Assuming these polls are right, it shows why the GOP is going to take the House, and take it by a substantial margin. If a district a Dem holds has a Dem PVI of less than +4% or so, the district is in play. That is true across the nation. There are relatively few exceptions (mostly a handful of DINO's).
And the Midwest looks like slaughter ally for the Dems in particular. Candy Crowley just read on her show a quote from a labor political operative in Ohio: "When we knocks on doors, what we hear is Glen Beck or Sean Hannity in the background."
In 2006 and 2008 Midwestern voters outside of the big cities really wanted an end to the internationalism as exemplified by the Iraq War, and a return to a focus on domestic issues without the wasteful spending typified by the "bridge to nowhere". The change they wanted was one of modest changes to steer the country back in the right direction. The Harding phrase "A return to normalcy" could well have applied.
The war part went OK, but the spending didn't match their expectations. What Midwesterners have seen is a dramatic new focus leading to major change on issues that didn't directly affect their pocketbook, but the pocketbook was where the effort was supposed to be.
One of the biggest concerns at the back of voters minds around me is how to end business as usual in politics. Too much of the sausagemaking protection of insiders kept appearing through the media (think of the Senate compromises with Nelson and Landrieu on health care) and that gave the impression that the "bridge to nowhere" was still the standard practice with the new administration and the Dem Congress. Obviously in IL this is amplified by the Blago trial, but even without that the national news would suffice.
The voters trusted the Dems to make these changes, but they haven't seen it. They may not trust the GOP, but many tell me that they hope divided government will find a better course than what they have seen lately.
