worst gerrymander state

[Fritz]

I was looking in the election maps for state congressional district maps, like the one I posted of Arizona.  It seems that Dave Leip does not make them for every state...there is not one for Florida, or Illinois.  California and North Carolina do have them, though.  Maybe he just doesn't bother with the really hard ones.

Regarding Arizona, I was just wondering, does anybody actually live inside that river-like strip that connects the two pieces of district 2?

[Free Palestine]

I was looking in the election maps for state congressional district maps, like the one I posted of Arizona.  It seems that Dave Leip does not make them for every state...there is not one for Florida, or Illinois.  California and North Carolina do have them, though.  Maybe he just doesn't bother with the really hard ones.

Regarding Arizona, I was just wondering, does anybody actually live inside that river-like strip that connects the two pieces of district 2?

It's a road or a highway, apparently.

[minionofmidas]

I was looking in the election maps for state congressional district maps, like the one I posted of Arizona.  It seems that Dave Leip does not make them for every state...there is not one for Florida, or Illinois.  California and North Carolina do have them, though.  Maybe he just doesn't bother with the really hard ones.

Regarding Arizona, I was just wondering, does anybody actually live inside that river-like strip that connects the two pieces of district 2?

There are three pieces. Or technically four, actually: part of the Phoenix metro with, like, 80% of the population; Mojave County which they didn't know where else to put (the connecting strip here doesn't look as weird as the much longer one east of it, but is wholly uninhabited); the Hopi enclave of Moenkopi which is on the Navajo reservation but whose residents are enrolled at Hopi (roughly after two thirds of the long connecting strip), and the Hopi Reservation.

There are a handful of mostly Navajo residents in the long connecting strip outside of Moenkopi. Like, low double digits.

[jimrtex]

Regarding Arizona, I was just wondering, does anybody actually live inside that river-like strip that connects the two pieces of district 2?

74.7% of the population of the district is in Maricopa County (Glendale, Peoria, Sun City, Suprise, Goodyear, and a bit of Phoenix)

24.2% is Mojave County (NW arizona, including Lake Havasu City and Bullhead City)

23 people are in La Paz County (Maricopa and Mojave counties are not adjacent, so there is a connector strip).

1 person is in Yavapai County.  This is north of the Phoenix part of the district, so apparently some city extends into Yavapai County.

About 0.1% of the district is on the Havasupai Reservation at the western end of the Grand Canyon.  This is the small bulge that leads into the thread part of the district.

The thread-like part of the district is the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon for about 40 miles.  The census bureau has defined the river as being in two census blocks (there are different census tracts on the north and south rims, with the boundary being the center of the river, and the river blocks being on the edges of the census tracts.  So the length to width ratio of this part of the district is a few 1000 to 1.

Once the river turns north, you have reached the Navajo Reservation.  The district crosses about 60 miles of reservation in an agglomeration of census blocks to reach the Moenkopi exclave just south of Tuba City.  These were apparently chosen to avoid population as much as possible.  There are 14 persons on the Navajo Reservation in District 2 (over 104,000 in District 1).

About 0.15% live in Moenkopi exclave just south of Tuba City,

0.9% live on the Hopi reservation proper.  Most are in Navajo County, with under 100 in the Coconino County portion.  The western edge of the Hopi Reservation is the north-south line.

There is also a tiny tab of Coconino  County extending east from Mojave County just south of the Utah border, to include all of the Kaibab reservation, with 5 people.

[Bacon King]

Don't forget about this 1990's era monstrosity, guys!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jim needs to post his pictures of the Frostrocity again, just to make us all a little bit sick.

[Dgov]

Here's a question:  What do you think is going to be the worst-Gerrymandered state after 2011?

My Bet Is Colorado, where the Democrats look likely to hold on to all parts of the process, and can draw a 5-2 Map is they decide to split up Denver into the surrounding Suburbs.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a question:  What do you think is going to be the worst-Gerrymandered state after 2011?

My Bet Is Colorado, where the Democrats look likely to hold on to all parts of the process, and can draw a 5-2 Map is they decide to split up Denver into the surrounding Suburbs.

I can guarantee you it'll be a bigger state than that. New York will probably look worse if the Democrats get the trifecta. Ohio will probably be another mess. If Sink loses and the redistricting initiative fails in Florida, it'll look terrible again.

[Mr.Phips]

Here's a question:  What do you think is going to be the worst-Gerrymandered state after 2011?

My Bet Is Colorado, where the Democrats look likely to hold on to all parts of the process, and can draw a 5-2 Map is they decide to split up Denver into the surrounding Suburbs.

I can guarantee you it'll be a bigger state than that. New York will probably look worse if the Democrats get the trifecta. Ohio will probably be another mess. If Sink loses and the redistricting initiative fails in Florida, it'll look terrible again.

Maryland will likely be another mess as well. 

[tpfkaw]

Massachusetts will look like a mess if Patrick wins - and will probably still look like a mess if Baker wins, given the Democrats' supermajority in both chambers.

[muon2]

Here's a question:  What do you think is going to be the worst-Gerrymandered state after 2011?

My Bet Is Colorado, where the Democrats look likely to hold on to all parts of the process, and can draw a 5-2 Map is they decide to split up Denver into the surrounding Suburbs.

The wrinkle in CO will be if they need to make an hispanic-majority district to comply with the VRA. The population may just reach the threshold, but may just be short as well. I assume that the Dems would argue that Hispanics are successful with their candidates looking at the Salazars. I don't know if there are counter-examples of bloc voting at lower levels.

[Dgov]

Here's a question:  What do you think is going to be the worst-Gerrymandered state after 2011?

My Bet Is Colorado, where the Democrats look likely to hold on to all parts of the process, and can draw a 5-2 Map is they decide to split up Denver into the surrounding Suburbs.

The wrinkle in CO will be if they need to make an hispanic-majority district to comply with the VRA. The population may just reach the threshold, but may just be short as well. I assume that the Dems would argue that Hispanics are successful with their candidates looking at the Salazars. I don't know if there are counter-examples of bloc voting at lower levels.

Well, there's also the question of whether or not the Obama DOJ would ever actually require that where it might hurt the Democrats.  It's on the threshold, and the Salazars are enough of a reason to refuse it.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's a question:  What do you think is going to be the worst-Gerrymandered state after 2011?

My Bet Is Colorado, where the Democrats look likely to hold on to all parts of the process, and can draw a 5-2 Map is they decide to split up Denver into the surrounding Suburbs.

The wrinkle in CO will be if they need to make an hispanic-majority district to comply with the VRA. The population may just reach the threshold, but may just be short as well. I assume that the Dems would argue that Hispanics are successful with their candidates looking at the Salazars. I don't know if there are counter-examples of bloc voting at lower levels.

Oh, but such glorious possibilities exist! Personally, I think the following one would be rather entertaining.





CD-5 in this plan is 51% Hispanic (using estimates). In some cases, the district numbers do not correspond to the current districts because I wanted to use a contrasting color with the population by race layer enabled.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A Hispanic majority seat wouldn't really hurt the Democrats in Colorado. CD 1 now is about 30% Hispanic, and the whites are just as Democratic as the Hispanic voters. Add an extra 20% Hispanics too it, and the "displaced" whites go to another district, and make it more safe. It'd probably shore up CD 7 for good.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

A Hispanic majority seat wouldn't really hurt the Democrats in Colorado. CD 1 now is about 30% Hispanic, and the whites are just as Democratic as the Hispanic voters. Add an extra 20% Hispanics too it, and the "displaced" whites go to another district, and make it more safe. It'd probably shore up CD 7 for good.

Exactly. Forcing a Hispanic-majority district would give the Democrats a perfect excuse to split Denver between two (or even, as in my example, three) districts. As I've demonstrated, it could shore up not only the 7th, but also the 4th.

[Verily]

This is a much more aggressive Democratic gerrymander of Colorado, with the majority-Hispanic CO-01.

CO-02 contains almost all of the population in Boulder County, so it's still solidly Democratic. CO-04 gets the areas of Denver and Aurora with non-negligible black populations, while CO-07 gets the heavily white parts of Denver. CO-06, of course, swings around the northern end of the state to take in Grand Junction. Unfortunately, the only road through the mountains that far north runs right through Steamboat Springs (Routt County), so it gets stuck in an ultra-Republican district. Otherwise, CO-03 is a crazy coalition of all of the ski bunnies and all of the south Colorado Hispanics that should now, with the omission of Grand Junction, be pretty safely Democratic.

[Verily]

Also note, if Betsy Markey loses reelection, Fort Collins and Greeley could be combined with Boulder in CO-02 and CO-04 made a Denver metro district (take in more of Arapahoe County from CO-07, shift CO-07 north in Jefferson County).

[muon2]

This is a much more aggressive Democratic gerrymander of Colorado, with the majority-Hispanic CO-01.

CO-02 contains almost all of the population in Boulder County, so it's still solidly Democratic. CO-04 gets the areas of Denver and Aurora with non-negligible black populations, while CO-07 gets the heavily white parts of Denver. CO-06, of course, swings around the northern end of the state to take in Grand Junction. Unfortunately, the only road through the mountains that far north runs right through Steamboat Springs (Routt County), so it gets stuck in an ultra-Republican district. Otherwise, CO-03 is a crazy coalition of all of the ski bunnies and all of the south Colorado Hispanics that should now, with the omission of Grand Junction, be pretty safely Democratic.

It seems that the best the Dems can do is a 5-2 split. If so, I would think that a solid 5-2 split that was a little less aggressive is a more likely scenario.

[jimrtex]

Here's a question:  What do you think is going to be the worst-Gerrymandered state after 2011?

My Bet Is Colorado, where the Democrats look likely to hold on to all parts of the process, and can draw a 5-2 Map is they decide to split up Denver into the surrounding Suburbs.

The wrinkle in CO will be if they need to make an hispanic-majority district to comply with the VRA. The population may just reach the threshold, but may just be short as well. I assume that the Dems would argue that Hispanics are successful with their candidates looking at the Salazars. I don't know if there are counter-examples of bloc voting at lower levels.

Oh, but such glorious possibilities exist! Personally, I think the following one would be rather entertaining.





CD-5 in this plan is 51% Hispanic (using estimates). In some cases, the district numbers do not correspond to the current districts because I wanted to use a contrasting color with the population by race layer enabled.

Which district does DeGette run in?

[Frink]

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's a question:  What do you think is going to be the worst-Gerrymandered state after 2011?

My Bet Is Colorado, where the Democrats look likely to hold on to all parts of the process, and can draw a 5-2 Map is they decide to split up Denver into the surrounding Suburbs.

The wrinkle in CO will be if they need to make an hispanic-majority district to comply with the VRA. The population may just reach the threshold, but may just be short as well. I assume that the Dems would argue that Hispanics are successful with their candidates looking at the Salazars. I don't know if there are counter-examples of bloc voting at lower levels.

Oh, but such glorious possibilities exist! Personally, I think the following one would be rather entertaining.





CD-5 in this plan is 51% Hispanic (using estimates). In some cases, the district numbers do not correspond to the current districts because I wanted to use a contrasting color with the population by race layer enabled.

Which district does DeGette run in?

My guess would be probably the 5th. Possibly the 4th if Markey loses and if she felt threatened by a Hispanic in the primary. In the 7th she'd have a primary fight with Perlmutter.

[muon2]

As bad as IL-4 looks, the it actually survived a court challenge. It's a Hispanic majority district, but the two main Hispanic populations are separated by a black area. A direct connection of the Hispanic areas would deny the existence of one of the black districts. The court found that there a compelling state interest to address the needs of the minority communities under section 2 of the VRA.

A better example from IL would be the the 17th. There's no reason other than partisan protection to justify its shape. The link through Springfield is one block wide.

[Verily]

This is a much more aggressive Democratic gerrymander of Colorado, with the majority-Hispanic CO-01.

CO-02 contains almost all of the population in Boulder County, so it's still solidly Democratic. CO-04 gets the areas of Denver and Aurora with non-negligible black populations, while CO-07 gets the heavily white parts of Denver. CO-06, of course, swings around the northern end of the state to take in Grand Junction. Unfortunately, the only road through the mountains that far north runs right through Steamboat Springs (Routt County), so it gets stuck in an ultra-Republican district. Otherwise, CO-03 is a crazy coalition of all of the ski bunnies and all of the south Colorado Hispanics that should now, with the omission of Grand Junction, be pretty safely Democratic.

It seems that the best the Dems can do is a 5-2 split. If so, I would think that a solid 5-2 split that was a little less aggressive is a more likely scenario.

I think this is the only solid 5-2 split that can be managed. No other map makes CO-03 safe for the Democrats (nor CO-04, which is not safe on jimrtex's map although less vulnerable).

I do have an alternative better-looking map for if Betsy Markey loses, though. Diana DeGette can then slide into CO-04 and allow a Hispanic to replace her in CO-01 instead of having her represent a majority-Hispanic district.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

The one Bacon King put up is staggering.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This is a much more aggressive Democratic gerrymander of Colorado, with the majority-Hispanic CO-01.

CO-02 contains almost all of the population in Boulder County, so it's still solidly Democratic. CO-04 gets the areas of Denver and Aurora with non-negligible black populations, while CO-07 gets the heavily white parts of Denver. CO-06, of course, swings around the northern end of the state to take in Grand Junction. Unfortunately, the only road through the mountains that far north runs right through Steamboat Springs (Routt County), so it gets stuck in an ultra-Republican district. Otherwise, CO-03 is a crazy coalition of all of the ski bunnies and all of the south Colorado Hispanics that should now, with the omission of Grand Junction, be pretty safely Democratic.

It seems that the best the Dems can do is a 5-2 split. If so, I would think that a solid 5-2 split that was a little less aggressive is a more likely scenario.

I think this is the only solid 5-2 split that can be managed. No other map makes CO-03 safe for the Democrats (nor CO-04, which is not safe on jimrtex's map although less vulnerable).

I do have an alternative better-looking map for if Betsy Markey loses, though. Diana DeGette can then slide into CO-04 and allow a Hispanic to replace her in CO-01 instead of having her represent a majority-Hispanic district.

I was considering drawing something similar to your alternative plan. If Markey loses, Coffman would be the obvious odd one out.