) - 4

Is this a joke?

Hare's Probably Leading by a little, but it's certainly close.  This isn't a Very Democratic District, only about D + 3, and Obama only won with 56% of the Vote here, despite being Obama's home state, and Kerry only won it by 3 points in 2004.  Republicans just haven't been contesting it until now.