PA-10: Sketchy polling outfit has Marino up big

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://municipoll.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/docs/PA_CD_10_Survey.24594733.pdf

Tom Marino (R) - 49
Chris Carney (D) - 36

This place apparently has done exactly one other poll -- a poll of a theoretical Democratic primary for mayor of Philadelphia.

[Sam Spade]

If a wave occurs, this seat is one of the top ones to watch about falling regardless of strength of candidate, money or whatever.  Doesn't make the poll worth anything, of course.

[Torie]

If a wave occurs, this seat is one of the top ones to watch about falling regardless of strength of candidate, money or whatever.  Doesn't make the poll worth anything, of course.

65.  69 granted would have a nice symbolic value I admit.

[Niemeyerite]

There was another poll that showed marino up BIG. is carney in a bad (terrible) shape for reelection?

[Beet]

A PVI R+17 district or somesuch that Carney picked up in the '06 wave only because his opponent was caught in a bad scandal.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

R+8. Bush got 60% there in 2004. I imagine Corbett and Toomey will clean up there. Carney's problem isn't Marino, he's kind of a joke candidate, but a joke can win in this environment.

If Carney and Kanjorski both lose, it will pose an interesting problem for Republicans: how to draw three Republican seats in NE PA? Making PA-10 any less Republican would probably endanger it, given the aforementioned joke status of Marino. But PA-11 as it is now would not be that favorable to Barletta when he faces a Democrat that's not Kanjo.

[Mr.Phips]

R+8. Bush got 60% there in 2004. I imagine Corbett and Toomey will clean up there. Carney's problem isn't Marino, he's kind of a joke candidate, but a joke can win in this environment.

If Carney and Kanjorski both lose, it will pose an interesting problem for Republicans: how to draw three Republican seats in NE PA? Making PA-10 any less Republican would probably endanger it, given the aforementioned joke status of Marino. But PA-11 as it is now would not be that favorable to Barletta when he faces a Democrat that's not Kanjo.

Its not possible.  As it is, PA-11 would probably throw Barletta out in 2012 on Obama's coattails against a better candidate(which there are plenty in this area) even in a slightly less Democratic district.  If they added Scranton back to PA-10, that just makes that district highly likely to be a Democratic pickup, especially with someone as weak as Marino.  

The smart thing for Republicans to do would probably be to just throw Marino under the bus and create a safe seat for Barletta, rather than risking giving Democrats two pickups in 2012.  

If Republicans pick up all of these seats that we think they are, they are not going to be able to protect all of them in redistricting.  They are going to have to start throwing their own under the bus in redistricting because there simply wont be any more Democrats left to endanger.  

If Republicans try to shore up all of these new incumbents, they are going to likely set up several new seats that would likely go Democratic in 2012 as the turnout dynamic goes back to normal. 

Ohio and Pennslyvania are two states where this could easily happen.

In Ohio, Republicans cant make OH-01 or OH-15 any safer for Republicans unless they want to make Jean Schmidt and Pat Tiberi(especially) that much more vulnerable.

They will have the same problem in Pennsylvania in the Philly suburbs.  You cant make PA-06 any more Republican without making PA-07 a likely Democratic pickup again.  In the Southwest, you cant make PA-04 or PA-12 anymore Republican without endangering PA-18.

[SamInTheSouth]

Its not possible.  As it is, PA-11 would probably throw Barletta out in 2012 on Obama's coattails

If Obama keeps doing the same "bang up" job he's doing now, there won't be any Obama coattails for Republicans to worry about. 

[Mr.Phips]

Its not possible.  As it is, PA-11 would probably throw Barletta out in 2012 on Obama's coattails

If Obama keeps doing the same "bang up" job he's doing now, there won't be any Obama coattails for Republicans to worry about. 

If Republicans end up controlling Congress, there WILL be coattails.  They will be as unpopular as the flu and responsible for anything that goes wrong over the next two years. 

[SamInTheSouth]

The Democrats were not held responsible for the things that went wrong in 2007 and 2008 when they controlled the Congress and Bush was in the White House.  They gained even more seats in 2008.

[Mr.Phips]

The Democrats were not held responsible for the things that went wrong in 2007 and 2008 when they controlled the Congress and Bush was in the White House.  They gained even more seats in 2008.

That's because Democrats in 2007-2008 were smart(or stupid in retrospect) enough to look moderate and not extreme to voters, unlike Republicans in 1995 and 1996.  I doubt Republicans will be able to hold back the way Democrats did. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Its not possible.  As it is, PA-11 would probably throw Barletta out in 2012 on Obama's coattails

If Obama keeps doing the same "bang up" job he's doing now, there won't be any Obama coattails for Republicans to worry about. 

If Republicans end up controlling Congress, there WILL be coattails.  They will be as unpopular as the flu and responsible for anything that goes wrong over the next two years. 

Politics just doesn't work that way. Obama will help insulate congressional Republicans.

In any case, I think Barletta could probably withstand an unusually pro-Dem district. I think he'd play well in this part of the state. Anyway. Redistricting in PA is a republican gut check. Do you retreat to the bunker and try and protect a select few? Or do you roll the dice and hope that incumbency will carry the day, and accept eventual losses as part of life. The GOP got burned by their map in 2006, but without those current lines, they wouldn't be positioned for the kind of 3-6 seat jackpot they might score this year.

[Mr.Phips]

Its not possible.  As it is, PA-11 would probably throw Barletta out in 2012 on Obama's coattails

If Obama keeps doing the same "bang up" job he's doing now, there won't be any Obama coattails for Republicans to worry about. 

If Republicans end up controlling Congress, there WILL be coattails.  They will be as unpopular as the flu and responsible for anything that goes wrong over the next two years. 

Politics just doesn't work that way. Obama will help insulate congressional Republicans.

In any case, I think Barletta could probably withstand an unusually pro-Dem district. I think he'd play well in this part of the state. Anyway. Redistricting in PA is a republican gut check. Do you retreat to the bunker and try and protect a select few? Or do you roll the dice and hope that incumbency will carry the day, and accept eventual losses as part of life. The GOP got burned by their map in 2006, but without those current lines, they wouldn't be positioned for the kind of 3-6 seat jackpot they might score this year.

If they keep the same map, four or six seats could easily go back to Democrats in 2012.  And keep in mind that they are going to have to cut a district.  Trying to cut a Dem district is going to be very difficult unless Critz and Altmire both survive, and even then it would be difficult.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its not possible.  As it is, PA-11 would probably throw Barletta out in 2012 on Obama's coattails

If Obama keeps doing the same "bang up" job he's doing now, there won't be any Obama coattails for Republicans to worry about. 

If Republicans end up controlling Congress, there WILL be coattails.  They will be as unpopular as the flu and responsible for anything that goes wrong over the next two years. 

Politics just doesn't work that way. Obama will help insulate congressional Republicans.

In any case, I think Barletta could probably withstand an unusually pro-Dem district. I think he'd play well in this part of the state. Anyway. Redistricting in PA is a republican gut check. Do you retreat to the bunker and try and protect a select few? Or do you roll the dice and hope that incumbency will carry the day, and accept eventual losses as part of life. The GOP got burned by their map in 2006, but without those current lines, they wouldn't be positioned for the kind of 3-6 seat jackpot they might score this year.

If they keep the same map, four or six seats could easily go back to Democrats in 2012.  And keep in mind that they are going to have to cut a district.  Trying to cut a Dem district is going to be very difficult unless Critz and Altmire both survive, and even then it would be difficult.

Its not that hard actually to hold some of those seats once captured. The 3rd, 4th, and 10th shouldn't be hard to hold if captured. The seventh, eitgth and eleventh could be captured. But I don't see "Four or six easily going dem in 2012", barring a 61% win for Obama like LBJ or Nixon. Barletta would put up a hell of a fight in the 11th and once in, I don't see any Republican being dislodged from the current tenth, it took one hell of a big scandal and a landslide nationwide to win it by 6 points in 2006.

[Mr.Phips]

Its not possible.  As it is, PA-11 would probably throw Barletta out in 2012 on Obama's coattails

If Obama keeps doing the same "bang up" job he's doing now, there won't be any Obama coattails for Republicans to worry about. 

If Republicans end up controlling Congress, there WILL be coattails.  They will be as unpopular as the flu and responsible for anything that goes wrong over the next two years. 

Politics just doesn't work that way. Obama will help insulate congressional Republicans.

In any case, I think Barletta could probably withstand an unusually pro-Dem district. I think he'd play well in this part of the state. Anyway. Redistricting in PA is a republican gut check. Do you retreat to the bunker and try and protect a select few? Or do you roll the dice and hope that incumbency will carry the day, and accept eventual losses as part of life. The GOP got burned by their map in 2006, but without those current lines, they wouldn't be positioned for the kind of 3-6 seat jackpot they might score this year.

If they keep the same map, four or six seats could easily go back to Democrats in 2012.  And keep in mind that they are going to have to cut a district.  Trying to cut a Dem district is going to be very difficult unless Critz and Altmire both survive, and even then it would be difficult.

Its not that hard actually to hold some of those seats once captured. The 3rd, 4th, and 10th shouldn't be hard to hold if captured. The seventh, eitgth and eleventh could be captured. But I don't see "Four or six easily going dem in 2012", barring a 61% win for Obama like LBJ or Nixon. Barletta would put up a hell of a fight in the 11th and once in, I don't see any Republican being dislodged from the current tenth, it took one hell of a big scandal and a landslide nationwide to win it by 6 points in 2006.

The current tenth would have to be made less Republican if Republicans wanted to protect Barletta. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its not possible.  As it is, PA-11 would probably throw Barletta out in 2012 on Obama's coattails

If Obama keeps doing the same "bang up" job he's doing now, there won't be any Obama coattails for Republicans to worry about. 

If Republicans end up controlling Congress, there WILL be coattails.  They will be as unpopular as the flu and responsible for anything that goes wrong over the next two years. 

Politics just doesn't work that way. Obama will help insulate congressional Republicans.

In any case, I think Barletta could probably withstand an unusually pro-Dem district. I think he'd play well in this part of the state. Anyway. Redistricting in PA is a republican gut check. Do you retreat to the bunker and try and protect a select few? Or do you roll the dice and hope that incumbency will carry the day, and accept eventual losses as part of life. The GOP got burned by their map in 2006, but without those current lines, they wouldn't be positioned for the kind of 3-6 seat jackpot they might score this year.

If they keep the same map, four or six seats could easily go back to Democrats in 2012.  And keep in mind that they are going to have to cut a district.  Trying to cut a Dem district is going to be very difficult unless Critz and Altmire both survive, and even then it would be difficult.

Its not that hard actually to hold some of those seats once captured. The 3rd, 4th, and 10th shouldn't be hard to hold if captured. The seventh, eitgth and eleventh could be captured. But I don't see "Four or six easily going dem in 2012", barring a 61% win for Obama like LBJ or Nixon. Barletta would put up a hell of a fight in the 11th and once in, I don't see any Republican being dislodged from the current tenth, it took one hell of a big scandal and a landslide nationwide to win it by 6 points in 2006.

The current tenth would have to be made less Republican if Republicans wanted to protect Barletta. 

Read the highlighted sentence, made by you. If they used the current may (impossible b/c of the lost of a district but lets just humor ourselves). There is no way the "current 10th" would toss out a incumbent republican barring a scandal and a Dem wave at the same time. Thats what it took to get rid of Sherwood and then only be 6 points.