The Official 'Make a 2012 Prediction' Thread

[Yelnoc]

The likelihood of unemployment dropping to 5% in 2 years is pretty slim indeed.

And the demographics pretty much rule out anything like the landslide you suggest.

...also Obama lost SC by 10...and Arkansas by 20... he'd win SC before AR.

The states Obama can never win imho
- Nebraska, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah

Would need a miracle
- Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, Mississippi, the Dakotas

Everything would need to be in place
- Georgia, Louisiana, Montana

Louisiana would need a miracle but Montana almost went to him in 2008.

[tmthforu94]

I would also put Pennsylvania voting for the Republican before I'd put Michigan or Oregon.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The likelihood of unemployment dropping to 5% in 2 years is pretty slim indeed.

And the demographics pretty much rule out anything like the landslide you suggest.

...also Obama lost SC by 10...and Arkansas by 20... he'd win SC before AR.

The states Obama can never win imho
- Nebraska, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah

Would need a miracle
- Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, Mississippi, the Dakotas

Everything would need to be in place
- Georgia, Louisiana, Montana

I'd add West Virginia to "never win" category.

[Penelope]

The likelihood of unemployment dropping to 5% in 2 years is pretty slim indeed.

And the demographics pretty much rule out anything like the landslide you suggest.

...also Obama lost SC by 10...and Arkansas by 20... he'd win SC before AR.

The states Obama can never win imho
- Nebraska, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah

Would need a miracle
- Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, Mississippi, the Dakotas

Everything would need to be in place
- Georgia, Louisiana, Montana

I'd add West Virginia to "never win" category.

Nah, I think he could still win West Virginia if everything is in place.

[pbrower2a]

Here's how Nebraska goes:

NE-02 (Greater Omaha). Votes about like Indiana. Obama wins this district in 2012 if he has a re-election similar to 2008. He won NE-02.

NE-01(eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha, including Lincoln). Votes about like Texas. Obama wins this district with about a 420-455 EV victory and probably 55% of the vote, with Texas probably the difference between  420 and 455 electoral votes.

NE-AL (entire state, 2 EV allocated). Votes like Kansas.  Obama wins these two electoral votes if he has 480 or so electoral votes and about 59% of the popular vote. The GOP has probably nominated someone who excites only the Lunatic Fringe of the Right.

NE-03. (central and western Nebraska, including Grand Island and Scottsbluff). Votes like Wyoming. Quite possibly the last electoral vote that Obama could imaginably win. This is one of the most conservative districts in America, and President Obama has a better chance of winning Utah than this district. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The likelihood of unemployment dropping to 5% in 2 years is pretty slim indeed.

And the demographics pretty much rule out anything like the landslide you suggest.

...also Obama lost SC by 10...and Arkansas by 20... he'd win SC before AR.

The states Obama can never win imho
- Nebraska, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah

Would need a miracle
- Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, Mississippi, the Dakotas, Louisiana, West Virginia

Everything would need to be in place
- Georgia,  Montana

Louisiana would need a miracle but Montana almost went to him in 2008.

I was thinking about that, yep, moving Louisiana into the miracle list.

I think Montana was part of the perfect storm, like Georgia. There are a lot people in those states who are prepared to vote for him... but especially in MT, the likelihood has slipped.

And also adding West Virginia into the miracle list... I don't think it's impossible, but if he can win KY or TN, then he could win WV too.

[Bull Moose Base]

GOP primary will have three lasting competitors: Romney, Palin and an Indianan (pence if Daniels doesn't run).  The Indianan will be boosted by Huckabee's endorsement and stumping.  The media will give Palin a big push.  The nomination won't be settled until May or June.  Once Obama has an opponent to focus on his approvals will gradually rise.  The GOP will play very dirty.  The Democratic base won't stay home like2010. The race will poll competitively until the final week.  Al Qaeda will try to do something to boost the Republican nominee.  Hopefully some useless video and no bloodshed.  Obama's electoral success will be heavily influenced by economic picture in the final 3-5 months before Election Day.

[Skill and Chance]

Two Scenarios that I think are the most likely outcomes.  I can't decide yet on which one would be more likely than the other, but I definitely do not think 2012 will be a close election:

1. Morning in America, Part II

A true V-shaped recovery starting in 2011.

Unemployment falls to under 7% with "a million new jobs a month" from the fall of 2011 onwards.

Obama/Biden 60.1%
Gingrich/Barbour 38.7%

2. Double-Dip Recession

GDP begins declining again in early 2011, and unemployment rises to over 12%.  There is no sign of improvement by election day and only a hint of stabilization.

Romney/Pawlenty 58.9%
Obama/Biden        40.4%