Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[Oakvale]

That's one hell of a crazy Gallup poll.

[J. J.]

That's one hell of a crazy Gallup poll.

Yep, and now you know why I don't particularly like Gallup.  Since 2008, they have been giving really strange numbers.

[Torie]

Do the moderators update the title of the thread, or is it up to the original poster? We have three Ras numbers in there and I think Gallup has changed...

I update it, adding the new poll on the left side of the headline, and dropping the oldest poll the farthest to the left when I run into space limitations. I will add the Gallup poll now.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Yep, and now you know why I don't particularly like Gallup.  Since 2008 2000, they have been giving really strange numbers.

Fixed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gallup

Registered Voters: 46-43 GOP
"High" Turnout: 53-40 GOP
"Low" Turnout: 56-38 GOP

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143363/GOP-Positioned-Among-Likely-Midterm-Voters.aspx

Well, those "low" turnout numbers will keep the hope that some have of another 1894 alive.

[The Vorlon]

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Hmmmmm.......

Gonna wanna look real close at these numbers.....

+18.......................... ?

The kindest thing I can think of saying is that this far out Gallup's likely voter model is... over sensitive.... and that it performs better as we get closer to the election....

(rubs eyes, checks his vision, takes drugs....)

[The Vorlon]

PSRA ‘jumps the shark’

In a recent poll for Newsweek, Princeton Survey Research Associates really outdoes itself.

Long know as one of the most left-leaning pollsters, in its 10/1/10 release, PSRA would have us believe that 96% of Democrat Registered Voters indicate that they are supporting or leaning to supporting the Democrat candidate for Congress, with only 2% supporting or leaning to support the Republican candidate!

In 2008 (according to Edison exit polls), 92% of Democrat voters supported the Democrat and 7% the Republican candidate.  That’s pretty much the same as 2006, when 93% supported the Democrat candidate (again, according to Edison).  In 2004, it was 90%.

Both for adults and registered voters, PSRA gives the Democrats an eight point lead, whereas Pollster’s aggregation of polls gives then a five point lead among adults, and a one point lead among ‘registered and likely voters.’

These ‘quirks’ in PSRA’s methodology probably explain, (at least in part) why it gives a generic Democrat advantage of 5 points while Opinion Dynamics and Rasmussen indicate a 6 point Republican advantage.

When checking RealClearPolitics generic ballot page, the last time any of the polls they use came up with a Democrat advantage of more than 2 points, was back in July!

PSRA....  almost as amusing as Zogby... not quite, but they are trying hard.

I got your email, I have made afew inquiries

[mypalfish]

Latest ABC/Wash Post poll out today has the GOP +6, which is down from the previous survey.  But the sampling seems to be odd.  There was a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters.  This October poll changed to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters.  Does anyone really think the Dems will have a 9pt turnout advantage?

[??????????]

Mydouchefish! Have you come back for your accolades?

[J. J.]

Yep, and now you know why I don't particularly like Gallup.  Since 2008 2000, they have been giving really strange numbers.

Fixed.

Actually in 2000, they were within 1-2 points.

Latest ABC/Wash Post poll out today has the GOP +6, which is down from the previous survey.  But the sampling seems to be odd.  There was a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters.  This October poll changed to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters.  Does anyone really think the Dems will have a 9pt turnout advantage?

Well, this year you are correct.  PPP seems to have the most pro-Republican sample.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Latest ABC/Wash Post poll out today has the GOP +6, which is down from the previous survey.  But the sampling seems to be odd.  There was a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters.  This October poll changed to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters.  Does anyone really think the Dems will have a 9pt turnout advantage?

Usually, when WaPo is involved, either by itself or in association with ABC, they numbers list heavily to the Democrats.

[CARLHAYDEN]

PSRA ‘jumps the shark’

In a recent poll for Newsweek, Princeton Survey Research Associates really outdoes itself.

Long know as one of the most left-leaning pollsters, in its 10/1/10 release, PSRA would have us believe that 96% of Democrat Registered Voters indicate that they are supporting or leaning to supporting the Democrat candidate for Congress, with only 2% supporting or leaning to support the Republican candidate!

In 2008 (according to Edison exit polls), 92% of Democrat voters supported the Democrat and 7% the Republican candidate.  That’s pretty much the same as 2006, when 93% supported the Democrat candidate (again, according to Edison).  In 2004, it was 90%.

Both for adults and registered voters, PSRA gives the Democrats an eight point lead, whereas Pollster’s aggregation of polls gives then a five point lead among adults, and a one point lead among ‘registered and likely voters.’

These ‘quirks’ in PSRA’s methodology probably explain, (at least in part) why it gives a generic Democrat advantage of 5 points while Opinion Dynamics and Rasmussen indicate a 6 point Republican advantage.

When checking RealClearPolitics generic ballot page, the last time any of the polls they use came up with a Democrat advantage of more than 2 points, was back in July!

PSRA....  almost as amusing as Zogby... not quite, but they are trying hard.

I got your email, I have made afew inquiries

Thanks.

I really find PSRA to be one of the most unreliable polling organizations.

If you check their numbers against others, they pretty consistently lean pretty heavily to the Democrats for years.

Interestingly enough, a couple of Democrat pollsters (Greenberg and PPP) seem pretty good, and even CBS is better than PSRA.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Yep, and now you know why I don't particularly like Gallup.  Since 2008 2000, they have been giving really strange numbers.

Fixed.

Actually in 2000, they were within 1-2 points.

At the end, yes. Their closing numbers are usually reasonable. But they had crazy numbers in October - like Gore up 12 points one day, and Bush +10 two days later.

[The Vorlon]

Yep, and now you know why I don't particularly like Gallup.  Since 2008 2000, they have been giving really strange numbers.

Fixed.

Actually in 2000, they were within 1-2 points.

At the end, yes. Their closing numbers are usually reasonable. But they had crazy numbers in October - like Gore up 12 points one day, and Bush +10 two days later.

Gallup have a very, very sensitive "likely voter" model.

It works pretty well with a week to go.

It doesn't work when it is more than a week to go.

We are more than a week to go => It does not work

QED

[Dgov]

A followup to the Gallup Generic Bombshell:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143468/Likely-Voters-Demographically-Typical-Skew-Conservative.aspx

Basically, the Gallup "Low" turnout model has the 2010 Electorate at 54% Conservative, 27% Moderate, and 18% Liberal.  Also comes down to 39% Republican, 18% Lean Republican, 3% Pure Independent, 9% Lean Democrat, and 30% Democrat, for a total 57-39 spread (which fits their 56-38 Generic Ballot edge).

Needless to say, if these numbers are anything close to the actual electorate, Democrats are in for probably the worst drubbing since 1894.  For Comparison, the numbers in 1994 were 40% Conservative, 48% Moderate, 12% Liberal, along with 38% Republican, 11% Lean Republican, 7% Pure Independent, 11% Lean Democrat, and 33% Democrat, for a total 49-44 spread, which matched their generic ballot edge of 3 points.

So compared to 1994, Conservatives have gained 14 Points, Liberals have gained 6 points, and Moderates have lost 21 points.  Republicans/leaning Republicans have gained 8 points, Democrats/leaning Democrats have lost 5 points, and pure Independents have lost 3 points.

As for the other demographics, not much is changed from 2006.  Older voters make up 3 points more of the electorate, and 34-49 year-old voters make up 3 points less.  Of note is the fact that the electorate is actually 5 points less white (79% compared to 84%) than 2006, but this is not significantly different from 2008's 76% White electorate, though it does suggest most of the drop is from Black voters rather than Hispanics.

[J. J.]

I'd be opening the champagne, if I believed Gallup. 

It will be a dry weekend.

[Beet]

I believe Gallup more than Rasmussen. They have more of a track record. Rasmussen is like the Fox News of polling. Some of their stuff is accurate to maintain their reputation, but they shouldn't be the go-to place.

As for Gallup, this number is horrific. The entire basis of the New Democratic party built up by Bill Clinton was moderates. That's now collapsed, with almost all the shift moving towards the conservative side. I don't think Obama can possibly recover from this. He's likely a one term President.

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Yeah but is there any reason why it would narrow significantly in the next few weeks?

[Dgov]

As for Gallup, this number is horrific. The entire basis of the New Democratic party built up by Bill Clinton was moderates. That's now collapsed, with almost all the shift moving towards the conservative side. I don't think Obama can possibly recover from this. He's likely a one term President.

Remember, this is their low-turnout model.  I.e., this is as bad as it could possibly get (which isn't saying much though).  The US isn't actually 54% Conservative (though I'd like it to be), that's just the turnout model they're using.  The Republicans can still totally F this up (which they've shown themselves very capable of doing), but Obama is going to have to really work for his re-election.  If you notice on the Gallup page, between 1994 and 1998 the percentage of Conservatives grew from 40 to 46, yet the number of self-described Republicans actually fell from 49 to 45, as Clinton successfully courted the middle.

However, the Clinton "New Democrats" were basically snuffed out in 2008 when Liberals calculated that they didn't really need them anymore.  It's just a matter of getting them back.

[Dgov]

Actually, if you compare this Gallup poll with their earlier, registered-voter one, the GOP could be on parity with Hispanic voters.  They were down 13 points with registered Hispanics, and Gallup's low turnout model has the GOP 10 points above the registered voter levels.  Combine that with Liberal Hispanics being less likely than most to vote in the midterms, and you might see an even or better

This is all speculation of course.  I really wish Gallup would release their generic ballot crosstabs like they do for presidential approval ratings.

[The Vorlon]

Yeah but is there any reason why it would narrow significantly in the next few weeks?

The die is more or less cast.

I expect the RV to LV gap to tone down to about 7 or 8 points, a slight drift back, but not a sea change.

[mypalfish]

Rasmussen out today showing the GOP +8 in the generic ballot (47-39), which is a 5 pt gain since last week.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen out today showing the GOP +8 in the generic ballot (47-39), which is a 5 pt gain since last week.

Last weeks might have been an outlier.

I think it will be a health GOP year, but not the 70+ seats some are suggesting.

Democrats, just pull the blade away from your wrists. 

[cowboy300]

Gallup is now out.  Very similar numbers to last week.  It is at political wire but I don't have the access for links yet.  High turnout is 53%-41% for Republicans while low turnout is 56% to 39% for Republicans.

[Dgov]

Gallup is now out.  Very similar numbers to last week.  It is at political wire but I don't have the access for links yet.  High turnout is 53%-41% for Republicans while low turnout is 56% to 39% for Republicans.

Basically identical, Democrats are up a point in all categories, and Republicans are up a point in registered voters.

[Sam Spade]

An internal reading of these types of polls has suggested for a while that in the final instance, the generic ballot should be about +5-8% GOP, unless there are great turnout discrepancies (which is what, in part, is driving my House predictions for a while)