House seat marginals in a GOP wave

[Torie]

I come up with a 48 seats that I am pretty confident the GOP would gain (well maybe 46 with two GOP losses), in a wave of the size it looks like is now a 50-50 proposition, extrapolating forward a bit I admit, done on the back of an envelop as a first crude cut.

And I have seats that I am pretty confident the Dems will hold given the posited wave size. So it is the seats below going up from +46 for the GOP (I have 48 more likely GOP pickups than anyone on the list below in other words) that I am having some trouble ranking. What seats do you think would flip with a GOP gain of 40? 45? How about 50? 55?, 60?, 65? ... . Keep going up with the total gain number until they all flip on the list below to the GOP. Thanks for playing, for those that are willing to indulge me here. Yes, some are a bit out there, but if I cut the list, I may miss an interesting comment. So here it is:

1     ID-1    Walter Minnick
2     AZ-1    Ann Kirkpatrick
3     AZ-8    Gabrielle Giffords (poor GOP opponent)
4     MO-4 Ike Skelton
5     AZ-5    Harry Mitchell
6     KY-6    Ben Chandler
7    CO-3    John Salazar
8    IN-2    Joe Donnelly
9    NC-11 Heath Shuler
10 OH-13 Betty Sutton
11 TX-23    Ciro Rodriguez
12 WI-8    Steve Kagen
13 CA-18    Dennis Cardoza
14 CA-47    Loretta Sánchez
16 WA-2    Rick Larsen
17 NY-20    Scott Murphy
18 NY-23    Bill Owens
19 NY-19    John Hall
20 VA-11    Gerald Connolly
21 FL-22    Ron Klein
22 NM-1    Martin Heinrich
23 OR-5    Kurt Schrader
24 PA-17    Tim Holden
25 PA-4    Jason Altmire
26 WV-3    Nick Rahall
27 MI-9    Gary Peters
28 NY-25    Dan Maffei
29 UT-2    Matheson
30 AR-4    Mike Ross
31 CT-5    Christopher Murphy
32 IL-8     Melissa Bean
33 MN-1    Tim Walz
34 MS-4    Taylor
35 NC-2    Etheridge
36 NC-7    Mike McIntyre
37 OK-2    Boren
38 WI-3    Ron Kind
39 GA-12    John Barrow
40 IL-17    Phil Hare

Yes, I need to look at the money, and candidate quality on the above of course. And then there are the Dems who fit the district, and have been around and popular, in districts that don't fit Obama. Those can be tough.
 

[You kip if you want to...]

Of course, would seats in NY like Murphy's and Owen's go down even with the NY GOP is such a failure of a state and 3 candidates (Cuomo, Schumer, Gillibrand) likely to win landslides?

[Eraserhead]

Murphy and Hall aren't going to lose this year. Well, that's my take from the ground floor anyway.

[bgwah]

WA-2 will be close... I can see Koster getting at least 48% or so. It will be an uphill battle to 50% but if he gets a big enough victory in Snohomish County, it might happen.

[Sam Spade]

What are the 48 that you posit above these?

[Torie]

I was afraid you would ask that, which might open me up to embarrassment vis a vis this list, that I was hoping to forestall. Anyway, the list of "safe" GOP pickups in a wave of the size I am assuming are:

1   LA-3    OPEN (Melancon)
2   TN-6    OPEN (Gordon)
3   NY-29    OPEN
4   AR-2    OPEN (Snyder)
5   MD-1    Frank Kratovil
6   MS-1    Travis Childers
7   IN-8            OPEN (Ellsworth)
8   KS-3    OPEN (Moore)
9   ND-AL    Earl Pomeroy
10   NM-2    Harry Teague
11   TN-8    OPEN (Tanner)
12   TX-17    Chet Edwards
13   AL-2    Bobby Bright
14   CO-4    Betsy Markey
15   SD-AL    Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
16   AR-1    OPEN (Berry)
17   IN-9       Baron Hill
18   NH-1    Carol Shea-Porter
19   NH-2    OPEN (Hodes)
20   OH-1    Steve Driehaus
21   OH-15    Mary Jo Kilroy
22   VA-5    Tom Perriello
23   WV-1    Alan B. Mollohan
24   FL-24    Suzanne Kosmas
25   MI-7    Mark Schauer
26   NV-3    Dina Titus
27   OH-16    John Boccieri
28   PA-7    OPEN (Sestak)
29   SC-5    John Spratt
30   VA-2    Glenn Nye
31   WA-3    OPEN (Baird)
32   WI-7    OPEN (Obey)
33   FL-2            Allen Boyd
34   FL-8      Alan Grayson
35   IL-11    Debbie Halvorson
36   IL-14    Bill Foster
37   MI-1    OPEN (Stupak)
38   NC-8    Larry Kissell
39   NY-24    Michael Arcuri
40   PA-11    Paul Kanjorski
41   VA-9    Rick Boucher
42   OH-18    Zack Space
43   PA-10    Chris Carney
44   PA-3    Kathy Dahlkemper
45   PA-8    Patrick Murphy
46   GA-8    Jim Marshall
47   CA-11    Jerry McNerney
48   IA-3            Leonard Boswell

[DrScholl]

If a wave of over 50, at least 20 of these would flip. CA-47 would stay Democratic, even in a wave as there have been big shifts toward Democrats in the district. MS-4 didn't flip in 1994 and Gene Taylor won with over 60%, so I don't think even a wave could oust Taylor, he's pretty hard worker for the district.

[Torie]

WA-2 will be close... I can see Koster getting at least 48% or so. It will be an uphill battle to 50% but if he gets a big enough victory in Snohomish County, it might happen.

How many seats nationally does the GOP need to get, before you see Larsen going down?

That is the nature of the exercise here. Heck, Bgwah, you might be putting up your numbers, assuming the GOP picks up 30 seats. I am trying to wash away the macro here in other words.

[bgwah]

WA-2 will be close... I can see Koster getting at least 48% or so. It will be an uphill battle to 50% but if he gets a big enough victory in Snohomish County, it might happen.

How many seats nationally does the GOP need to get, before you see Larsen going down?

That is the nature of the exercise here. Heck, Bgwah, you might be putting up your numbers, assuming the GOP picks up 30 seats. I am trying to wash away the macro here in other words.

I'm not familiar enough with those other races to give an exact number... I would imagine the GOP would have already won the House by the time they got to Larsen. Maybe...

[nhmagic]

Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all fall this year.  They also have to go up against immigration and an impending Brewer landslide.  You also forget that these districts are very conservative (irregardless of R PVI-especially in Giffords case).

As for Giffords having a poor opponent - Jesse Kelly is not a poor opponent.  He is a pretty good speaker and will be a decent fundraiser now that Paton isn't sucking up the money.  He is not a "one-issue candidate" either as Giffords campaign is trying to say.  Paton from the beginning told potential donors to hold off and the NRCC choked off some of Kelly's donors for Paton once he entered the race.   

[Sam Spade]

You want my list of DEM seats most likely to flip (excluding my present rankings somewhat - based on gut)?

1. TN-6*
2. AR-2*
3. NY-29*
4. LA-3*
5. KS-3*
6. IN-8*
7. VA-5
8. MD-1
9. NM-2
10. CO-4
11. MS-1
12. WA-3*
13. AR-1*
14. NY-24
15. OH-1
16. OH-16
17. OH-15
18. TN-8*
19. MI-1*
20. PA-7*
21. NH-2*
22. MI-7
23. PA-3
24. FL-24
25. VA-2
26. FL-2
27. TX-17
28. ND-AL
29. PA-11
30. AL-2
31. GA-8
32. NC-8
33. AZ-8
34. FL-8
35. WI-7*
36. WV-1*
37. ID-1
38. IL-11
39. NV-3
40. IA-3
41. SD-AL
42. SC-5
43. IN-9
44. AZ-5
45. AZ-1
46. NY-19
47. PA-8
48. IL-14
49. PA-10
50. TX-23
51. FL-22
52. CA-11
53. IN-2
54. NM-1
55. OR-5
56. NJ-3
57. NY-1
58. MO-4
59. TN-4
60. VA-9
61. KY-6
62. OH-18
63. OH-13
64. CO-3
65. NY-13
66. WI-8
67. VA-11
68. MA-10*
69. NY-20
70. WA-2
71. NY-23
72. PA-4
73. NC-11
74. PA-17
75. PA-12
76. MI-9
77. CT-4
78. IL-8
79. UT-2
80. AR-4
81. GA-2
82. IL-17
83. CT-5
84. WI-3
85. CA-47
86. CO-7
87. KY-3
88. OH-6
89. WV-3
90. MS-4
91. NC-7
92. NY-25
93. MN-1
94. NC-2
95. OK-2
96. GA-12
97. RI-1*
98. CA-18
99. MO-3
100. IA-02 (just to prove my point  )

[The Vorlon]

Virginia - 5th district
Alabama - 2d district
Maryland - 1st district
Ohio - 15th district
Connecticut - 4th district
Idaho - 1st district
Michigan - 7th district
Pennsylvania - 3d district
Pennsylvania - 11th district
Alabama - 5th district
Florida - 8th district
New jersey - 3d district
Virginia - 2d district
Ohio - 1st district
Nevada - 3d district
New Hampshire - 1st district
New York - 29th district
Texas - 17th district
New York - 24th district
Wisconsin - 8th district
Florida - 22d district
Maine - 1st district
Arizona - 5th district
Michigan - 9th district
California - 11th district
Ohio - 16th district
Mississippi - 1st district
North Carolina - 8th district
New Mexico - 1st district
Pennsylvania - 4th district
Virginia - 11th district
New Mexico - 2d district
Arizona - 8th district
Colorado - 4th district
Pennsylvania - 10th district
Texas - 23d district
Iowa - 3d district
Georgia - 8th district
New York - 19th district
New Hampshire - 2d district
Pennsylvania - 8th district
Illinois - 14th district
Connecticut - 5th district
Pennsylvania - 12th district
New York - 25th district
Florida - 24th district
Oregon - 5th district
New York - 1st district
Arizona - 1st district
Kansas - 3d district
Ohio - 10th district
Kentucky - 3d district
Pennsylvania - 7th district
Iowa - 2d district
Ohio - 18th district

[Lunar]

Murphy and Hall aren't going to lose this year. Well, that's my take from the ground floor anyway.

I think Murphy's in for a tough race, and Hall is in for a very tough race that will be very closely decided.

Eh, glancing at Torie's list, you see some Republicans that don't even have $5k in the bank, like against Boren

[Torie]

Sam, looking at your list, in a mega wave but short of a tsunami (and the odds are close to 40% of that now), here is where I put the break point on your list:

63. OH-13 Falls to GOP
64. CO-3   Dem Hold

Odd I don't see Ciro on your list. You think he is safe eh?

[Holmes]

You must be really obsessed with Ciro Rodriguez, Torie. You talk about him all the time.

[Torie]

You must be really obsessed with Ciro Rodriguez, Torie. You talk about him all the time.

I have a particular interest in politics in the San Antonio area for some reason. It was probably due to all that Bonilla action, and re-redistricting three times,  including a court battle. It is an interesting district, because about 25% of it is hyper GOP Anglo territory in Bexar County. And then the internal poll came out showing Ciro in trouble, and Cuellar hates him, and so on.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, looking at your list, in a mega wave but short of a tsunami (and the odds are close to 40% of that now), here is where I put the break point on your list:

63. OH-13 Falls to GOP
64. CO-3   Dem Hold

Odd I don't see Ciro on your list. You think he is safe eh?

Ciro is at #50.  Should maybe be a little higher, as I could see him falling while the GOP doesn't gain the House.  Such things can often occur in really partisan CDs like that one where turnout could be a real problem.

Although I'm pretending like these are "exact" rankings, I wouldn't read them as such.  If the GOP gets around 30, you should act like the wave (small one at that point) could possibly turn seats 31-60.  If the GOP gets around 50, you should act like the wave (medium wave) could possibly turn seats 51-90.  If the GOP gets around 70, you should act like the wave (strong wave) could possibly turn seats 71-110.

Of course, that assumes that a wave occurs, which is not certain yet.

[Torie]

I looked, and looked, and did not see TX-23 on your list Sam, but yes it is there, and I have not even had a toke yet. Disturbing ...

Sure it is all guesswork, but I want to work up a gut list. Some have the right stuff, and some do not. And some with the right stuff are going down, and some with the wrong stuff will survive. And we need to see the new Dem strategy now, and there will be a new one, since the old ones have all belly flopped. Part of the new strategy I assume is for Obama to go invisible, and say very little remotely controversial. We shall see. I want to see what the last card in the Dem deck is.

[Sam Spade]

Just looking back a little bit...  And yes, I will get to my predictions in due time.  This was from August 30, 2010 though...

You want my list of DEM seats most likely to flip (excluding my present rankings somewhat - based on gut)?

1. TN-6* GOP
2. AR-2* GOP
3. NY-29* GOP
4. LA-3* GOP
5. KS-3* GOP
6. IN-8* GOP
7. VA-5 GOP
8. MD-1 GOP
9. NM-2 GOP
10. CO-4 GOP
11. MS-1 GOP
12. WA-3* GOP
13. AR-1* GOP
14. NY-24 GOP
15. OH-1 GOP
16. OH-16 GOP
17. OH-15 GOP
18. TN-8* GOP
19. MI-1* GOP
20. PA-7* GOP
21. NH-2* GOP
22. MI-7 GOP
23. PA-3 GOP
24. FL-24 GOP
25. VA-2 GOP
26. FL-2 GOP
27. TX-17 GOP
28. ND-AL GOP
29. PA-11 GOP
30. AL-2 GOP
31. GA-8 GOP
32. NC-8
33. AZ-8
34. FL-8 GOP
35. WI-7* GOP
36. WV-1* GOP
37. ID-1 GOP
38. IL-11 GOP
39. NV-3 GOP
40. IA-3
41. SD-AL GOP
42. SC-5 GOP
43. IN-9 GOP
44. AZ-5 GOP
45. AZ-1 GOP
46. NY-19 GOP
47. PA-8 GOP
48. IL-14 GOP
49. PA-10 GOP
50. TX-23 GOP
51. FL-22 GOP
52. CA-11
53. IN-2
54. NM-1
55. OR-5
56. NJ-3 GOP
57. NY-1 GOP???
58. MO-4 GOP
59. TN-4 GOP
60. VA-9 GOP
61. KY-6
62. OH-18 GOP
63. OH-13
64. CO-3 GOP
65. NY-13 GOP
66. WI-8 GOP
67. VA-11
68. MA-10*
69. NY-20 GOP
70. WA-2
71. NY-23
72. PA-4
73. NC-11
74. PA-17
75. PA-12
76. MI-9
77. CT-4
78. IL-8 GOP
79. UT-2
80. AR-4
81. GA-2
82. IL-17 GOP
83. CT-5
84. WI-3
85. CA-47
86. CO-7
87. KY-3
88. OH-6 GOP
89. WV-3
90. MS-4 GOP
91. NC-7
92. NY-25 GOP???
93. MN-1
94. NC-2 GOP
95. OK-2
96. GA-12
97. RI-1*
98. CA-18
99. MO-3
100. IA-02 (just to prove my point  )

Top 25 - All 25 fell
Top 50 - 47/50 fell
Top 75 - 10 more races
Top 100 - 7 more races

Only seat that missed my eye was TX-27, but I did move it up to Lean D later on when events made it clear that the race was competitive.

Actually, looking at the list again, somehow I missed placing NH-1 on the list, though it would have obviously been top 50 at this point.  Ugh. 

My brain had NY-13 ranked up higher here, yet I didn't call it.  Clearly saw the danger in IL-8 though.