Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[CARLHAYDEN]

Warning!

There is a new Roper poll coming out which (based on initial limited data) appears to be wildly off!

So, when it appears, please be skeptical.

[memphis]

ag, doesn't inflation hit the middle class the hardest?

The poor aren't hit the hardest because they generally live paycheck to paycheck - they have little savings. And during inflation, wages usually rise just as fast as prices. So the net effect on the poor would be nil.

The wealthy, of course, have assets - homes, stocks, land - that all rise in value with inflation. That protects them.

The middle class though, have cash savings which can easily be wiped out by inflation if not invested. Isn't this what happened during hyperinflation in Germany (of course they're not the same thing, but still)?

Also,doesn't inflation hurt creditors at the expense of debtors? The reason being that debt is not indexed to inflation, so over time, it decreases the debt load, where deflation increases it. This is why poor farmers in the American midwest advocated inflationary (or at least anti-deflationary) policies in the late 19th century.

Hardly anybody has substantial cash lying around in the bank, and most people are a paycheck or two away from serious trouble. Short of the crazy, runaway inflation in unstable nations, the worst inflation does to most people is the "OMGZ, I remember when five cents was a lot of money" crap I hear from my dad. 

[J. J.]

ag, doesn't inflation hit the middle class the hardest?

The poor aren't hit the hardest because they generally live paycheck to paycheck - they have little savings. And during inflation, wages usually rise just as fast as prices. So the net effect on the poor would be nil.

The wealthy, of course, have assets - homes, stocks, land - that all rise in value with inflation. That protects them.

The middle class though, have cash savings which can easily be wiped out by inflation if not invested. Isn't this what happened during hyperinflation in Germany (of course they're not the same thing, but still)?

Also,doesn't inflation hurt creditors at the expense of debtors? The reason being that debt is not indexed to inflation, so over time, it decreases the debt load, where deflation increases it. This is why poor farmers in the American midwest advocated inflationary (or at least anti-deflationary) policies in the late 19th century.

Hardly anybody has substantial cash lying around in the bank, and most people are a paycheck or two away from serious trouble. Short of the crazy, runaway inflation in unstable nations, the worst inflation does to most people is the "OMGZ, I remember when five cents was a lot of money" crap I hear from my dad. 

Memphis, who was president during our last inflationary period and what happened to him?

[Torie]

RCP has an article going over a bunch of polls, generic and race specific. The shocker was that the GOP challenger was ahead by 4-5 points in MI-9.  Michigan seems to be joining Ohio as a blowout state.

[Dan the Roman]

RCP has an article going over a bunch of polls, generic and race specific. The shocker was that the GOP challenger was ahead by 4-5 points in MI-9.  Michigan seems to be joining Ohio as a blowout state.

Peters barely won in a 2008 wave in which he underperformed Obama by about 7% against a very weak incumbent and was on everyone's endangered list from that moment onwards. Its an overwhelmingly Republican area on the local level, and in that respect looks a lot like PA-06 or PA-12 for the GOP, ie. fools gold because the PVI is highly misleading. It was quite obviously a top fifteen target along with MI-7 even in a neutral year, and it falling is like hearing that AZ-05 is. Bad news, but far less scary than the CA-20 poll, or the MA-10 primary numbers. Now those point more towards a 50+ seat loss.

[You kip if you want to...]

Gallup
9/13-19/10; 2,925 registered voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Democrat, 45% Republican


Rasmussen
9/13-19/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 38% Democrat

[memphis]

Memphis, who was president during our last inflationary period and what happened to him?

yeah, inflation is like being in a meat grinder.  it makes almost everyone very angry and feel poorer.  I think Americans would explode is they had to endur a couple of years of 10% inflation.

Inflation is a meat grinder for large sums of money in the bank. Something most people don't have. There is a psychological OMGZ I remember when 5 cents was a a lot of money effect that annoys people (and perceptions are important) but it doesn't really make any practical difference.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Gallup
9/13-19/10; 2,925 registered voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Democrat, 45% Republican


Rasmussen
9/13-19/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 38% Democrat

Hmm, interesting contrast we have here.  Surprised to see the Dems leading on the Gallup ballot though.

[Gravis Marketing]

Further data from Rasmussen's sample: Palin's fav/unfav numbers are 48/49 and health care's numbers are 33/56 support/oppose. Whether or not that reflects the electorate is debatable since this is quite a conservative slice of America; it's interesting to think of the Republican ballot number tracking exactly with Palin's favorables.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Gallup
9/13-19/10; 2,925 registered voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Democrat, 45% Republican


Rasmussen
9/13-19/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 38% Democrat

Hmm, interesting contrast we have here.  Surprised to see the Dems leading on the Gallup ballot though.

Gallup has had some really weird swings in its surveys the past few weeks.

Expect the next Gallup poll to show the Republicans up several points, given the pendulum trend of Gallup.

[J. J.]

Memphis, who was president during our last inflationary period and what happened to him?

yeah, inflation is like being in a meat grinder.  it makes almost everyone very angry and feel poorer.  I think Americans would explode is they had to endur a couple of years of 10% inflation.

Inflation is a meat grinder for large sums of money in the bank. Something most people don't have. There is a psychological OMGZ I remember when 5 cents was a a lot of money effect that annoys people (and perceptions are important) but it doesn't really make any practical difference.

Yes it does, if you are trying to save money or are on a fixed income.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen, +10 GOP 48/38.

[Dgov]

Not Technically a Generic Ballot, but the parties have similar favorable rankings among registered voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143213/Republican-Democratic-Party-Favorability-Identical.aspx

Which is terrible for the Democrats, as their 53% disapproval rating is the highest it's ever been by 6-7 points, and for all their talk about the Tea party making the GOP unelectable, the party has gained about 10 approval points since they first emerged in early 2009.

[Torie]

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll has the GOP up by 9% (53%-44%).

[J. J.]

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll has the GOP up by 9% (53%-44%).

Generally an 8-12 point range across polls.

[The Vorlon]

Gallup
9/13-19/10; 2,925 registered voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Democrat, 45% Republican


Rasmussen
9/13-19/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 38% Democrat

Hmm, interesting contrast we have here.  Surprised to see the Dems leading on the Gallup ballot though.

Let's put "tied" into perspective.

In 1994 Gallup had the "generic ballot" tied, and we all know how that turned out.

The AVERAGE of the last 4 mid term elections, the Gallup RV generic ballot has under-polled the GOP by 7+ %

Tied in RVs is a big night for the GOP, anything above that is really putting a hurt on the Dems.

[Torie]

New Ras generic poll: +6%R (46-40).

[Lief]

The generic ballot has tightened considerably in the last month: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.php

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

New Ras generic poll: +6%R (46-40).

+6 from Ras is great news.

[J. J.]

New Ras generic poll: +6%R (46-40).

It might be an outlier.  That is highest D number since June 2009.  It was a 2 point increase as well.

[Vepres]

The generic ballot has tightened considerably in the last month: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.php

Interesting, though it was clear a GOP lead as high as it was in the late-summer was not going to last. Still, as Vorlon pointed out, if the Republicans are ahead, it's a bad night for Democrats.

[The Vorlon]

The generic ballot has tightened considerably in the last month: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.php

Interesting, though it was clear a GOP lead as high as it was in the late-summer was not going to last. Still, as Vorlon pointed out, if the Republicans are ahead, it's a bad night for Democrats.

Gallup will shift to a likely voter model next week, and assuming Gallup uses their standard model, current data suggest a gap of about 9 points between RV and LVs in the Gallup universe.

UPDATE:

Gallup's website suggest a 10%+ GOP lead using "likely Voters"

Additionally, preliminary modeling of the likely electorate using Gallup’s traditional likely voter questions (more on this next week) suggests that if current patterns persist, Republicans could have a double-digit lead in the national House vote on Election Day, which would translate into Republicans gaining well above the number of seats necessary to control the House.

http://2010central.gallup.com/2010/09/story-of-election-disproportionate.html

It is "highly" unlikely that kind of enthusiasm gap will last till election day, I would expect it to narrow to the more normal midterm  6% (ish) gap between RVs and LVs by election day

[J. J.]

Vorlon, you are calling for a sixty seat Republican gain in the House?

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, you are calling for a sixty seat Republican gain in the House?

"calling for" would imply advocacy for that outcome, and I don't actually trust the GOP enough to want them to have that many seats.  

There are about 35 Dem seats that are basically "gone", baring some major shift the race is over.  There are another 35 or so where it is very very close, more or less toss-ups  I expect the GOP to win about 3/4s of them or so.  The Dems will likely win back LA2, HI1, and Delaware AL, ~~maybe~~ Illinois 10, so yes 60 seats +/- is the middle of the range.

There are dozens of seats, mainly in the Midwest, that are all very close, so it's really hard to get an exact read right now.  A shift or even 2 or 3 points Nationally changes a couple dozen seats in the house.  It's actually quite exciting.  Depending on the turnout model, GOP gains could be anywhere from 28 to about 105 seats at the extreme ends of the spectrum.

In politics, follow the money - The GOP is shifting money from the mid-west to the coasts.  You play offense in the other guys marginals, and if the marginals are New York, California, Washington, the GOP is looking at 60 (ish) seats.

[Sam Spade]

Ok, so which 35 seats to you are "gone" for the Dems?