Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R (user search)
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  Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R (search mode)
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Author Topic: Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R  (Read 25141 times)
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« on: September 10, 2010, 03:24:32 PM »

You ever imagine what an elephant raping a donkey would look like? The elephant would probably crush the donkey under its weight, leaving only a mangled corpse and some guts on the elephants feet.

See sig.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2010, 10:18:37 AM »

Mydouchefish! Have you come back for your accolades?
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2010, 01:44:34 PM »

Gop wins 100 seats in the house.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2010, 01:18:35 PM »

Actually it may help the Dems that the election is Tuesday. Their numbers keep getting worse, lol.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2010, 10:53:35 PM »

Wow, just wow.  I had about GOP 10-12% in the back of my mind, when I did my projections, trying to fit local poll stuff within it, and if it did not, ask why, not the 15% spread that Gallup now uses, having made up its mind about the turnout (and 45% is still amazingly high), rather than bifurcate, and leave it at that. If the 15% margin really happens, GOP +60 seats is a floor. The math otherwise just doesn't work, particularly if minority turnout is down in some places.

In 1994, the GOP won with a 7% margin. In 2008, the Dems won by a 10.5%, so if the Dems now lose by 15%, that is a 24.5% swing, sinking all those Dems who won last time by less than 63% or so in 2008, as a starting point. Obviously that won't happen, but it is not as if in safe GOP seats, the GOP will run up massive margins of wasted votes. If that were the case, state races would be in the bag which are not.

It's a 25.5% swing and your observation makes more sense than you think it does.

Anyway, Gallup has been wrong in the past, so we'll see.  However, I may really give the 70-seat prediction a call now, if anything b/c it might be the most likely answer.

It'll probably be around 100 seats.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2010, 10:57:07 PM »

BTW, I am sticking with my 63 seat net gain for the moment. Smiley

I respect your caution but I fear you underestimate how pissed folks are.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2010, 11:09:29 PM »

BTW, I am sticking with my 63 seat net gain for the moment. Smiley

I respect your caution but I fear you underestimate how pissed folks are.

I was deemed a GOP hack on testosterone, when I put up 50-60 a month or more ago, and the GOP would take the House 3 months ago. How things change. Smiley  (Yes, most are too polite to say such things to me, but I am a sensitive chap, and just know Tongue.)

Yes, I don't really believe the margin for starters. It just does not show up in enough local polls. Unless of course, the Dems are taking yet another hit in the last few days. I guess that is possible.

I personally believe that the great majority of Dems who are tied or within the MOE are going to lose, guess we don't have much longer to wait and find out.
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